Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  damiantheomen on Mon Nov 23, 2009 7:10 pm

emptyting the tanks in preperation of the deluge, so guys hopefully your on the money for +30mm over the period as that will refill my tanks!!!! bounce
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:05 pm

norfolk wrote:yes I am wondering if this cloud will be staying around and so therefore possible storms popping up tomorrow?

Not tomorrow Tony because we are in the centre of the high pressure ridge so parcels of air will be unable to rise in the atmosphere. Wednesday there is a fair chance in the northern half of the state as the trough edges into the state. LIs of 14+ tomorrow so if the high cloud clears then it will be a cloudless day.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Nov 24, 2009 4:37 am

System still holding in the progs and if anything looking a bit better. Thursday looks to me like a cracker of a day - upper low parked over the top of Victoria with very high low level humidities. Would seem like the best action will be in the north and west, but everywhere should see something. Should see lots of wet storms, and probably fairly slow moving. Also nice and muggy...

Beyond that a deep low hanging around with showery/rain bands. Bit of uncertainty as to the final direction of winds on the various days but overall hard not to see most of us seeing at least another 20mm for the sequence. In these events I tend to find GFS often does better with the rainfall totals so it could be right with its widespread 50mm+

Have pencilled in 50mm for Ferny Creek which will take us to 130mm for November (how's that for confident Very Happy ).

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:08 am

Hillybilly.. 50mm penciled in...! R U emptying your Tanks.. ?
~40 filled mine, I not sure if Im ready to take that chance just yet.
I could use a lot of this water in the garden if it was in the bag.. Help.
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Rhino on Tue Nov 24, 2009 7:40 am

Gosh, looks like many areas will go from well below average Nov rainfall to well above average in the space of a week. Just goes to show, get the right conditions and it can all change quickly. Don't you just love the weather in Vic. Very Happy Models still looking great, almost nervous with anticipation, I guess we will get areas that will get flogged with these storms and some areas will miss out on them but all areas should get a nice drop. Probably will be good if the nth-west does'nt get much, farmers are hurting a bit from last rains. Sad GFS keeping most of the heavy stuff towards the sth by the looks.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  norfolk on Tue Nov 24, 2009 8:40 am

Not just in Victoria, I am sure SA is going from a very very dry month to an almost average if not Above average month in regards to rainfall too.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Malleefarmer on Tue Nov 24, 2009 10:05 am

Why is it so much of a surprise that we had a big rain event that turned it around? We are nearly into summer which means if you get rain, it is more likley to be heavier than cold weather rains. In our area anyway, the hotter it gets, the more intense the rain gets. The falls are more isolated but we can easily go from nothing to above average in a hour or so.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Sniper on Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:43 pm

This system is developing a touch quicker than forecast. Looks more likely that these storms will encroach further south tomorrow. Anywhere north of Seymour will have a fair chance of seeing some activity, especially in the Mallee and the North East.

Thursday is still a lock for widespread activity. 00z still showing very good LI's and CAPE around the metro areas, which will make chasing easier. If we get a day like today will minimal cloud cover earlier, it could resemble SE QLD Very Happy.

Unfortuntely I wont be able to get out, so good luck to those who are developing sore throats and are able to get out!! hahaha

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:54 pm

Bit worried about alot of cloud and messy stuff around Thursday Wes with areas of patchy rain which may not allow storms to fully develop but your right in any clear space and some heating watch it go off.

Few showers and areas of light rain on the North East border at the moment moving SSE BOM didn't see that one coming today

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:15 pm

Should be OK for storms but not clear air ones Thursday. They will come during the afternoon with a few showers and thunder developing early Thursday morning over C areas from the NW.

During the afternoon as the temp rises the convectioin will build in the inland with showers and surfaced based thunderstorms developing and spreading SE over C areas later and tending to a period of thundery rain with falls of ~30mm

Friday showers and storms will develop during the afternoon from the west with falls of 10-20mm about the place and reaching central areas during the later afternoon.

Saturday will see showers and the chance of thunderstorms develop mainly over C areas near a trough and ahead of a SW change.

This is all based on US currently with not other imput from the other models.

