Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:57 am

Perhaps a bit speculative but it looks like we may get another significant low for the SE next weekend. Again, a very messy system and taking some considerable time to pass through. Would be good to get a follow-up to the "rain" from the current system.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 08, 2009 5:26 am

EC has strengthened this system and now brings it through on Saturday with a complex low stalling over the southeast. GASP also has a similar set up. Only ~5 days out so confidence is building.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Johnno on Mon Jun 08, 2009 7:33 pm

Gday DJ, just wondering what you mean by that? Better rainfall? Or stronger winds with it than before?

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Tue Jun 09, 2009 3:18 pm

It is looking interesting for this weekend. Depends if the low can get a move along into Victoria without weakening heaps like both EC and GFS has. The west again looks to do the best out of this weekend, but then EC, and to some extent, GFS has got an increased period of frontal activity late in its runs.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:07 pm

Not interested in this weekend. Central VIC will miss out again. Both GFS and EC fail to carry the cut off over the state, it decays and shifts northwards after sitting near the western border. Can you believe things continue to get worse for us. Crying or Very sad

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Sun Jun 14, 2009 4:41 pm

After this weekend's poor effort time to look to the next possible event. At this stage it looks like a major low will develop in the bight mid/late this week and see some rain spread into Victoria on the 20/21/22 with possible showers to follow. This system look again like peaking over SA, so Vic is unlikely to get the best of it.

The models currently have a very deep low developing - down to 966 hPa in the EC at 45S so it certainly has some potential.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jun 14, 2009 4:59 pm

Well, it's a week out yet again so nothing much to discuss. Seriously not liking the continuing stagnant weather patterns with nothing reaching here. In all seriousness nothing has changed for here, the situation is every bit as bad or worse than it was in the middle of Feb. Every year has got worse and worse until finally we are in a 1967 like situation, basically we have hit rock bottom. Most disturbingly it is not due to a lack of moisture this time but fickle and slow moving systems in a generally stagnant pattern that is keeping the rain away from central VIC.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jun 14, 2009 5:24 pm

Though really isn't it strange how the weather patterns have changed, and by them doing that, it is allowing great rainfall and systems to peak over South Australia and western Victoria at times, but it just fills in by the time it reaches central/eastern Vic. Strange. Rolling Eyes

Well yeah a weeks time is worth a note with rain areas likely to be spread over Victoria, and isolated thunderstorms too with the initial rainband if something occurs.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Mon Jun 15, 2009 3:47 pm

Still looking very good in-terms of the longer term outlook. EC and GFS continue to show frontal activity from about Sunday followed by a major cut-off low and then perhaps another strong front after that. Lets hope that this time we see the low actually move over us without filling in too much.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:39 pm

Jake - agree this holds lots of potential - though again looks more like an SA/SW Vic system. It has been a really strange period of weather with a sequence of slow cut off lows and almost no progressive westerlies.

Will be a few days before the final set up becomes clearer.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jun 16, 2009 5:25 am

EC and GFS are still hopeful for this event though still a few days out - not really much happening until Sunday/Monday. Could be a little rain also on Saturday ahead of the first front spinning out of the parent low - this will be dying but will set up a brief period of upslide across the SE.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Johnno on Tue Jun 16, 2009 3:25 pm

Could this be the big one? Or we dreaming again? Anyway seems like both EC and GFS have stepped up next weeks system tonight with quite a distinct strongish upper low spawning from the LWT near Adelaide Sunday/Monday next week before slowly moving ESE/SE across Victoria and towards Tasmania by the end of it all looks to be quite a wet system if it eventuates. GFS has come more oboard this afternoon while EC has strengthend the system and instead of fading away as it crosses Victoria seems like this time the system holds if anything it even deepens both models seem like to develop it near Adelaide which GFS picked first and both models seem to move it ESE/SE which EC picked first which is good for us.

Before all this happens seems like theres a front Saturday which may still give some rain for the West and Moisture seems to come down from NSW as well ahead of the low Sunday & Monday into the trough linked to the first front anyhow the 1st system should help moisten the atmpsohere up ahead of that low so if it eventuates could help to deliver some fairly widespread healthy falls about still early days but better signs.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 16, 2009 3:35 pm

It does look a little thundery about the region Sunday/Monday. Could be a bit heavier than indicated so may have to watch what unfolds but at this stage it is a waiting game. Further decent rainfall for agricultural VIC which is brilliant!!! Just need it in the catchments Rolling Eyes
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Johnno on Tue Jun 16, 2009 3:48 pm

Well I'm going away next week so it will rain taking everything else out of it.. 9 out of 10 times when I'm fully preoccupied or away it does rain so on that lodgic alone watch it come down next week

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jun 16, 2009 5:38 pm

Certainly does show potential though latest EC does worry me - if the system goes north through NSW as is hinted we could miss out badly again and set ourselves up for another really dry month with much of state on just 50% of average. With an El Nino probably brewing in the Pacific we need some significant rain ASAP.

