Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

12mm for us from last night so overall a good result have to see what today/tommorrow brings.

we only scored 9mm last night. Cold Cell day today. A real spring day. 4 seasons in a day stuff.

South west starting to be impacted by some chunky cells. Not lightning active, however it will be interesting what Portland, Casterton & Hamilton register. Maybe 5mm, possibly some isolated 10mm falls.

Mt Gambier radar not updating at the moment.
Anything to report DarkEye?

Should see development ahead of that line through Central areas from 1pm.

IDV18600
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Fire Weather Briefing for Victoria
Issued at 10:45 am EDT on Saturday 28 November 2009.

Estimates Today:
The fire weather estimates look good. The main possible difference is
thunderstorm potential in the west today. There could be a bit more widespread
thunderstorm rains in the southern Wimmera District if the storms gain strength
in the afternoon. Wind already quite fresh over much of the state due to the
position of the low pressure in the west. A wind change arrives overnight,
which is expected to clear central districts Sunday morning.

Observational Network Status:
Western Port is offline, as is Mt Baw Baw.

Weather Situation:
A low pressure system situated to the southwest of Victoria will move eastwards
overnight, reaching the Tasman Sea Sunday morning. On Monday a high will move
from the Bight towards southern Tasmania and will still lie near southern
Tasmania on Tuesday as the low drifts slowly eastwards across the Tasman Sea.

24 Hour Rainfall to 9am:
Widespread rainfall across much of central and western Victoria. Totals of
between 5 and 13mm were recorded at a number of reporting stations. Very little
rainfall over lower elevations of the Northeast and East Gippsland.

Weather Today:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the east clearing this morning, but
further showers and possible thunderstorms redeveloping from the west during
the day. Cool to mild with generally fresh northwest winds.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Issued at 11:09 am Saturday, 28 November 2009,
Valid until midnight on Saturday, 28 November 2009.
Thunderstorms are possible throughout Victoria at various times today.

The most likely area is in the western part of the state associated with an upper cold pool, heavy showers are already occurring in this area. This cold pool is expected to move slowly east during the day, reaching the east at night. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are a small possibility with these thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms are also possible in East Gippsland ahead of a cold front which should clear the state in the next few hours.

Both Melb radars down now.
We're a shoe in to cop a storm now!!!

hillybilly wrote:Just 2.6mm down here in Sandy Point so a dud (pretty much as expected). Looks like about the same in Ferny Creek. Did hear any thunder.

The radar should be interesting from late morning on.

It's very interesting atm. Back to the stone age days of no radar, hopefully they can rectify the situation but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

8.8mm here in the end. Without actually adding it up we'd be on around 93mm for the month now. Should be another 15-20mm here for the weekend. I'm liking the look of the SE flow developing late Sunday and throughout Monday. We still have a warm bay averaging around 20C and precipitable water remains healthy considering the cooler air mass.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
DAY 2 THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Issued at 11:16 am Saturday, 28 November 2009,
Valid from midnight tonight until midnight on Sunday, 29 November 2009.
Thunderstorms associated with a cold pool moving east from Saturday are possible in the eastern parts of Victoria tomorrow. Note that this forecast is from midnight Sunday. During the day, thunderstorms are only expected in an area east of a line from Wilsons Promontory to Wodonga.

Typical dodgy BOM radars! grrrrrrr
Wind has really picked up out there.

and is actually quite warm! I was out at the shops earlier and it was warmer than I thought

Unbelievable area of cold air pool thundery showers through SA atm..should slowly makes it way over us this arvo, and continue through the night. Looks like they are moving a little slower than last nights activity, which shoould bode well for better totals.

And an amazing latest visual sat pic for Victoria...widespread convection ahead of the trough.

Only 15C here atm, humidity has eased right back along with the warmth (although still alright). Mostly cloudy, getting a few sunny breaks but not much. Once the cold pool moves in things will take off, I'd like to get a bit more sun and warmth into the equation though to really set up the lapse rates.

it's mostly sunny here, thats why it feels much warmer than what it really is

8mm to 9am this morning. 23 degrees currently but it feels a lot warmer in the sun! Some nice chunky cells across the southwest too atm. They should start affecting me by about 1.30pm to 2pm. As the afternoon goes on some of them should become thundery and perhaps a bit of development ahead of the showers as well.

EDIT - Just noticed as well that the BoM have a LAL of 2 for the western district.

norfolk wrote:it's mostly sunny here, thats why it feels much warmer than what it really is

22C in Melbourne so I'd agree with you Tony that is a nice temperature and would feel quite warm.

Showers only an hour or two away I'd say judging from the satellite, but the satellite is not quite the same thing as the radar is it.

Tullamarine radar up.

It's a real dud radar but it will do for now.

Some really nice, very low level convection happening atm. Kind of a cross between cold air and warm air Cu, could get very interesting.

Keep us posted Andrew, your the man with the birds eye view there for us here in the big smoke.

NW winds are as strong as a winters day here!!

Quite a decent amount of lightning - mainly CGs - over the border coming into W VIC. Also showers becoming thundery over C areas.

Its raining. Just got a real close CG. Thunder was about 2 seconds after the strike. A few km away! An interesting after to come! Lots more showers and storms developing.

Melb radar back up, timing impeccable!!

Messy cell over the bay. Looks like it could drop a few CGs.

Some thundery showers now down my end.