Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 08, 2009 3:31 pm

Certainly is looking very interesting tomorrow night. LAPS has 850T over Melbourne dropping to (about) -5.5C. EC not quite as cold - 850T of ~-4C - haven't seen the GFS 850Ts but the thickness values suggest a minimum of about -4.5C.

The LAPS scenario is as about as cold as August last year - that saw snow flurries to ~100m around the Dandenongs and settling to 250m - though the more likely snow to about 300-400m. EC and GFS suggest snow flurries to 400-500m. The final levels will depend on the intensity of the showers and their duration - last August's event saw such low snow because of latent and sensible cooling of the air below the rain band as snow fell into it - a pretty unusual set up for Vic.

A very positive thing about tomorrow is the heavy precip and SW flow coinciding with the coldest air - those in 1997 and 2006 fizzed here as the coldest air came through with NW flow.

Of course, the air mass only has to be 1-2C warmer than forecast and the snow just above most of our "heads".

Have joke with the wife that it always snows when I go away (the first two decent snow events we had up here I missed as I was away) - I'm off to Sydney tomorrow so am expecting a big one Rolling Eyes


Last edited by hillybilly on Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:26 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 08, 2009 3:42 pm

Back to the current system - day's total is 6.0mm so far. A chilly max of 9.1C and down to 6.8C currently.

There is an area of stratiform rain moving up over Cape Otway ATM where it has been raining solidly for the last couple of hours. This will rotate up towards Melbourne and should pass through the southeastern and possibly eastern suburbs in an hour or two. Best of it will be towards south Gippsland/Phillip Island but worth watching further north - also worth noting the big falls clocking up at Wilson Prom - up to nearly 100mm for the last 72 hours and more rain to come. The June daily record is just 64mm which could be under threat.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 08, 2009 5:10 pm

It looks like we have actually had something weatherwise go our way in central VIC with the strati-form rainfall DJ is talking about developing ahead of the main front coming up the southwest affecting the eastern suburbs giving an extra 2-3mm.

Looks like a wet night, sitting on about 7.6mm for the day and about 15mm for the event.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Rivergirl on Mon Jun 08, 2009 10:25 pm

Here are some pics I took of the cloud formations from the Eureka Skydeck on Sunday

http://www.redbubble.com/people/rivergirl/journal/3219278-the-skydeck-at-eureka-towers-this-weekend

Next up, snow I hope Smile
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 09, 2009 4:53 am

Looking pretty good today for the works weatherwise. Already some rain developing from the west and hail and thunder to the southwest.

Wettest areas will be east central and west gippsland.

I would think 20-50mm out here.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:29 am

Picked up a further 8mm from the "stratiform" rain so 14.0mm for th 24 hours and an event total of 24mm so far. Hoping for the same again in the next 24 hours. 4.5C overnight with a stiff NW wind (enhanced by Katabatics).

Will give my thoughts on today shortly.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:40 am

Progs still holding this system, but 850T differ by ~1C across the models which makes a big difference to snow levels - about 150m.

LAPS appears to be the coldest (down to -5 for near 12 hours which should translate into snow down to around 400m. At 100m the free air temperature drops to ~5C with a dp of ~2C which would again suggests snow to about 400m. EC has 850T of just less than -4C which would put the snow level in the 500-600m range.

Some amazing synoptics for this event - the 900hPa winds are strongly cyclonic at peak at near 40knots over Melbourne near the coldest air. This should set up some very strong showers with hail and thunder. Wouldn't be suprised to see 25-50mm falls in the Dandenongs in the next 24 hours.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:53 am

I would think the corridor between Glen Waverley and Monbulk to be the wet spot for the next 36hrs. Showers tending to rain later today.

Hope your flight is not too bumpy DJ.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:54 am

BTW up to 11.6mm here overnight.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Jun 09, 2009 7:06 am

Had a first hand experience at the footy today of shower intensity...got absolutley soaked!

Amazing shower area developing over melbourne, barely moving and then its got a concave looking feature on its western flank...remarkable.

Looks like it will be a wet day..
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jun 09, 2009 7:33 am

Some decent showers through Melbourne already this morning with big icy drops. Temperatures suggest the snow level is already down below 1000m - probably around 900m.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 09, 2009 8:03 am

Still got some steady rain here. Very useful ahead of heavier rain later. 2mm here.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jun 09, 2009 10:59 am

Latest LAPS is in and has the 850T dropping just below -5C in Melbourne overnight. It also has a local 30mm bulls eye in the rainfall just east of Melbourne for the 24 hours to 10am tomorrow. For a change the showers are intensifying as the move up from the SW so should be a very productive 24 hours ahead.