Also could be a pretty drizzly/showery weekend north of the divide with moist northerly flow. Might spill a little into the south.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Jun 16, 2009 6:24 pm

More like 35%-40% of the June average here to date. Once again we have been dudded at the time of year when we should be getting the best of it. Melbourne area tends to miss out initially on these systems but then picks up once the flow turns SW to S and showers set up in the vicinity of the bay, something which doesn't happen here at all unless we have a straight S or S/SE, (becoming increasingly uncommon). It looks like my area and parts of East Gippsland, particularly around Sale are the two areas that have really got the wrong end of the stick recently, (all year for us) and when the strong El Nino develops (certainly looks that way IMO that it will be a monster), we will suffer the most damage from it.

Once again we have plenty of promise in the model progs in the mid to long term, we seem to have something on the horizon almost all the time lately but it ends up a huge flop here every time. That's why I'm extremely cautious. On the surface it looks like a major LWT coming through with cut offs developing in amongst it along with cold fronts and the extended EC run has LWT domination for the indefinite future. From that you would expect widespread heavy falls across the state at some stage or another. The problem is it still looks really messy. The indications still aren't pointing towards a standard LWT passage with frontal systems, northerlies ahead of and southerlies behind but more of these crazy cut offs that seem to get deflected north at the first sights of VIC.

So, in summary, looks promising yet again, but I won't believe anything until I actually see decent and sustained rainfall hitting the ground.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Tue Jun 16, 2009 6:37 pm

Haha, it is a strange weather pattern isn't it. A lot of cut-off lows this time round. Well the model simulations are certainly cracking onto a nice weather event, both GFS and EC to that matter, quite substantial falls could come out of this event Monday onwards, partcularly the west to start of with. Strong low which is good and both models generally don't show it filling in like the previous million Laughing

Also good to see a front in the west on Sunday as I mentioned above.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Wed Jun 17, 2009 5:48 am

Can't remember a winter with so many cut-offs all peaking in the wrong spot for us - though maybe I'm just loosing my memory.

Progs still holding this system and going for an unusually prolonged period of unsettled weather - showers, drizzle, rain essentially right through from Sat to end of next week. Best of it will be in the west and about the NE ranges - would be pretty worried about the snow as this system has a very long fetch of moist northerlies which are more likely to produce drizzle and sleet than snow (though time will tell).

Reckon the weekend might surprise people - with some decent showers and drizzle particularly north of the divide ahead of the first dying front (which has a pretty decent upper trough attached to it).

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jun 18, 2009 4:56 pm

Significant rainfall is likely about the NE ranges over the coming week and the potential for cyclone-genesis is also likely to see rainfall heavy about the SE corner. At this point I am thinking that there will be a secondary cloudband develop mid next week and head SE from the interior, linking up with an upper cold pool and surface trough in SE Aus. This will cause a large surface low to develop and potentially widespread moderate to heavy rainfall.

Fingers crossed because it looks like C and E VIC could do well in the secondary sequence and that is good for the dams in SE/E flow.

Showery weather looks to be around for a while with cold temps returning a week from now.

Enjoy the sunshine and fingers crossed the rain comes this side of the border and avoids NSW!!! Well the coast anyway Wink
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Thu Jun 18, 2009 5:45 pm

Yeah everything is continuing to look interesting with heaps of cut-offs and Nw moisture infeeds/troughs. The first low though does show some weakening, but another one approaching behind it looks to be quite a lot stronger. Nevertheles, some good rain on the horizon IMO.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Walrus on Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:16 pm

I am a little worried about where this next system is going to draw its moisture from. Without substantial infeeds i am concerned we will all be jumping for joy after tipping 5mm out of the gauge. We are about 250mm short of average for this stage of the year so 80 - 100mm is what is needed. Latest ocean temps off NW coast are not looking good IMO. I am an optimistic person so I will give this system the benefit of the doubt......for now!!!

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:59 pm

Hey Wal,

I think that is a fair assessment. It just looks really tough to call but it is a matter of a few days away to know what we are looking at. The NE ranges look a wet spot for now, 10-20mm over the weekend likely with showers mainly in the afternoons.

Beyond that well it depends on where the low winds up and that is anyone's guess. It would be great if the low can move NW-SE across the state over the course of 3 days!! And then deepen off Wilsons Prom. Now that is dreaming.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jun 21, 2009 6:42 pm

Yeah noticed too David that both EC and GFS move the highs further north and east away from SE Australia later in their runs, allowing stronger cold fronts and cut-off lows through. It will be worth to keep an eye on for then.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Mantis on Fri Jun 26, 2009 9:08 pm

Not sure where to post this but what is that band of cloud streaming in from the Indian ocean , and does it mean anything ???

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Sat Jun 27, 2009 8:31 am

It's a bit of a NW moisture infeed mate. It looks like it wil taper out, but another may develop later next week so hopefully any fronts that can pass by can hook into the moisture.

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