Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Jun 07, 2009 3:25 pm

Hi Dane,

Certainly skirted to your north this afternoon with most areas between Berwick and Pakenham picking up 2-5mm.

I managed to squeeze around 5mm this afternoon in two bursts. Gutters overflowing at one point briefly. Up to 5.6mm overnight also so not a bad drop. Considering I was only forecasting 5mm for the week it has doubled that already.

A few showers and perhaps period of rain this evening from the SW as winds go more WNW throughout. Tomorrow looks to be quite showery in the afternoon.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Jun 07, 2009 4:49 pm

A cold but otherwise great day down in Sandy Point. Almost no wind and plenty of winter sunshine. Not going to stay fine for much longer though with the an area of rain approaching from the south - expect 20mm+ by morning. The rain band is rotating up towards Melbourne - should get the eastern and particularly southeastern suburbs but the others might struggle (Dane you should be in luck) - this looks like a case of frontogenesis. Current observations suggest there is a little low to the near southeast of Cape Otway.

Another good burst of showers tomorrow with the arvo front.

Further upgrade on the front for Tuesday with 850T down to -4C in the EC and thickness values of ~527gpdm through Melbourne overnight. That's cold enough to see snow flurries to about 500m - shame I'll be in Sydney Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Nick Sykes on Sun Jun 07, 2009 6:28 pm

Hey Guys

Had a nice shower while I was in Mt Waverley today, got a little hail thrown in as well. Next 72 hrs looks quite interesting, coastal locations exposed to the WSW will do very well, your South Gippsland, SW coast type loacations. The Otways will probably act as a rain shadow for most of Melbourne though the models are hinting at a possible window of about 12hrs later Tuesday into Wednesday when the flow may go a bit more southerly and be a bit more productive for Melbourne. Fingers crossed.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 08, 2009 5:22 am

A wild night down here in Sandy Point with frequent heavy showers, a bit of hail and gusty winds. 14mm in the gauge with showers still coming through (I suspect a fair unread owing to overshadowing by trees). Looks very wet along the coastal strip today, and these should push inland with the heating of the sun and the passage of the trough this arvo - the "front" would appear to be just near Mt Gambier ATM with the area of enhanced convection.

Tomorrow into Wednesday looks very cold and wet - classic cold outbreak situation. This has the potential to see snow to near sea level with GASP showing thickness values down to 524gpdm in South Gippsland (values this low will see near sea level snow), about 526gpdm in UK and US. EC is warmer at (about) 528gpdm. A real positive with this event is there are SW 850hPa winds with the coldest air which will mean lots of showers pushing well inland. Shame I'll be in Sydney tomorrow night Crying or Very sad

Dane, sorry to say but Cranny looks to have missed some decent showers by 2-5km.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Jun 08, 2009 9:49 am

Yeah, actually looks promising today. Can't see the sun coming out though, it is very overcast today and some drizzle falling.

If the best case scenario comes off for Tuesday evening into Wednesday then we could have one of the most widespread snow events for the state we have had for a long time. The rainfall seems to coincide with the coldest air for a large part of the state on Tuesday. Pity I'm at work in Melbourne and up and home in the dark. If it does snow I won't be able to see much of it.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 10:06 am

Yeah if only it happened about 36hrs earlier Rolling Eyes

But we have some widespread precipitation about so that is great news. The southern part of the start now in the catch up faze. Up to 63mm at Port Fairy in the last 30 hours with that renewed burst of thundery rain yet to travel through that region so some hefty falls piling up.

Drizzly rainfall here at the moment too which is a good sign with freshening northerlies.

A period of rain is likely this afternoon with the chance of a thunderstorm, mainly in the south. Could get 5-15mm through the Melbourne area, a few showers overnight but things get wild tomorrow and that means better rainfall, hail and snowfalls across the district.

Also a follow up low pressure system could deliver renewed rainfalls to the west and north late week in the order of 10-25mm.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Jun 08, 2009 10:11 am

ONe thing is for sure, its going to get bloody cold...

Well the wind has started only to just pick up to gale force notch now. It rained Saturday night and to 9am we had 1mm, but even better it rained all Sunday (after 9am) and overnight and to 9am this morning we have had 19mm of rain. Another 10mm probably in the gauge since then because the rain has not stopped in ages. We are not even in the heavy band in the SW yet. That will take a few more hours to get here. But fantastic falls for the SW, not lets hope it moves over Melbourne hey? I was their yesterday and looking around things are dire for some spots.

Looks as if that rain band will spread from the southwest this afternoon, affecting the southern parts of the state mostly, with locally heavy falls, and isolated thunderstorms chucked into the mix.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 10:26 am

Great to hear Jake Smile Smile

Some steady showers here currently, and surprisingly the rain drops are rather large suggesting that there is local convection occurring above the low scud producing highland drizzle and fog. You should get some of this David down there to my SE.

Getting darker to the west. Should see things turn cold and wet over the coming hour from the west in Melbourne.

I would not be liking the MCG today for the footy!!!
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 10:31 am

North West battered by weekend storms
Monday June 8, 2009 - 07:05 EST
Heavy rain and hail buffeted parts of north-west Victoria as bands of storms passed through at the weekend.

Hail covered a four-kilometre section of the Calder Highway for more than an hour in the worst of the conditions late Saturday afternoon, but it was also reported in areas west and south of Mildura.

Police say black ice on the Murray Valley Highway appeared to cause two cars to run off the road near Boundary Bend about 6:30pm (AEST) and four people were taken to hospital.

Elsewhere the storms brought heavy rain, with the 22 millimetres at Swan Hill for the weekend forcing the cancellation of yesterday's Swan Hill Cup.

The best falls were at Warracknabeal 23mm, Charlton 18mm, and Mount William 12mm.

