Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Nothing wrong with nice spring days up in the 20s, but I don't understand the sun worshippers who want it to be 35c everyday.

The fact is that more people die in heatwaves than any other natural disaster on the face of the planet and after so many years of warmer weather and less rainfall, any rain we do get is always a cause for celebration. Just my opinion.

The Watto wrote:The weather is changing dramatically in SE Australia and looks like its going to be more dry and hot here unfortunatly. Plus there is an El Nino kicking off and there has been mutliple occasions when this type of pattern has ended in nothing.

We had some nice lightning action a few weeks ago, and hot weather is nothing new for this time of year either.

There has been multiple occasions where this type of pattern has ended with more than expected as well.

I personally like dry and hot weather, as long as it finishes with a good bang, so maybe that is what we are going to get here, hopefully anyway. Otherwise, yes I will be disappointed, because it does get a bit boring if it becomes a predictable pattern, but luckily we live in Melbourne, so it will always be relatively unpredictable.

Watto

OK I understand this statement as I for one hate the heat and dry weather and do not apologise for it one bit. But I know there are more people that would tend to like this weather and that is just the way it is. But there are people on here who love the dry and heat and hot weather and that is completely normal. I understand the statement and that's fine. Honesty is respected here.

But when speaking honestly, speak a bit about yourself and what you like in terms of weather cause to me I have no idea who you are as a person, your likes and dislikes and where you are coming from. To me this statement comes out of nowhere and is a bit random, but I do get the general thread of what your saying. But in the same breath I do not want you to feel supressed because you may have a minority view on the weather...all views are accepted.

Watto, keep posting your thoughts, I for one push these events because they are exciting to me and I am passionate about not just storms, but rain, wind and cold outbreaks. I HATE THE HEAT!!! Thats just the way it is on this side of the coin.

BTW before leaving this topic, there is certainly no bias on this forum to particular weather when you have up to 12 pages on the current heatwave event and up to 10 on the heatwave event before and we are just seeing the other threads (rain) kick on now....

If you would like to discuss the forum more please direct it to the General Weather please. Any posts referring to this topic about the atmosphere of the forum will not be deleted, but moved into a thread tailored to this in General Weather, just to keep it relevant

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Not fizzling away yet this system, but certainly changing in it's origin and sequence. It could end up dropping 10-20mm but I would still be happy with that because at these lattitudes that is average for a system, but it tends to be looking a bit more than that.

That is all....

Well, this thread is obviously going to be biased towards discussion on rain and storms because it is the thread discussing the upcoming sequence of fronts/troughs. The heatwave thread is still open for discussion.

Still looking good. The GFS 06z run tends to downgrade things on average (has a habit of doing this) but still has 25-50mm through central areas. I would expect the scenario to be slightly different with different models and with each run also. EC has been holding the best for us so far and IMO it's still the best model and certainly the most reliable (it sticks to its guns more than GFS does), it did very well with the temps today, said 34C for my place and that's exactly what it ended up.

Looks like the rain and storms may be a bit more spread out now. A bit on Friday, a bit on Saturday, then the main rain Saturday night and then showery through Sunday. Monday morning looking cold now with 850T around the 0C mark.

I think I might add my response to Watto here, seeing that there is currently no GW thread started to discuss this and it follows on directly with the discussion of the last several posts. (Feel free to shift this Karl)

From my experience, people on here don't 'hate' heat. If it is within the boundaries of what has happened before and what is considered statistically normal then it is one of the benefits of living in the mid latitudes on the edge of a vast continent in that you get your fair share of heat and sun, unlike high latitude countries like those in Northern Europe, particularly island countries with a large maritime influence on climate like the British Isles (i.e. UK and Ireland) that can struggle to get a decent period of warm sunny weather in summer that drives many of the people there nuts. The South Island of NZ also falls into this category, higher latitude than here and maritime influence dominant, and also Tasmania to an extent.

The reason we are all 'into' the rain and cold side of things now is because our climate has dramatically turned in the last 12 years (but especially the last 6 years), to an extreme one with intense dry and heat at sporadic times of the year. Not only do we get hotter days than ever before during these heatwaves but they last many times longer than in the past.