LAPS however has 20-30mm through the state to Friday 11am.
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:20 pm

Yeah Karl UKMet has a developing rainband with the front just West of Victoria on Friday morning so we could see that come through and interact with the humid moist air so we may see showers and storms even turning to band of rain on the front Friday afternoon I think EC has this too GFS doesn't seem to factor it in just yet.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Malleefarmer on Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:22 pm

Probably a bit of virga but there are echoes heading for Swan Hill atm. Warming up quickly here now the cloud has cleared. Hoping for others sake we miss the biggest falls up here and the wind picks up quickly and dries out the crops so that the damage is minimised. Even though I would love a storm for my own enjoyment, there are far too many crops vunerable up here atm.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:31 pm

Quite right John and EC has got Melbourne showers and storms turning to rain later Friday.
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 24, 2009 2:24 pm

Yeah lets hope so Karl would be handy additional rain!

Anyone notice how low the humidity has been in parts this afternoon?? Humidity down to 7% at one stage despite seabreezes in at the same time in the city this afternoon at 3pm and is still quite low other parts of Melbourne and the state is also showing the same thing. What would cause Humidity to drop this low on a day like today? Was there an overriding light Westerly wind flow/airstream wind earlier which caused Humidity to drop this much? Even still it seems extremely low to me given the conditions.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Nov 24, 2009 2:49 pm

Explanatory Notes
A ridge of high pressure is extending across the southern part of the State to a
high developing in the Tasman Sea, producing fine conditions over Victoria. High
cloud is due to a surface trough and associated upper level disturbance over
Queensland and New South Wales, producing rain areas and isolated thunderstorms
to the north.

During Wednesday flow will tend more northerly as the high strengthens and
conditions become warmer. The upper trough to the north will slowly extend into
the State from the northwest, with isolated thunderstorms and showers developing
in the Mallee late in the day. Conditions for the remainder of the State will
continue to be fine and warm, tending milder in elevated locations.

These storms and showers will spread throughout the State during Thursday as the
upper disturbance slowly moves east, with warm to very warm and cloudy
conditions in areas ahead of the trough. Showers will increase to scattered and
then tend to rain areas across most parts of the State. Apart from the far east
where rainfall amounts should only be light, moderate falls are expected with
locally heavier rainfall totals possible.

Friday will see a complex low slowly move across Bass Strait from the west. An
associated cold front will cross Victoria during the day, bringing cooler
conditions and a continuation of rain and scattered showers, becoming widespread
in the northeast. Isolated thunderstorms should also persist over much of the
State apart from Gippsland and the far east.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the weekend,
gradually easing from the west during the Sunday as the low complex slowly moves
into the Tasman Sea, and winds shift from westerly to a cool to cold southerly
flow.
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Nov 24, 2009 3:24 pm

Hillybilly.. 50mm penciled in...! R U emptying your Tanks.. ?
~40 filled mine, I not sure if Im ready to take that chance just yet.

Nah gardens boggie enough Smile

GFS looks to be bumping things up a tad, while EC has dropped the totals down. Is a very messy sequence for central/eastern areas with not particularly strong forcing so suspect showery/stormy bands will be the main event. Further north and west there is some good warm air advection which will should see rain areas.

A lot depends on the fine details with this set up which are still a bit uncertain.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  I_Love_Storms on Tue Nov 24, 2009 3:51 pm

I think Melbourne may pick up 10-30mm Thursday night, potentially higher if it gets hit by the core of a slow moving storm. It will be cloudy, but I think it will be so unstable that we won't need the clear air to produce some monster storms. CAPE 2200 is pretty considerable and LI -5 to -6, low pressure trough moving through as well, I am predicting fireworks.

I still think it will get to 30-31 as well, which will help.

It is a similar set up to the Friday night storms we had a few weeks ago, but the instability will be higher this time around.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Power Storm on Tue Nov 24, 2009 5:02 pm

There is still alot of things that are not clear from Thursday, and models are expected to change quite a bit more, but here is the totals I am expecting in each of the districts from Thursday for the entire event:

Western: 50-75mm, locally 100mm falls in some areas.
Wimmera: 25-55mm.
Mallee: 20-40mm.
Central: 35-60mm.
Northern Country: 25-50mm.
North Central: 30-50mm.
West & South Gippsland: 35-65mm.
East Gippsland: 20-45mm.
Northeast: 25-55mm.

