Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

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Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jun 10, 2009 6:14 pm

Well another LWT approaching is forecast by most models to develop into a deep slow moving low pressure system over the eastern Bight from Friday onwards. At this stage rainfall is going to be generally light to moderate but any eastward progression towards landfall in VIC could increase falls across the state.

Beyond that the models generally weaken the low pressure system and meander it over the state with areas of light rain and isolated thunderstorms early next week before clearing.

Fingers crossed for follow up falls.

BTW LAPS has the low analysed at 988hPa. cyclops
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jun 11, 2009 4:10 am

Is a very messy set up with a strong low stalling near the SA/Vic border and the cold air rotating over the top. This sees strong upslide slowly weaken and then get replaced with "downslide". At the same time the cold air pool moving across the SE will then set up unstable conditions, and then eventually triggers the development of a new low either through Bass Strait or in the Tasman Sea.

Its pretty clear that the initial weather focus will be in the west and particularly alone the western ranges.

This will be another wait and see system. The south and east will see the best action later in the sequence, with the establishement of SE (GFS) or SW (EC) flow.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:00 pm

EC is looking a bit better with the low getting quite close to Vic before it stalls and slowly fills. The system looks very promising for SA and western Vic, though still not clear for central Vic - perhaps 10-20mm is a reasonable guestimate at this stage. Also shows some promise for thunderies over the weekend - particularly Sunday.

EC is very marginal for snow - indeed it could see rain widely across the alps. Could be a short lived great start to the ski season
Rolling Eyes .

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:39 pm

Yes I am watching Saturday night and Sunday in particular for thunderstorm development about the western parts of the state, leading into the early week, though in my honest opinion I think any T'storm development will have cleared up by then. Things are looking quite unstable for this up-coming weekend again, and as DJ says, another wait-and-see game! The west though is bound to do much better then the central areas at this stage, with the eastern parts picking up good falls from the second formation of a low and a SE/SW flow, depending on what flow swings out. Model consensus is still whacky at the moment, so things could change rapidly, but EC is looking good to me so far. Could actually see some fairly strong northwesterly winds again with this system for the western half of the state. More snowfalls as well which is good.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Jun 12, 2009 10:56 am

Well have to wait and see but geez I wish it could warm up a bit! Not much chance of that with the cloud thickening now. Dunno how we will go out of this but hope we can get some more rain while if is in the area! Laughing

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Jun 12, 2009 5:52 pm

Hey Adon,

It does appear to be a tricky system. I think 5mm for you tomorrow with the areas of light to moderate rainfall. Then as the upper low moves through the NW of the state, the showers should increase with some possible thunderstorms and locally this could be quite productive.

A little frustrating in the south of the state particularly the east.

What is promising a more standard LWT to build in a weeks time and that is something we are not used too, moreso in the past where blocks developed after these lows moved through into the Tasman.

Very cold currently with the northerly winds doing nothing to warm the region.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Walrus on Fri Jun 12, 2009 6:22 pm

Hey guys,

Thanx for the invite to the forum. I dont see alot of input in the forums regarding NE vic. We are very close to the ranges and with these systems that weaken over central vic its not uncommon for anyone south of the freeway to pick up good falls. I`ve got my order in for 15 mm for this system by monday. Expecting some very cold temps following after 3 ripper frosts this week. Early frost and cloud kept daytime temp here below 5 degrees for most of the day.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Sniper on Fri Jun 12, 2009 6:26 pm

A bit of a lottery as too how much will fall arounf your way Wal...
A Flood Watch has been issued for Central SA for tomorrow as the low tracks NE.
If you can get 15mm good luck to you!!

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Jun 12, 2009 6:31 pm

Hey Wal!!

I love the NE of VIC and beleive me there are people who pay attention to your rainfall up there... Man it is a great part of the world at this time of year Smile

Your right Wes, the system is a bit of a luck of the draw. Due to the system being so compact you can see that rainfall will be drawn into the circulation meaning that rainfall will be heavy over a particular region (See SA Flood Watch) and a couple of 100 of km away it is relatively mediocre.

The only way that things will change is if the system progresses further east and stays fairly intense.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Fri Jun 12, 2009 6:59 pm

Hey Wal, welcome mate sounds like you had a freezing day up there seems like that whole region did and even further North into NSW as canberra only had a top temp of 4c today. Good to see you had some rain earlier this week hope theres more to come for you up there as well. Keep us updated Smile

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Jun 12, 2009 7:07 pm

EC has a massive Tasman block up ahead after this system moves through. Crying or Very sad

5.7C here today after a minimum of -0.1C. Today is what happens when you get the last of a very cold airmass clearing away with overnight frosts and immediately replaced by wind and cloud therefore putting a cap on diurnal 'heating' (which is weak in winter to say the least). Starting off from a very low start and therefore ending up low temps.

Models have next to nothing from the next in a long run of disappointing systems. Will it ever end? 1967 all over again.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Jun 12, 2009 7:09 pm

Hmmmm I am not so sure, I think we will have a LWT over us by next weekend at some stage. Really depends if the H pressure systems ridge in over the inland of AUS.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Fri Jun 12, 2009 7:26 pm

Yeah Andrew I thought be 12c today but was lower than I thought only got to 10.8c in the City and even lower in some of the suburbs especially the Northern suburbs was freezing this use to happen regularly when i was younger these set up with cold nights after a Cold air mass replaced by high cloud and North winds real quick which means no time to warm up but hasn't happend so much the past 10 years.

