Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

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Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue May 19, 2009 5:08 pm

Can it be something possibly indicating decent rainfall on the horizon??

Looking at the latest batch of model prognosis, there seems to be a hint of a decent rainband spreading right through VIC early next week with embedded thunder and slightly cooler weather to follow ahead of another interesting disturbance.

Falls should be heaviest along the divide in this scenario and southwest of the state, the northern areas should do OK in this more convective style rainband. (10-20mm)

It is some way off but with copious amounts of moisture over the eastern inland, coast and adjacent ranges, a major trough and LWT to our west in the outlook, this will mean northerly winds will advect this moisture down through the next 96hrs and with some luck, anything sliding SE in the airstream (shortwave or cold front) could trigger some isolated showers and thunderstorms by Sat/Sun.

It is a tricky outlook but there is some hope. Looking at Perth's forecast there is some hope!!!
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue May 19, 2009 7:05 pm

Yes, you'd think that this time surely we should see some significant wet weather. The setup is perfect for a stack of moisture to be advected over us and the blocking pattern continues but by next week we just scrape into the influence of the LWT and possibly stay under it for a very long time, still who knows?

Just have to make it through the next week where we will be averaging summer temps, it will be the warmest and driest period ever for this time of year which will do a lot of further damage to the environment that you wouldn't normally expect coming into winter.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Wed May 20, 2009 7:49 am

A big wind back is evident in the totals for next week. EC now has 10-25mm while GFS and JMA are not much better than 0mm for much of the southeast.

The big dry looks set to continue.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Wed May 20, 2009 12:37 pm

Yes quite a bit of a downgrade in GFS, but EC is still fairly active and so is GFS in the long-term. At least we have signs of wetter weather developing over the next week or so. The next several model runs will be crucial to decide when the events will take place and whats going to accuratley happen with the event up north.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Johnno on Wed May 20, 2009 2:52 pm

Yeah models have downgraded alot EC still hanging on but others really have very little or nothing until later next week now

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Anthony Violi on Wed May 20, 2009 2:57 pm

Ever the optimist, i think its a really good sign as to what the Indian Ocean is doing these days. LAst month we have had our cloud band and moisture back, just havent hit the seewt spot with a mojor low as pre Se QLD.

Still looks like a significant LWT next week and given the amount of cold air about this year, its only a matter of time before everything aligns and we get a dumping.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Johnno on Wed May 20, 2009 3:18 pm

Hey Anthony how you doing? Sms you few weeks back didn't hear back from you hope all is well there.

Yeah EC still hinting it wants to give us some rain or even showers about Monday and still going for something decent in the Bight mid to late week. GFS also showing (in its own way) the mid to late week system. differance is GFS breaks the high dominance down bit quicker than EC, bit worried about the Ec scenario will have the power to push that LWT east to us later next week but if it does we may finally get the break we are waiting for but alot of if's there.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed May 20, 2009 3:23 pm

Looks like a bit of rain through Monday-Wednesday with falls of up to 5mm but could be something better later week but it is the same old story of the models pushing it further and further back.

We wait, but like I said yesterday, Perth is seeing a major event this week and we will soon as well.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu May 21, 2009 4:57 pm

The general pattern is looking better with the high crawling south and east at a snails pace it may let that low in from the NW and then things could get interesting with absolutely no movement with the general pressure pattern it leaves us open to some active weather for a prolonged period of time. Still can't figure out what causes these crazy blocking setups with the LWT stuck over WA and NZ indefinitely, the way we're going we'll still be talking about the same systems in August Evil or Very Mad . Surely that is not global warming related because WA is set to get smashed from this pattern when it shouldn't be doing any better than us under climate change predictions. It's almost like someone's having a bit of fun up there at our expense quite frankly.

Admittedly the next fortnight is very hard to predict with a fine line IMO between decent rain events and nothing.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat May 23, 2009 4:12 am

LAPS persists with 10-30mm through the west and north including Melbourne. I am not convinced with US showing little.

I like the developing sequence next week following the patchy rain with a moisture plume and front combining over WA.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Sat May 23, 2009 5:35 am

EC is pretty consistent with LAPS with 10-20mm through central areas. Wouldn't right this off for central areas, and the following showers could be handy.

Perhaps I'm just being optimistic...

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat May 23, 2009 6:06 am

I think given the trajectory and NNW flow - it will mean a good rain shadow will develop, unless the northerly eases then I think we will get little here.

I think your being fair, given the info DJ.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  PaulY on Sat May 23, 2009 8:26 am

Going by what Weatherzone has for us out here in Horsham, Sunday has a 95% chance of 10-20mm (which would be lovely if it's on the higher end of the scale). We need some water badly out this way...

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat May 23, 2009 8:57 am

Hi Paul.

I cannot imagine how dry it is. Let's hope you get up towards that 20mm mark as some farmers are waiting for they're crops that have been sown to be rained in.