Shame I'm off to Sydney in 5 hours Sad

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 09, 2009 2:00 pm

Up to 6mm here again today with a nice shower before with a little hail.

Things starting to tilt more SW-NE so showers will increase significantly after 6pm through Melbourne and particularly the east where it will tend to rain at times. Hopefully 20-40mm totals out this way. Would be a worthy result given the current setup.

LAPS looking keen for the weekend too!!!
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Jun 09, 2009 3:03 pm

Today is awesome as. To 9am this morning we have had 25mm of rainfall, and yesterday at 9am we recorded 19mm, so a handy system. I am just amazed considering that it has only stopped once or twice here, otherwise its been continous. Very windy and cold here today, just reaching 11 degrees, and we had several hail showers at school which was cool.

At the moment its very windy with persistent rainfall. An interesting thunderstorm forecast for today as well, mentioning tornadoes, though more likely waterspouts off the coast IMO. Here it is below:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 11:27 am Tuesday, 9 June 2009,
Valid until midnight on Tuesday, 9 June 2009.
Cold airmass thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, mainly along the Central and Gippsland coastal area. There is a chance of local severe wind due either to downbursts or small scale tornadoes, especially right on the coastal fringe, but the risk is considered fairly small thus no "severe thunderstorms likely" area has been denoted.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Jun 09, 2009 4:56 pm

Nowhere near as active today as I was expecting with only a few showers in Melbourne. Haven't checked the gauge yet but apparently we got a few half decent showers. Absolutely zero chance of any further precipitation here overnight and therefore no snow with the dreaded and unwelcome SW winds ruining everything for us. I thought it might have gone a touch more southerly tonight squeezing us into the picture re. showers but I was wrong.

2.8C atm. i know it's supposed to get a few degrees colder tonight but nothing spectacular I must say. I remember in previous years seeing it snow here with -1C at around 10pm. This event pales in comparison.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Guest on Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:11 pm

Had a loud clap of thunder about 15 minutes with a hail shower, 11.5mm since Sunday.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Jun 09, 2009 5:37 pm

Been a very good system for us here, 28mm so far. looks like the snow is beginning in elevated areas, lets hope it sneaks down a bit lower than forecast..
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Jun 09, 2009 6:25 pm

OK, initial frustration over for me. Cool It does look like shower activity may increase here overnight, all be it relatively light compared to the coldies expected on the 'right' side of the bay. With the temp down to 2.4C (It did get down to 2.0C not long ago) we may just get a dusting by tomorrow morning. Still not expecting it though just a risk but at least there is the likelihood of a few showers here now, they seem to be fizzling out and then redeveloping over the ranges locally.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jun 09, 2009 6:50 pm

Now cold enough for snow in the Dandenongs - from experience 2C is the magic number up there for the transition to proper snow and Dunns Hill is now at 2.2C. Interesting to see such a 0.8C fall with the last shower which suggests a lot of frozen precip now reaching the ground. The next shower is now just a few minutes away.

My gut feeling is we are unlikely to see anything significant below the 500-600m level. The air mass is cold but 1-2C warmer than the really big cold outbreaks (such as August last year). On the flip side this event is a classical SW cold outbreak and the coldest air is coming in the middle of the night which should see some very good rainfall totals and lots of small hail - certainly lots of 20mm+ totals. Will be interesting to read the report tomorrow morning.

Shame I'm in a Sydney hotel room Mad

PS a further 5mm today in FC - bit of a fizzer for us. Also, got a report from Olinda on yesterdays thunderstorm - apparently the ground was white with hail to a depth of about 1cm.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 09, 2009 7:10 pm

Nice hail storm here with squally SW winds. Teaming down still. Lovely.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jun 09, 2009 7:20 pm

Dunns Hill down another ~0.7C with that shower to 1.5C and still falling. The lack of precip now being recorded suggests its (nearly) all frozen.

At 1.5C most of the precip will be snow/graupel/snow.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Jun 09, 2009 8:18 pm

1.9C here now and spitting drizzle.

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Nick Sykes on Tue Jun 09, 2009 8:35 pm

Hey Guys

Looks like thermal trough is just coming up the bay with a marked shift in wind direction. Some nice beefy showers associated with it.

Nick

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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jun 10, 2009 4:12 am

Up too 15.6mm here now with further rain falling and coming. Totals still clocking up in C and E districts.

Lots of hail through the night.

Another 5-15mm through the Melbourne area today.
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Re: Victoria: Low for the Queens Birthday Long Weekend 2009

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