Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Greg Sorenson on Wed Nov 25, 2009 12:50 pm

i can see positives and negatives of the move, but i'm sure i'll be dipping across the border from time to time.

Back on track, big storms already firing in SA. Some of the crew are already on it, taste of things to come.
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Rhino on Wed Nov 25, 2009 12:58 pm

Latest GFS update out and probably could'nt be worse for Vic wheatbelt. 50mm-100mm+ running through mallee/wimmera. Geez, flash flooding and mildew anyone. Crying or Very sad Anyway if that's the way it's gunna go I surpose it might aswell don't it in a big way. Would be nice to get that heavy stuff move more east but still time for that to happen. Low placement as always will have a massive bearing on the heavy falls.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Sniper on Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:01 pm

Isolated activity appearing around Hay.
Mildura currently on 35/12 so it is primed to go bang!

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Power Storm on Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:06 pm

Was just about to say Wes that thunderstorm activity should start developing near Mildura and NW Vic in the next hour or two.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Stratospear on Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:26 pm

Both GFS and BOM (LAPS etc) have the heaviest falls between the Grampians and Edenhope. Rain over the Grampians wouldn't too bad as that would help water storages. The bluegum forest plantations west of the Grampians wouldn't mind a good drink either, but the crops around Nhill/Dimboola don't need it...

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Malleefarmer on Wed Nov 25, 2009 2:01 pm

Well just been getting the catchment dam ready for a filling....usually assured that when I do that we miss out so done my part for the neighbours still harvesting. Rolling Eyes very steamy outside and reckon I can see that more substantial stuff out to the NE coming this way. Storms from the north usually just dump down rain if they make it here and looks like we will cop them tonight. Charging the camera now and that will be the last thing that I can do to scare the storms off. Dad has one paddock of wheat on shares with a neighbour to harvest but since we don't have a header, we cannot take it off for them. Just gotta sit and wait and hope.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  norfolk on Wed Nov 25, 2009 2:25 pm

Not sure if this belongs here, but i will Smile

Interesting that today was cooler than yesterday, despite the fact it was supposed to be the other way around! Yesterday's dryness though may have played a part.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  mick on Wed Nov 25, 2009 2:42 pm

Anyone know where the smoke is coming from down here in the s/e? nothing of note showing on CFA.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 25, 2009 2:49 pm

Just some controlled burns in favourable conditions as fire breaks are being built around catchment regions over the next few days in higher humidity.

Looking like a wild couple of days.

Showers and thunder developing from the north overnight reaching the south of the state by dawn. Mainly light falls early. During the day as temperatures rise, showers and thunderstorms will increase, with locally heavy falls tending to rain from the north during the day along the central and western ranges. Some falls may exceed 50mm along the divide. Local hail and squally winds with thunderstorms is also likely. Humid with generally easterly winds away from thunderstorms.

Friday, the morning rain and thunderstorms will ease a little and break up by dawn leaving showers across the state. During the day as another upper disturbance moves in from the west, a band of severe thunderstorms will move through, reaching the west in the middle afternoon and the central regions by evening. A period of rain will follow with moderate falls as winds go more NWly. Scattered showers and isoalted thunderstorms over the east during the afternoon will ease by evening ahead of the next band of precipitation.

Saturday as a low winds up to the SW of the state, showers and thunderstorms will again become more extensive, mainly over C and E VIC with locally heavy falls. Showers will also develop over the SW with that also tending to rain by the evening with moderate falls. Becoming colder from the SW later as winds go SWly during the afternoon as a more developed low moves through Bass Strait.

Sunday, the areas of rain over C and E areas will tend to showers and become isolated from the west later as SW winds tend more SEly later. The chance of a thunderstorm in the east at first. Milder SW winds penetrating throughout the inland.
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Malleefarmer on Wed Nov 25, 2009 2:55 pm

A break in the mid level cloud has let me see the storms to the NE. They are mature now but more developing so I reckon by 10pm we will be seeing some storms about. Looking very ominous for farmers and there are headers going flat out all over the joint.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:10 pm

Incredible area of showers and thunderstorms moving into Adelaide.

Going to be some flash flooding about the Lofty ranges I think.

Now mention of storms on the forecast but under the STW. What terrible forecasting. Keep an eye on this area. Could get 20-40mm tonight!
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Petros on Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:25 pm

Looks to be another "not Gippsland" event but if we get 15mm or so over the next 4 days, at least its rain! Smile

On the other hand, theres still a couple of days for the system to deliver the low in a location that could change things dramatically for those in the states SE. Good luck everyone (except wheat farmers).
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  James on Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:31 pm

do you think we will get anything tonight in melbourne suburbs? - i think we might in the early hours depending on how fast its moving

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:50 pm

Might get a shower or two but nothing really I think til about 5-7am Smile
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  I_Love_Storms on Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:52 pm

James wrote:do you think we will get anything tonight in melbourne suburbs? - i think we might in the early hours depending on how fast its moving

I think it is moving fairly slow, but a few light showers are possible, anything could happen tomorrow day after sunrise though.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Anthony Violi on Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:57 pm

This is the difference ILS, with an upper level cold pool daytime doesnt matter as much as the instability is tremendous anytime, just more during the day. They will go all night and get wetter too with greater moisture...
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  AUS_Twisted on Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:13 pm

Was a nice sunrise this morning, best I could do from my place without having powerlines in view
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Power Storm on Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:34 pm

My latest update... Very Happy

Rainfall totals from Thursday:

Western: 50-80mm, locally 100+mm falls in some areas.
Wimmera: 50-80mm, locally 100+mm falls in some areas.
Mallee: 25-50mm, locally 70-80mm falls in some areas.
Central: 25-60mm.
Northern Country: 25-50mm.
North Central: 25-50mm.
West & South Gippsland: 30-60mm.
East Gippsland: 25-55mm.
Northeast: 25-65mm.