When I was growing up in the 80s and 90s, it was very unusual to have more than a few days in a row above 35C in Melbourne full stop (let alone in November) and not every year would see a 40C in Melbourne. We would get long cool spells of weather interspersed with the odd burst of 30C plus heat and the occasional day in the mid to high 30s. Summer was usually a mixed bag with some months very dry and warm and others very wet and humid with tropical influence. Other months would be generally dry but with regular modest rainfall events. One thing I can say is that, on average, we didn't have extreme summers at all and the Melbourne average of around 26C for the warmest months confirms this. We may have had fairly intense heatwaves for a day or two or three but this was balanced out by much milder weather for longer spells than the heat.

Our climate now is absolutely ridiculous and doesn't even vaguely resemble southern Victorian weather of the past. It is almost like we've been picked up and relocated over the ranges into northern VIC/southern NSW. The damage this is causing to our environment and quality of life down here is potentially enormous and is well and truly happening already and has for some years. You know it is getting bad when you need to build a desal plant for basic water needs (like Dubai etc.).

Of course there are many places in the state, generally north of the ranges and only a couple of hours drive away that are intensely hot in summer and always have been. I'm talking places like Wangaratta and that area around the NE and of course further out towards Mildura in the NW. These places average low 30s in Summer and get weeks at a time between 30C-35C and days above 40C every year. That's not us though that's them.

To wish for intense heat of the kind we have been experiencing for most of this month is to wish for the destruction of our environment and rapid deterioration of our quality of life. No wonder people on here are so desperate for rain and cooler weather

Well spoken and put Andrew, I think I will leave it here because I think that reflects the feelings of most but I am sure there will be some more input down the track....

The mid level cloud is developing over the west and influx of moisture has begun over the west so we may start off with some mid level cloud about. If we can get some AccAs in the sky tomorrow morning and mid level convection, I think we may be in for a good day even after the wind change (shallow at this time) moves through.

Thanks Karl. I've re posted it into the climatology section which will allow for a full discussion without cluttering up this one and is a more than appropriate place for it.

I reckon the minimum has been reached here now, it got down to 18.5C not long ago but now up to 20C with calm conditions and clear skies and just a little bit muggy now. Expecting to wake up to a very warm morning as we get a massive peak in the hot air coming through with 26C 850T locally.



Definitely hoping for a humid cloudy day with an early change tomorrow or it could get frightening.

Nice mid level deck this morning with plenty of Accas and warm temps...going to be very humid today, or at least feel like it. I think we will get plenty of activity today as the mids are unstable and trough is the trigger..already showers popping up around Central areas...

Yeah I wasn't overly excited for storms because I didn't think much would happen today, but I get the feeling we may cop something pretty good early afternoon.

Woke up to what sounded like hail about 20 minutes ago (wasn't hail, just heavy rain), it only lasted about 15 seconds but shows the instability around.

Yeah, there's a lot happening in the middle levels. Humidity is fairly low atm though which is a bit of a surprise given the middle level cloud and convection. It's an insane 26C here atm.

Models still holding for some good rain but downgrading a bit. EC still looks the best with 40mm here with GFS going for a bit less, perhaps 30mm or so. Both EC and GFS are progging rain for today from the afternoon.

Is a great looking sequence for the southeast with GFS, EC and ACCESS all ramping up the rain. Also looks good for today now with rain thickening across the west and a few thundery showers already in central areas.

Is a really interesting sequence with three distinct systems interacting with the barocline which is parked over southeast Australia (and sits there for ~3 days). The first is associated with the wind change and currently sits over western Victoria. This sees rain spreading east today, but not big totals (maybe 5-10mm if your lucky). The second then develops ahead of a trough back south of Adelaide and brings more rain through tomorrow morning. The final and most active system comes through on Sunday associated with a front which then forms a significant low over easter Victoria.

Very impressed that ACCESS and EC have hardly change on this sequence for a few days now.

These systems tend to merge, and EC has 48 hours of non-stop rain in the Dandenongs.

Reckon we should see 40-80mm out of this sequence in Ferny Creek, and then there is more to come late next week (will be out spraying fruit trees and berries tomorrow as this looks like a classic downey mildew event).

