Victoria: Cold nights/Warm Days. May 18th-24th 2009

Well the long Indian Summer is continuing for us, despite a few drizzly efforts the past few days and weeks we need something big, nothing major til about this time next week.

In the mean time we have got a few very foggy days set to develop which is rather normal for this time of year as we go into SE/NE winds which pump maritime air in from the Pacific and cooler nights aiding fog formation (and pollution).

Looks to be a bit of cloud Wednesday with a little rain over the north and west possible but other than that nothing much to take note of with continuing light winds, cold starts but sunny afternoons when and if the fog lifts.

Watch the NW of the country later in the week for some moisture infeeds ahead of the next attempted westerly belt. Hopefully it can do something productive!!!

Great to have some more people joining!! Spread the news far and wide!!!

Thanks Karl, will be interesting to see something major occur in a week's time, would love it to be productive. In the meantime I am loving the misty mornings for autumn photography although the fierce winds overnight on Friday blew a lot of leaves off the trees.

A nice chilly one this morning in the Dandenongs (7C at our place in Ferny Creek) under clear skies. Will get rather mild today for us - perhaps getting close to 15C.

One long week of boring settled weather ahead.

It was a chilly start but no fog really about the eastern suburbs from what I could see. Some about the north this morning and the AP went into fog for a brief moment before it cleared after 9am.

Lovely day today with a weakish sb currently.

Another very cold night coming up with temps closer to 0C right across the outer suburbs and 2-4C closer into Melbourne. Fog about should lift then increasing high cloud.

Some light rain possible in the north tomorrow night continuing into Wednesday but really falls less than 2mm.

Some interest building later on Sunday with possibly a major system developing with a westerly belt to follow. After the last performance I am not so sure

Yes Karl models looking increasingly good for next week...

I think the first cut off may penetrate a bit further East than progged for the weekend, but the second one looks better and in a better position for us, followed by a very decent LWT of sorts.

Latest US really piggy backs the secondary feature well north of the first cut off by Sunday. Seems like it could 'sling shot' more ESE and belt us by Monday/Tuesday next week with a fair amount of weather.

Lots of moisture is likely to feed SW in NE winds from the large rain event on the east coast this week so this could aid the weakening system on Sunday which could possibly trigger a few showers and thunderstorms.

EC throwing up the possiblity of bringing the low and rainband closer towards the SE of the country now rather than forcing it south however it is a long way off and also it depends on what is going on in SE QLD. If that complex can move off quicker then we may see some rainfall later Sunday and larger quantities.

Hi Guys

Sure does look like mild period ahead for Victoria. A block will be setup as the low gets going off SE Queensland and a high puts the hand brake on in the Tasman. This will direct mild offshore winds over Vic. This setup will be aided towards the weekend by the longwave that will be impacting on SW WA freshening up the winds from the NW. Don't look good for rain until maybe some after effects next week.

Nick

Thanks to Blair putting "winter heat into perspective" for Melbourne...

The warmest on record in Melbourne between 22 May and 15 August is 23.1, and between 22 May and 29 July is 22.4. Both could potentially be under threat (although the 26.7 on 21 May 1975 will take some beating as a late May warm event).

Topped out at 12.6C up here today ~1.5C cooler than Dunns Hill 150m higher than us - a local quirk which happens quite often this time of year. Roads were wet this evening which suggests we may have had some fog in the morning, and certainly the RH sat near 100% all day.

I wondered where you had gone To Karl, not many on the other forum could tell me. Great to have you and others on this forum. 7.1c to 15.7c here in Cranny today.5 mm's from that system late late week.Got some more dry mild weather to get through until that system in a about a week. Hope it gives us some decent rain only 8mm's for the month here

15C here today. Just a few 'shreds' of extremely shallow fog this morning, literally just half a metre off the ground, I think there was a bit around the NW suburbs.

