Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Rivergirl on Tue May 26, 2009 8:29 am

Hillybilly, after last night measured 9.3mm in my weather system rain gauge so it's not too far out from yours in the end
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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue May 26, 2009 9:09 am

hillybilly wrote:EC has a significant event next week as does GFS. UK is also onto this event. Of course - could all fizz!

Hi DJ it does? Am I looking at EC wrong mate? All I see is dominance of high pressure South or South East of us right until the end of its run in 10 days time mate unless its the uppers that has some rain?

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue May 26, 2009 9:54 am

You can see the upper feature reflected in a dip in the easterlies, but it is mostly in the mid/upper levels. Have a look at http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Melbourne/advanced_map.html which shows the rainfall from the EC model.

BTW an nice little "wave" low moving up on SW Vic ATM with a band of showers - has quite a nice signature on the Vis satellite image.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue May 26, 2009 1:35 pm

Thanks David. I see what you mean about EC now. Interesting 00z GFS also starting to ramp things up this afternoon for early next week and going for a similar outcome. At least we still have more possibilties of something happening soon.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue May 26, 2009 5:44 pm

Got another brief heavy shower very late last night so final system rainfall total is 16.3mm for here. Looks like a cool few days ahead with some showers around. Might see a few here once the flow goes more southerly Thursday and then SE Friday. The system the models are on to for sometime next week looks fairly similar to what we've just had but better prospects for rain ahead of the next low. Actually looks like some solid and persistant rain periods with the initial mid/upper level feature and then the next low comes in after that with more rain or showers.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue May 26, 2009 7:30 pm

Yeah models have been swapping around a bit for early next week, but they are going to get their buts into gear over the next few runs as we get a fair idean of what will happen! A NW infeed is a certainty now, just hopeing the disturbance can reach here, which I think it will, and cause rain areas for western Vic on Monday, spreading throughout on the Tuesday, locally heavy falls embedded in the areas. But then yes what Andrew mentions, the low to possibly follow. Better prospects as weather patterns finally change.

Well done on that total to mate. You deserve it, now if only it could move more eastwards next time. Wink We had 21mm to 9am this morning. I thought we would get up to 30mm, but still a nice fall.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue May 26, 2009 9:33 pm

I'm still being apprehensive re: next week. Still a long way out but judging by consensus amongst models and thoughts in here, perhaps I'm being too cynical. I'll wait until the weekend. We need a 50mm fall in C VIC from this next system.
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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed May 27, 2009 5:46 am

A few showers are currently pushing up from the south ahead of a very weak front. Winds are still NW across most of Vic ATM but will go increasingly southerly during the day.

A chilly 7C in the Dandenongs this morning with a bit of fog (low stratus) but no rain.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed May 27, 2009 6:04 am

3.9C here with fog about.

Hope these showers develop over the region. 5mm would be nice.
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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed May 27, 2009 11:48 am

Did appear to be frost around Baronia in the paddocks this morning - overlaid by a shallow fog. Hill fog then above in stratus with a base at about 400m.

Some great looking stratus to the south over the bay at the moment. Very black - almost thunderstorm like - though with tops at about 3000 feet Smile . Could be locally 2mm in it from drizzle.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed May 27, 2009 11:55 am

I see Most of the models are now putting the bulk of the rain in Central Australia, NE SA, and NSW for early next week it wouldn't suprise me if we get very little down here in Victoria or miss out completly the story of the last 13 years when these systems develop this way

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed May 27, 2009 12:54 pm

Pretty heavy drizzle here. Still coming down well. May get 4-5mm around the place before 6pm. Looking great in the hills. Almost classic!
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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed May 27, 2009 3:45 pm

Some reasonable totals in central Vic with this showery/drizzle band on the "front". Up to 6mm at Baw Baw, 5mm at Arthurs seat, and 4mm at Dunns Hill). Still a bit more ni it, so could see the odd 10mm total by morning. There is a second front lurking south of Tasmania ATM which should give another showery burst tomorrow - EC has this just south of Cape Otway at 10am. This has quite cold air associated with it, and should give locally heavy showers - particularly through south Gippsland.

Nice to get some more classical winter weather Very Happy

BTW impressive pick by EC on this which had the heaviest falls around central Vic.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed May 27, 2009 5:29 pm

Quite a pronounced shower between 6:30 and 7 which dropped 1.5mm. Thick rain as opposed to the drizzle today. Back to clear skies right now and 7.6C and 3.4mm here now.

I hope EC is right at the end of the run.
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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed May 27, 2009 7:05 pm

Had a bit of drizzly shower activity here, ground is wet but doubt we got anything meaningful. Extended models are fascinating atm, particularly EC. Looks like some active upper levels on the inland side of the high gradually creeping towards us as the blocking 'standoff' continues with no end in sight. EC shows the potential for the rapid development of an easterly dip sometime next week. I know it's clutching at straws but the general setup is working in our favour. The sort of system I am talking about is what EC is showing Thursday and Friday of next week with an upper trough over VIC allowing a low to form which in turn is cradled by the huge stagnant high which is going to slip well south of us as well as slowly east. What you get from that setup is very moist NE airflow with Coral sea origin interacting with cold upper levels and from experience I have seen lows bomb in that setup. We used to get these systems quite regularly but they hardly ever seem to happen anymore. I have seen as much as 120mm over 48hrs at my place from these type of systems although these totals are more common when they occur in the warmer months. 50-100mm would be likely though if the EC scenario came off.

Of course it is way too far out for anything more than interest and speculation at this stage but definitely one to watch. First it looks like a bit of a middle level rain event on Monday, 10mm+ possible inland at this stage.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed May 27, 2009 7:47 pm

The systems keep getting pushed back more and more it becomes less plausible. Really going to have to see a n upgrade early week.

Thick drizzly rain here for last hour. No end that I can see with a large stream setting up over the east. 5.6mm here.
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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu May 28, 2009 5:20 am

3.9mm of drizzle and fog. Just east of the best of it. Perhaps a couple more mm if you score a slow shower today.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu May 28, 2009 6:55 am

Nothing here and don't expect anything.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu May 28, 2009 3:56 pm

Managed to crack 1.7mm from a shower this afternoon

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu May 28, 2009 5:55 pm

2.1mm in the gauge for here, thick drizzly showers this morning and again this evening things were rather wet. Only GFS looks confident of any further activity here tonight although with S/SE airflow there is definitely a chance of drizzle showers increasing overnight.

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Re: Rain/Showers - Victoria: Saturday 23rd - Thursday 28th May 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu May 28, 2009 6:07 pm

Further 2mm of drizzle and fog today. First cold day for May with a max of 9.7C. Still spitting so may be a mm or two more.

Best chance for anything more serious would be seem west and of the Bay, Otways and Gippsland.

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