BTW reckon today is probably our best chance for decent storms, though could see some heavy embbed storms on Sunday ahead of the front proper. Suspect in the south most things will tend to merge with cloud decks but could be clearer in the north and east.

Impressive mid level deck about with very turbulent bases. A bit of heating and this should increase this afternoon.

EC has rain up to 15mm here this afternoon and about 60mm for the weekend. Keep in mind with the warm state of our bay that this could be a 100mm event for the eastern suburbs if it comes off. Models don't pick up on finer details on orographics.

Today is our best chance for thunderstorms before it tends to rain overnight.

So whats the difference for us compared to SA as far as rainfall goes? They had massive rain band coming in from the strait, and yet it was all virga. I think the highest rainfall figure was only around the 6mm mark. And yet, we here in Vic, and progged to get 30+mm here? WHats the difference? I thought that given we have been hot here that there would be about zero to none chance of decent rain here this weekend? Where is the moisture coming from that i cant see? Dont wanna moz the system, but i really cant see much rain in this system, unless as Karl said you are in the Eastern Subs...

Karl Lijnders wrote:Impressive mid level deck about with very turbulent bases. A bit of heating and this should increase this afternoon.

EC has rain up to 15mm here this afternoon and about 60mm for the weekend. Keep in mind with the warm state of our bay that this could be a 100mm event for the eastern suburbs if it comes off. Models don't pick up on finer details on orographics.

Today is our best chance for thunderstorms before it tends to rain overnight.

Thats right Karl preety much hit the nail on the head there with a warm bay now the Global models like EC and UK and that don't pick up the bay streams with the showers and drizzle at the back end of this system and after the rain/system itself so could add another 10-20mm there easy especially on the North Eastern side of the bay.


Haven't checked Nogaps & GASP (seems to be playing up) but the main more reliable models have beefed this system up this morning EC still looks great UKMet now has 20-50mm across Melbourne, JMA has downgraded slightly as has LAPS but not cocerned about that, GFS looks rather steady and as DJ said the new model ACCESS has also been rock solid with this event. Had a good feel about it from thr word go with this system hasn't happend yet but just look at all that cloud on the sat pic and tell me your not licking your lips guys I certaintly am

I wonder if any of the models take into account virga? What's the web address of the Access model?

If we do get any rain today its going to be Mudrain. The amount of dust in the upper atmosphere is crazy up here, the sky is litterally brown...

Yeah the sky is brown here too you can see it through the clouds and through the sun when it comes out time to time. Looks ugly out there and very hot too 34c even though there is no wind here on the surface

Hearing reports of a fairly major dust storm ahead of the change. Not sure how much thats being blown out of proportion, but could be pretty yuck either way. Sky is turning rather brown here as well now, thinking anyone who washed their car in the last couple of days will be kicking themselves.

Agree with you Johnno regarding no wind. Just mowed the lawn, oops, I mean dust, and the dust would just hang around in one spot. By the end I looked like a cinnamon donut. Don't know if that rain on the SA border is rain or virga but looks nice, good to have something to actually look at on the radar.

Rhino.

Radar is showing lots of activity over SA but the current conditions shows no rain anywhere. On my drive to Edenhope this morning I saw a lot of rain but none was reaching the ground

35C here. Insane!!!

Quite a lot of dust imparing vision of the sky a bit.

Showers and storms in the mid levels building along the entire western border. That is hitting the ground. Further development over VIC this afternoon with the wind change.

Around what time of day today (and tomorrow?) do you expect storms Karl?

From 2pm Lily and continuing into the evening. Off and on tomorrow but nothing spectacular at this time.

Thanks Karl. There's a group of us travelling down to Tassie tonight, leaving at 4pm. As I've had delays and cancelled flights in the past due to storms, I'm just feeling a bit anxious about this afternoon as we need to get down to Tassie to meet people. Never mind, we'll have to wait and see

The wind change will have passed through the region by 4pm but there will be areas of rain through bass strait with some thunderstorms but confined mainly to the mainland and northern Bass strait.

Few showers developmg along the wind change.

36.4C now here!!