Hopefully we can get few showers next few days then next weekend the next LWT will hopefully pay us a visit.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Jun 12, 2009 7:32 pm

GFS has been sticking it up EC lately, picking the systems first and EC following, so if that trend continues we will get the LWT.

Shocking out there atm, getting very windy and the temp is 4C. Probably cold enough to snow up the top of Mount Macedon and it's usually quite a bit windier up there on the exposed summit so there's a good place to go if you want to die of hypothermia. Wind chill would be well into the negatives here atm.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Jun 12, 2009 9:45 pm

Well not windy here but BLOODY COLD!!!! It's too cold here atm to get much rain IMO, hopefully it can warm up a bit tomorrow. Radar is showing a nice looking shower on it's way should be about 30-40mins away. Hoping to get some more out of this. We have missed out enough over the last few seasons so I will be hoggin every chance I get for a while sorry people! Laughing

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Fri Jun 12, 2009 10:03 pm

Hog as much as you want Adon Wink yeah thats what i thought though its just to cold and dry underneath the airmass at the moment for good or useful rain if we get 5mm out of this I think we have done alright

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Fri Jun 12, 2009 11:41 pm

Gday guys, thanks for inviting me to this site.

Re: this weekends system, the BoM 4 day rainfall progs will not have a bar of it! Initially thought the way it was progging the low NE'wards into Western Vic thought it may have at least been good for a widespread 5-10mm, but anyway we'll see. She's starting to tighten up a bit in the Bight rotation wise and an onslaught of showers are being flung onto the SA coastline (and interestingly a flood watch out for Sunday morning over the Mt Lofty/Central Highland region, must be expecting some good stream showers to establish in the unstable WSW's.

Was quite breezy here today with cloud increasing. Would be great to wake up to see a bit of colour on the radar close to here.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:34 am

A wild night up here in the Dandenongs with high gust winds all night - nothing extreme but numerous gusts in the 30-40knot range. The wind chill has been terrible - like being at Hotham without the snow Shocked Had a brief heavy shower this morning but just a trace so far - will give thoughts on the next few days shortly.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:55 am

Well not looking that great now for Vic IMHO. The models largely in agreement on the low stalling near Adelaide and then slowly filling. Today has weak upslide across Victoria reflected in the patchy rain/showers across the state but this will weaken out for tomorrow. Showers will then focus closer to the upper trough/low centre - hence the warnings for SA where heavy showers are likely to spiral around the low centre.

Can't see much more than 5mm for most of the state - except the far west where perhaps 10mm is possible. Also could be some locally heavier showers - maybe even some thunder - come Monday if the cold pool tracks into NW Vic as suggested by some models.

Is a shame with this system as it only needs to stall 200km further east and the weather outcome for Vic will be very different.

So far the best rainfall seems to be..
CAPE NELSON AWS 5.2
PORTLAND AP AWS 3.0
PORT FAIRY AWS 2.6

The higher subalpine obs include snow melt from the previous few days.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  lightnin on Sat Jun 13, 2009 7:50 am

Hello all!

Only a brief period of rain this morning while i was trying to sleep, measured about 1 mm, doesn't sound like there is much in it for us now. Just can't seem to jag a good rain down here yet, not even any good fronts.. oh well. Listening to the weather bureau last night they were suggesting only about 1 mm for Melbourne for today, then maybe a little more tomorrow. Although this seems to go against what we are saying now.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Malleefarmer on Sat Jun 13, 2009 8:43 am

Trying to rain up here but only short light showers so far. Does look like it will get a bit better but time will tell.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Sat Jun 13, 2009 9:08 am

Gday Matt & lightnin welcome guys cheers Basketball Karl, I and the others are looking forward to your input.

Yeah guys not looking so good this morning be suprised if Melbourne actually gets any registable rain today mabye the odd 0.2mm or something about in one of the suburbs but that will probably be the best result as DJ says bit of a shame really.

You might get few mm's Adon over the next 24-48 hours but that 10mm I mentioned the other day starting to look bit doubtful mate unless you cop a heavy shower or something.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Luken on Sat Jun 13, 2009 11:31 am

Yep looking pretty crap as far as rainfall prospects for most of the state. I always hope that the models would get one of these sort of events wrong and we get widespread falls rather than the very little they are predicting. It seems to go the other way quite regularly, so why can't it they get it wrong occasionally and we get way more than forecast and not less.....

I have been puzzled by this system. Looking at the charts you see a nice deep low sitting just off the W coast, but then all models have it fading to nothing in a very short period of time. Without the benefit of the models, seeing what the synoptic chart says today I would have been tipping a good drink for most of the state. I just don't have the understanding of what causes a system like this to weaken so dramatically so quickly.

Anyway we have had a couple of weeks of good weather, so we are well overdue for a dud.

Cloudy, with occasional sunny breaks here and the wind is picking up.

edit: just had a look at WZ and there isn't even a BW thread for this system, seems this site might have succesfully poached the majority of interested VIC posters.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  Madmel on Sat Jun 13, 2009 11:45 am

True Luken, from my basic knowledge of the charts and I admit I have been pretty darn lazy in learnign about them more I was confused about the system distingrating over a short matter of time. I really thought that we might get at least 5mm over the few days. The lows lately seem to fade away once it hits Central Vic.

Blimey though it has been real cold this week

edit: huh! raining! confused

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

Post  firestorm on Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:08 pm

cool an cloudy today with 2.2mm of rain light northly breeze light showers persisting during the arvo. Smile p.s love the new forums guys cheers

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