Here is how I think conditions will pan out weatherwise...

Wednesday
Fine across most of the state apart from isolated late showers and thunderstorms across the northwest and parts of the northern districts associated with the upper level trough moving into that part of the state from inland Australia. High cloud should increase from the northwest tomorrow, however temperatures will remain quite warm with a northeasterly flow; so humidity levels should increase throughout and quite a bit of moisture to filter into the state.

Thursday
Cloudy across the state, however moisture levels will be very high and we should be in a general northerly flow ahead of an upper level trough slowly moving across the state from the northwest. Temperatures will remain quite warm on the surface. CAPE values are up to 2200 across parts of the state with widespread LI values around -2 to -4, with locally lower values down to -7. This is a strong indication for unstable conditions. So all in all, Thursday is a very good day for thunderstorm activity, particularly during the afternoon and this would be the day for people to watch out for severe activity - flash flooding would be the biggest concern. Cloud cover may dampen development a little, but I am personally expecting a good thunderstorm day. Scattered showers should also develop from the west associated with the eastward movement of the trough and this may tend to rain areas over the western districts during the afternoon and evening.

Friday
Very interesting as well. A low pressure system seems to move near the coastline of Victoria and move through Bass Strait, quite close with an associated low pressure trough entering western Victoria during the afternoon and evening. Again thunderstorm activity should be a feature, particularly during the afternoon and evening, though most activity should be restricted to the western districts closest to the trough. Very moist again and surface temperatures remaining quite warm. LI values are up to -7 again over the western districts, particularly southwest Victoria. Severe activity may develop again near the trough. I am expecting widespread showers for most of the state which will tend to rain areas for mostly the western, central and southern parts with locally heavy falls from about midday.

Saturday
Both GFS and EC have a second low pressure system near southwest Victoria. Again the environment is likely to be unstable with high moisture values and mild to warm temperatures. The low should slowly move eastwards but widespread showers will occur across most of the state with isolated thunderstorms. Showers should tend to rain areas again during the day with locally heavy falls developing, mostly western, central and southern districts. Colder west to southwesterly winds will be introduced from the west late in the day as the low slowly moves eastwards.

Sunday
Bit tricky for Sunday. At this stage I would say rain areas contracting eastwards on and south of the ranges with scattered showers to follow, before they as well ease late in the day and at night. A colder day with quite a strong southerly flow.

I will try and update the totals and forecast each day. Very Happy


Last edited by Power Storm on Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:17 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Nov 24, 2009 5:50 pm

Humidity has gone up rapidly. Went for a walk with the temp at 18C and quite dry air, came back with 16C and sweating as it's now quite muggy. RH% has gone up almost 10% on my sensor in the last 40 minutes. Almost right on cue some small middle level Cu popping up.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  DC449 on Tue Nov 24, 2009 5:56 pm

Okay so ill pencil in Thursday, We have been getting a lot of weather the past few weeks!
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  I_Love_Storms on Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:14 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:Humidity has gone up rapidly. Went for a walk with the temp at 18C and quite dry air, came back with 16C and sweating as it's now quite muggy. RH% has gone up almost 10% on my sensor in the last 40 minutes. Almost right on cue some small middle level Cu popping up.

It's interesting because the doppler radar is showing northerlies coming into play now in Nth Central areas.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  I_Love_Storms on Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:42 pm

GFS is continuing to lose its marbles, if this comes off we may see one amazing storm event on Thursday afternoon.

LI -7 on the same part of Western suburbs for at least 3 hours, and cape of up to 2600! I just hope that low pressure trough coincides with the instability.

Friday night looks very decent as well.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  samueliza on Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:48 pm

so what are the chances of a decent storm in point cook? Im actually headed to st arnaud on thursday for work- any action out that way?Might be able to follow some storms home. cyclops

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Greg Sorenson on Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:57 pm

Will be another back up system to keep us all tantalized. Interesting to note that each day we get closer the areas outlined in gfs has become more defined. Will have another look tomorrow and then i'll set my heart on this one.
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Sniper on Tue Nov 24, 2009 7:00 pm

Tomorrow is good chance for those north of the divide (Read Riki, Ned, Brayden). Thursday looking mint, pretty much all systems go, all about timing and location at this stage.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

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