Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  norfolk on Mon Jun 29, 2009 5:38 pm

we can only hope jake, we can only hope.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Malleefarmer on Sat Jul 04, 2009 8:34 pm

Looks like we may have a similar system coming up next weekend with another low with associated fronts starting to make their mark from Friday onwards. Both EC and GFS agree to this happening but GFS has it a little stronger and penetrating fruther inland. Still a while out I know but worth keeping an eye on anyway. Would be nice to have one of these peak as it get's to us and give some more consistant solid falls through the state. We at least have the chance I suppose. Smile

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Pengaz on Sun Jul 05, 2009 10:34 am

Yeah very early out but some encouraging signs for a strong event next weekend-both GFS and GASP prog nearly the whole state at 15-20mm which would be the much needed follow up event we need after this weeks rain. Would love to see it stall as it gets closer to VIC then develop into a Cut-off Low in Eastern Bass Strait-we havent seen one yet out here in Gippsland this year, after only half a dozen mm for June, im inclined to think its completely forgotten how to rain out this way. We're overdue for a decent 40-50mm event.

At least we've got something to look forward to I spose...

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Malleefarmer on Sun Jul 05, 2009 4:56 pm

Well Peng, you may well get want you want(well close to it). EC has it cutting of in the western straight. Still long way out but this is interesting

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Jul 06, 2009 6:56 am

Well EC has backed off with only a small cutoff developing in the bight south of Ceduna now. Looks like the weather channel is goin along with EC too as their 5 day forecast showing signs of it at the end of the run. GFS still going with a strong front coming through Fri/Sat with some nice rain for the Nth side of the ranges. What I don't like is the Low progged to develop off the SE Qld coast. Even though it moves away, I never like to see those pop up when we are in for a chance.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  DC449 on Mon Jul 06, 2009 3:25 pm

We just need something decent cmon...
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:51 am

Well yes models are on to another similar event to last time, GFS showing better outputs than EC at this stage so lets hope we get heaps of rain, things have changed now up in the uppers, it's finally changed to suit our needs... (though I have probably jinxed us now....) Wink

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jul 12, 2009 5:40 pm

EC is looking good again later in it's run for another cut-off low this time developing in the Great Australian Bight and moving across Victoria. Something to watch.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  norfolk on Sun Jul 12, 2009 5:42 pm

But then will this be any different than any other low we have had? Which will miss me all over again!

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jul 12, 2009 5:47 pm

Hopefully it will be different, I am hopeing for you and John mate. Worth an eye on it, because maybe in future runs it will be shifted to be just south of Vic and maybe you will do a lot better from the rain coming in from the southwest or south?

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  norfolk on Sun Jul 12, 2009 6:36 pm

rain coming in from the SW probably wont do much for us because we have all that land to the south west that would take all our water away! I really think we need something to come in from the SE so that maybe the bay might bring us something, but in all honesty, I don't know anymore.

A selfish question here and not sure if this is the right place to ask it) but WHAT would bring rain the us in the western desert of Melbourne? Would it be a consistens SE flow, or something else?

Tony

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jul 12, 2009 8:17 pm

A strong low just to the southeast of Melbourne with SE or straight southerly flow Tony (which is also a great setup for up here). Aside from that, thunderstorms in Summer often do alright over the west of Melbourne in certain setups. Strong cold fronts that come through with a wind change (more prominent in Spring), as opposed to the fronts that slide through in NW flow which brings the rain shadow into play.

Also prolonged unstable southerlies behind a cold front or low which brings showers up over the bay to all parts of Melbourne and surrounds.

These sort of systems will come eventually I reckon in the near future.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Johnno on Sun Jul 12, 2009 9:33 pm

Something even 1/5 of Feb 05 event would be great here at the moment anything even remotely related like that would put a dint into this massive dry weather out this way but thats what we need a cut off low east of us Jake with Southerly or a South easterly wrap around would make some inroads into this nightmare out this way.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Wed Jul 15, 2009 6:46 pm

Still a bit uncertain, but the next week has the potential to be quite productive for the southeast (though less so inland) with a quick sequence of fronts. First front pushes through on Saturday/Sunday, followed by another on Sunday/Monday, and then yet another on (about) Tuesday/Wednesday.

Rainfall totals are jumping around a lot, so still some uncertainty.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 15, 2009 8:48 pm

I think we will have to watch for these fronts developing into low pressure systems. I have a feeling they will.

Anyway this may not be a bad outcome for inland areas.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Jul 15, 2009 9:44 pm

Well, EC looks pretty good, particularly with next weeks progged system with a solid cold front passing right across the state and extending well inland. This weekend looks like it will slide south with more SW flow so mainly coastal and ranges and only very little in it you would think. Not too bad I guess. We need heaps more rain but you have to expect a bit of a quieter period at some stage. Good to see a complete absence of blocking highs though.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Power Storm on Thu Jul 16, 2009 7:32 pm

Models are still a bit all over the place for my like, but some interesting prospects about.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:31 am

Is some promise of a decent rain event for next weekend ~26th July, with a decent long-fetch northwest followed by a sharp front. Still a few days out but worth keeping an eye on.

Could be one of the stronger fronts for the year so far.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:53 am

Well if we can score 20mm on and south of the divide and catchments initially thus week then it could work out to be one of the more productive systems for the state this year. Looks very wild!
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jul 20, 2009 5:30 pm

Not wanting to jinx it but EC and GFS have ramped this into quite a doozie.

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jul 20, 2009 8:57 pm

What are we looking at DJ in terms of rainfall from your experience and perspective in these situations? It is a crucial system and lots of time between now and then. This first short wave sequence could set the catchments up for a bit of run off post the weekend sequence.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Farmer Fred on Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:28 am

Well looking for a dryish few weeks I think, which is a pity for the storages as they are primed for run off. Have had an excellent start to the season here so no complaints as long as we get some more rain in August and then a wet spring!!
FF

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:33 am

I think there will be 10-20mm over the coming week with an OK fall Sunday afternoon for the west.
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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Malleefarmer on Thu Jul 23, 2009 10:15 pm

I agree with Fred for up here I reckon we will have a week or 2 off from the wet weather. Might still get a bit south of the ranges and maybe over east but looking a little more settled up here for a bit. Hope it brews a big bugger when it comes back! Very Happy

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Post  Mantis on Fri Jul 24, 2009 4:21 pm

Yes, it looks like one of the dreaded blocking highs to settle over us from mid week for at least a week.
The run down the wimmera river was short lived Sad

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Re: Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

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