With the Rocklands dam still at 1% it is beyond dire.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Malleefarmer on Sat May 23, 2009 5:46 pm

G'day everyone Just joined up you may know me a adon on WZ so just thought I would have a look here too! Hoping for some rain out of this one. Looking OK for a little bit but not banking on it just yet. Anyway will have more of a look later.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Sat May 23, 2009 6:38 pm

From the other thread...

System is looking very good for SE SA and western Vic. There is good upslide ahead of the low in north/northeast flow (despite the low weakening). The slow movement should see some good totals - possibly even some big falls (wouldn't rule out 50mm+ locally).

However, it weakens as it moves further west and the upslide collapses sometime on Monday/Tuesday. This should set up a sharp drop off in rainfall.

Central Vic is borderline for good falls - EC, NOGAPs and LAPS push good falls through central areas while GFS has it falling apart. Will be a frustrating day of watching the radar for those in central/west-central areas.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Sat May 23, 2009 8:22 pm

Yes well, models certaintly on to rainfall for western Victoria in particular, particularly GFS. At this stage I would say about 10-20mm falls across the entire western parts with a rain band, breaking apart into central Vic, which is not good but I think thats what its going to do, so I am generally following on with GFS there.

Further on the horizon, GFS is showing some great moisture infeeds from the NW of the country, so things may get interesting in a couple of weeks time, maybe a NW cloudband. Now I am dreaming, anyway, its possible and all wee need is a good cold front to latch into that moisture, which is what EC is showing - strong cold front and another cut-off that is. So things to watch.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Sun May 24, 2009 9:12 am

Just adding on to my above post with this mornings GFS 12z run, it has ramped things up quite a but for parts of South Australia at least with the NW infeed and disturbance, and IMO I think this is a good possibility of occuring, even reaching Victoria next Sunday or Monday. Something to watch anyway. bounce

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Sun May 24, 2009 6:29 pm

Latest GFS keeps on giving us that NW infeed, whilst EC shifts a front in, as does GFS. So things are looking more and more likely that we are going to move into a wetter phase for the SE of the country, particularly SA and Vic.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Tue May 26, 2009 7:25 pm

The latest GFS continues to push the NW infeed like mad, with well over 100mm of rain as it passes there from the mid-upper layers. EC is showing one hell of a cloud band as well, followed by a strong front, as is GFS and NOGAPS showing its own little scenario. So something to keep and eye on, and I think its going to be rain areas that develop again for the western areas at least, perhaps a wetter pattern developing over the western Vic? Very Happy It would be great too if some of the rain could move further east though.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed May 27, 2009 1:32 pm

I suspect that the next event will be mainly inland and then develop into a major ECL. Hopefully it can be southern bias and pump torrential rains into E Victoria and catchments. Perhaps a moderate rainband with the upper trough statewide.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Fri May 29, 2009 5:13 pm

Latest 00Z models are throwing out some very good predictions, particularly for the inland areas. It looks as if it may shift into Victoria midweek, with just some patchy rainfall in the state from Monday, beginning in the NW.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Sat May 30, 2009 3:53 pm

Well it is becoming a lot more clearer in general that we are seeing a big shift in weather patterns for SE Australia, including South Australia, Victoria and parts of Tasmania and New South Wales, with the latest model guidence still tricky to stay with. Its clear that by Monday some patchy rain will be in the west and north of Victoria, heaviest falls in the northwest, but by Tuesday we should see it spread to much of the state, and depending on conditions, it may stay that way until Friday. The northeasterly winds that are expected over Victoria from Tuesday are going to be very moist and unstable, so that will help the trough along and enhance conditions even more. Totals are very difficult to suggest at this stage, but for my conservative approach, I would say 10mm. Hopefully my thought on that changes. Even after this week, more rain bands look like they might develop across Victoria on Friday night and Saturday, followed by a low, so its getting interesting.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Tue Jun 02, 2009 3:13 pm

Well speaking of the next week for Victoria, things are looking good still with the trough situated over northern parts mostly and fantastic NE moisture feeds. Some good falls in the N and NE IMO to come. Even better after this trough passes, we should see a low move into western Victoria during Saturday, but the widespread showers extending far east of it to develop in the west on Friday night. It should then spread throughout on Saturday and continue into Sunday as the low slowly moves to east of Tasmania - thats looking at GFS, which I currently tend to agree with at the moment. Its also good to see a front come thriving through on Monday/Tuesday next week on the latest GFS. Also another thing I have noticed, its not really going to get that windy over the next week or so, maybe into Saturday for Victoria, but not too strong which is good. On another note, its good to see GFS showing signs of yet another NW moisture infeed late in its period.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Thu Jun 04, 2009 6:19 pm

GFS and to some degree EC are hinting at another possible NW infeed, whether or not they can communicate with the next front moving up is still yet to be decided.

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