Ridiculously mild for the latter stages of May but not exceptionally dry so hopefully evaporation will be suppressed. EC certainly keen on dumping a major rain band over the state late Sunday into next Monday, plenty of moisture advected down from the NE and also a bit in the middle levels from the NW on the weekend. Could be a few errant showers this week affecting the ranges and in the north and west in particular but very small totals likely. 5C atm, hopefully not too much of a struggle with ice on the windscreen tomorrow morning.

Welcome to all the new friends and old friends on here. Good to have you on board.

Certainly looking super mild, if not warm the next few days, but currently we are a far cry from that with clear skies and light winds.

Tomorrow could crack 20C if the fog doesn't eventuate but as the northerly increases late week it will start to get back to early autumn weather.

I couldn't see much fog on the front of the Dandenongs this morning but could have developed in the valleys behind the hills. My sister had no fog out in Monbulk this morning.

Really trying to focus on the rainfall coming up for the weekend. I am loving this weather but desperate for rainfall and not piddly stuff either!!!

Very cold this morning with a minimum of 1C with the fog deck about 2km west of here.

Latest US and EC has better rainfall prospects early next week. Sunday could be rather unsettled too.

From the Dandenongs tourist road there was a nice area of fog around Rowville which must of been pretty close to you Karl. Also a bit of frost around Boronia.

Above the inversion was a balmy 8.4C at our place when I left home (~6:30am) and 11C further up the hill.

Was literally to my west and lowering on top of the taller gum trees as I left. Drove into the pea souper at the intersection of stud and ftg roads.

Warming up now.

I hate these setups or one reason... You put heaps of cloths on when you wake up in morning, and your stripping off by noon! haha.
Some interesting mid level instability here atm as well being shown in the clouds. Wonder if a few showers will pop up today, if so mainly the eastern ranges i'd say. From Seymore across at least.

21 in the city today, mild, could see the temps approach 25 on the weekend depending on cloud cover. Pretty hot in the NW of WA as well, 36-37 where this airmass will come from.

Are they fairly high for this time of year up there Nick or is it just a normal spike as the airstream goes more SE up there??

I think we could see some temps nudging 28-30C in the NW on Sunday.

Down to 5.0c here this morning in Cranny, reached 17.6c this afternoon a fair bit lower than the city, patchy fog this morning pretty thick between Cranbourne and about 3kms from Dandenong where it was clear, Some more patchy fog all the way to Caulfield on the train.

15.2C up here today - very mild for almost winter. More of this late autumn heat to come with nothing really to cool us down before Monday (or even later). Gotta wonder when we might see normal weather again.

DJ

3.7C minimum here but it was 10C at 6am, pretty much knew it was going to be a very mild one after that. 16C here in the end. Felt very warm in the city, I guess 21C feels warm at this time of year. 25C will be just ridiculous. No fire restrictions now which is a worry given fire danger could still be high.

No fog around the Macedon area but heaps of it about the NW suburbs. GFS wants to flood us out by the end of the month but EC keeps us in a mid summer pattern. Still incredibly frustrating.

A balmy 11.0C overnight in Ferny Creek. Today has the potential to be very warm for late May for us.

These warm days look to continue through to at least early next week. Below are the records highs by day for Melbourne from May 20 -> 31. A few of these will probably fall in the next week.

DJ

23.2 26.7 21.9 22.0 21.2 20.7 22.3 20.6 20.6 20.7 21.2 20.9

I think that 26.7 is a chance of being broken this weekend.

US has eroded any useful rain early next week. Sigh.

Loving this weather. Nothing better than going home and the sun is still beaming at you.
Mornings have been cold out at Paky. Not sure on this morning but it was 3c at 7am yesterday morning.
Fog patches again around the Officer area but not Pakenham.

Hi Loo.

It is stunning weather at the moment and the remaining Autumn colour looks sensational on these days but boy we need some rain.

Better fog development tomorrow - could linger right into the afternoon too with light winds and already a good smog outside for the moisture to attatch itself too.