Here is how I think conditions will pan out weatherwise...

Wednesday Night
High cloud increasing across the state. Fine for most of the time though isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern parts, slowly extending southwards associated with the upper level trough moving into the northwest part of the state from inland Australia. Humidity levels continuining to rise statewide.

Thursday
Cloudy across the state, however moisture levels will be very high and we should be in a general northerly flow ahead of an upper level trough which will slowly move to western districts during the afternoon and to central parts at night. Temperatures will remain quite warm on the surface. CAPE values are up to 1000 or more across parts of the state with widespread LI values around -2 to -4, with locally lower values. This is a strong indication for unstable conditions. So all in all, Thursday is a very good day for thunderstorm activity, particularly during the afternoon and this would be the day for people to watch out for severe activity - flash flooding would be the biggest concern, but large hail and damaging winds are also a concern. Scattered showers across the state which should tend to rain areas over the western districts late in the day or at night.

Friday
Very interesting as well. A low pressure system seems to move near the coastline of Victoria and move through Bass Strait quite close, with an associated low pressure trough entering western Victoria during the afternoon and evening. Again thunderstorm activity should be a feature, particularly during the afternoon and evening, though most activity should be restricted to the western and central districts closest to the trough. Very moist again and surface temperatures remaining quite warm. LI values are down to -7 over the western districts, particularly southwest Victoria and CAPE up to 1600. Severe activity is likely to develop again, large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding being a big concern. I am expecting widespread showers for most of the state which will tend to rain areas for mostly the western, central and southern parts with locally heavy falls.

Saturday
Both GFS and EC have a second low pressure system near southwest Victoria. Again the environment is likely to be unstable with high moisture values and mild to warm temperatures. The low should slowly move eastwards but widespread showers will occur across most of the state with isolated/scattered thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon. Showers should tend to rain areas again during the day with locally heavy falls developing, mostly western, central and southern districts. Colder west to southwesterly winds will be introduced from the west late in the day or at night as the low slowly moves eastwards.

Sunday
At this stage I would say rain areas contracting eastwards on and south of the ranges with scattered showers to follow, isolated in the north, before they as well ease late in the day and at night. A colder day with quite a strong southerly flow.

Will update again tomorrow ... Smile

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Johnno on Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:40 pm

Thats some very optimsitic rainfall there Jake especially for the Gippsland area hope your right Wink Thanks for your input mate santa


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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:41 pm

Wish I had the next two days off quite frankly, although it looks very active right through Thursday and Friday night as Anthony mentioned. Whilst I hate to talk things up and then get disappointed, I really can't see this system fail to deliver all it is expected to and more. Getting a bit excited as I seem to be right in the firing line atm. 50mm GFS and 50mm EC, but as David mentioned this morning I think UK had near 100mm for west central and with convective rainfall and the humidity levels we are expecting there's bound to be locally much higher falls than what models are progging. Significant flash flooding very likely out of this, roads will be chaos.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Anthony Violi on Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:50 pm

Cannot believe the storm area moving into Adelaide atm...and plenty of cells firing off in the open air to the north moving down...will be interesting shear profile tomorrow morning, i think this has the potential to be the best storms since the infamous 2003...and the mind boggles at the rain band that should form later friday into sat...
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  I_Love_Storms on Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:02 pm

It looks like a Sth-East Queensland-type complex at the moment, looks like it is delivering a very good soaking. I read a comment from a reader on the Advertiser's website at 3pm, saying that a place north of Clare received 30mm+ in 10 minutes... Very Happy

It reminds me a little of the line we had a few weeks back on the Friday night, but a lot thicker...

I figure this low will only deepen as it moves south, is this what they are predicting?

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  I_Love_Storms on Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:20 pm

November 25, 2009 07:29pm

A STORM front that wreaked havoc in the Riverland is forecast to hit parts of Adelaide and the Mount Lofty Ranges within the hour.

The front hit the Riverland about 5.30pm. Several fallen trees have blocked roads and brought down powerlines, prompting multiple calls to the State Emergency Service for assistance.

More than 3500 Riverland premises are currently without power.

The damage was widespread throughout the region, with Barmera taking the biggest hit.

Incidents included a roof that blew off a building at Winkie and a building wall that collapsed at Loveday.

A tree has fallen on to a house at Ramco and trees have fallen on sheds at Barmera and Glossop.

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26400691-5006301,00.html

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  Malleefarmer on Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:59 pm

Well the storm heading for us died off and only got a light shower but another cell developed to the North and got some rumbles out of that. Still moving in from the NE so be watching that areas as the night goes on.

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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Post  DC449 on Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:45 pm

Ants are going crazy here, always a good sign!!!
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Re: Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

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