Stawell received 13mm, Mildura and Horsham both received 8mm and Kerang received 6mm.

- ABC

© ABC 2009
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 10:55 am

Port Fairy still getting a pounding with another 13mm in the last hour and up to 76mm the last 31hrs.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Jun 08, 2009 11:58 am

82mm at Port.Fairy since 9am yesterday

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:37 pm

Fairly heavy showers moving in now with one just too my north. The convection is extending south from the main cells. Chance of thunderstorms about too.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:51 pm

Got some hail here too David and about 5 minutes of 50mm/hr rainfall. Winds shifting a little more WNW now so that was primarily the convergence band.

2.8mm here so far and still light rain.

Some convection and glaciation over the southwest sky so there is some colder air to come.

Another band of rain to come which should drop 3-8mm through the region.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:11 pm

Got thunder here to my NE. Had nearly 4mm out of that with showers/hail mix. Bigger falls towards the hills of maybe 5-8mm out of it.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:12 pm

Just back from Sandy Point - was only a few showers down there this morning but jet black just off the coast - obviously the stuff going over the Prom. Some of the cells look quite severe with low very turbulent looking bases and lots of hail shafts visible.
Some very big falls along the coast.

Just got the first decent shower for the day up here with 3mm and a bit of hail and fog - like winter's meant to be Laughing . Next band should thicken up nicely with the suns heating before it gets here in 30-60 minutes.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:26 pm

Well I think we may end up with a classic hail storm out in the eastern suburbs. Can see some ripper development to my NW and W sky and dark bases/almost indigo bases on the horizon.

Models have been on the ball in terms of rainfall but have not really picked the amounts that well, over 80mm in Port Fairy, 50mm now at Portland and now 50mm plus at Wilsons Prom last 32hrs.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:52 pm

Awesome sky out there to the near SW in particular, dark as guts and lots of scud lowering, there's going to be mayhem out there this afternoon very volatile atm.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Rivergirl on Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:10 pm

I've just come back from spending the weekend in the city. Yesterday went up to the Eureuka Skydeck where there were some wonderful cloud formations and storm clouds that I photographed. One shot looking out to the Dandenongs showed a rainbow area there with the Arts Centre tower in the foreground. Will put some pics up later. Looking forward to snow if we get it. The sky is looking pretty awesome atm.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:21 pm

Temp plummeted to 4.9C at the end of the shower (which was solid but certainly nothing spectacular). Would have been falling as sleet up the top of the mountain. More to come by the looks of things.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:46 pm

Very intense shower just to my northwest and west so here is hoping for some more hail. Had pea size hail before and strong NW winds. 6.6mm here so far today!
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:49 pm

Just had a couple of small storms pass to our near north with a couple of rubbles in each. Also one vivid flash. Most showers have been dropping hail up here since ~3pm, but only small amounts each time. Could be cold enough with the next heavy shower to drop some sleet about the top of Mt Dandenong (7C here ATM at 400m so would put the top at about 5C) and certainly should be some decent hail with it.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:54 pm

The rain is still persisting here, heavy at times you. We have had several rumbles of thunder but I have not personally seen any lightning just yet. It should be interesting tonight though.

The BoM are late tonight with some of their forecasts. Must be very busy in the skyscraper down at the Docklands. They would have a great view of in-coming showers/storms though from what I remember.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Jun 08, 2009 3:16 pm

Well, I'm a little excited at the prospects for tomorrow night. Best chance of some decent snowfalls at my place for a very long time. Could even wake up to a few cm on the ground Wednesday morning.

Still, don't want to put the mozz on it like I always seem to do when i get excited about things too early. Evil or Very Mad Higher localities in the Dandenongs could be snowed in as that's where the heaviest falls will be, Lake Mountain, Donna Buang etc. could be looking at 20-30cm. What a Face

Only problem is driving conditions will be very treacherous with snow and then frost on top of that in subsequent days. Forget about heading up Mount Macedon, roads will be closed, you won't be able to get up there without chains.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 08, 2009 3:31 pm

Certainly is looking very interesting tomorrow night. LAPS has 850T over Melbourne dropping to (about) -5.5C. EC not quite as cold - 850T of ~-4C - haven't seen the GFS 850Ts but the thickness values suggest a minimum of about -4.5C.

The LAPS scenario is as about as cold as August last year - that saw snow flurries to ~100m around the Dandenongs and settling to 250m - though the more likely snow to about 300-400m. EC and GFS suggest snow flurries to 400-500m. The final levels will depend on the intensity of the showers and their duration - last August's event saw such low snow because of latent and sensible cooling of the air below the rain band as snow fell into it - a pretty unusual set up for Vic.

A very positive thing about tomorrow is the heavy precip and SW flow coinciding with the coldest air - those in 1997 and 2006 fizzed here as the coldest air came through with NW flow.

Of course, the air mass only has to be 1-2C warmer than forecast and the snow just above most of our "heads".

Have joke with the wife that it always snows when I go away (the first two decent snow events we had up here I missed as I was away) - I'm off to Sydney tomorrow so am expecting a big one Rolling Eyes


Last edited by hillybilly on Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:26 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 08, 2009 3:42 pm

Back to the current system - day's total is 6.0mm so far. A chilly max of 9.1C and down to 6.8C currently.

There is an area of stratiform rain moving up over Cape Otway ATM where it has been raining solidly for the last couple of hours. This will rotate up towards Melbourne and should pass through the southeastern and possibly eastern suburbs in an hour or two. Best of it will be towards south Gippsland/Phillip Island but worth watching further north - also worth noting the big falls clocking up at Wilson Prom - up to nearly 100mm for the last 72 hours and more rain to come. The June daily record is just 64mm which could be under threat.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

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