South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

The current system has still got a couple of days to go, but worth starting a thread on the system for the coming weekend into next week. EC (which is pretty similar to the other models) has a very deep complex low deepening in the bight (near 50S) and steadily moving east with a series of fronts rotating into the SE. The pressures are progged to get very low - down below 1000hPa on the weekend and possibly in the 980s early next week for Vic, while the central pressure on the low is in the 970/960s. The sequence has the potential to be very wet with mild humid NW flow for a series of days (very bad for snow), though towards the end of the event there is the potential for a major cold outbreak.

Yeah eventually the whole low pressure sequence will move to our south and then east and this will sling the rainfall back onto southern VIC but it has taken far too long IMO between events from early this month.

Given that however, the prognostics does suggest a pretty big event state wide, initially over the northern slopes, then extending across the state and finally focusing heavier showers in southern VIC. I think we have a chance of achieving some useful rainfalls to end off month.

The wind speeds could be quite intense too with storm warnings issued for open waters and high end gales for the bays and elevated/southern VIC.

Fingers crossed that the dribs and drabs in between now and then are somewhat useful!!

Well, the situation was getting completely intolerable here but 6mm odd today has lifted spirits a bit. Month to date rainfall is now almost 46mm so 40mm-45mm between now and next Tuesday would see an average month here. If it comes off that would be great to say the least. I would say it has been absolutely painful waiting for the dribs and drabs to add up this month, literally a few mm here and a few mm there, and most of it drizzly stuff or periods of light rain.

The latest EC looks like a standard June pattern of which we haven't seen anything remotely resembling it so far this month. Maybe it will finally transition us into Winter from this perpetual late Autumn we are in atm.

Am I we sensing a downgrade already due to the huge Tasman cut off low blocking things up??

Yep... big slow down in the system for next week with everything pushed back ~500-1000km - meaning rain on Sun/Mon is largely confined to the west of Vic. Is still a few days off so could still change again. Still looks good through next week (Tues-Thur) and EC follows up with another system late in the sequence.

Also looks very mild for most of the event with some warm air pushing a long way south - 850Ts getting close to 10C in northern Vic

Looking like a severe gale event for the state. US and EC has some very strong winds at most levels. US also has reasonable rainfall with a front most days from Tuesday. EC looking similar with fronts most days but a good one on Thursday.

I just have the feeling guys that these fronts/lows will cause statewide rain, something we have not seen in ages. The first front on Sunday is strong, but seems to slide SE of us, just clipping the west really triggering light rain or showers.

From Tuesday things look better with widespread, locally heavy rain as well.

It should be a nightmarish aviation time from about next Monday too Karl. Strong winds in most levels of the atmosphere... Might make a few sick. But yeah, looks interesting and we have not had a real good wind event either in ages, and the only thing I am worried about for Melbourne is the persistent NW winds that are expected and the effect on rainfall.

Well, GFS going for 10mm here over the weekend in NW flow and then statewide and significant through mid to late next week although once the models start pushing everything back it basically means goodnight for anythign decent. Everything will probably flatten out and the fronts most likely slide south but I'm still confident. Heaps of moisture through the atmosphere and NW winds, the stronger the better.

The rain will only increase once we get that southern ocean parent low closer (within 1000km) to VIC.

Melbourne must be patient in current conditions forecast.

What do people think of the surface low and trough, and upper trough over most of NSW and parts of Victoria tomorrow?

Looks like it should produce some rain for most areas, probably later in the day. The forecast here is for 5-10mm.

Guess the current NSW/SA low sits best here. Not a lot in this overall - and the best looks to be in SA/NSW as most of Vic sits under a very narrow ridge of high pressure. Hoping to sneak a shower in Melbourne but not anticipating much.

Power Storm wrote:I just have the feeling guys that these fronts/lows will cause statewide rain, something we have not seen in ages.

Well GFS has downgraded a little bit, so maybe this will not be the break that changes patterns and set's up in a more winter profile. But then again, it's still a while out so anything could happen. I still have hope...

For today, yep don't expect much in Victoria, apart from a few isolated afternoon/evening showers about the ranges, north and northeast mostly - and patchy rain shifting in to the northwest for a few periods. The system as mentioned above should mostly affect NSW and SA. Then the front approaching the low should only clip western Vic as it slides southeast and only bringing some showers. Better times hopefully from Tuesday.

Jake.

Looks like a decent shower heading for us from the north now. Just gone through Ouyen but I reckon it will be very weak by the time it gets here in an hour or so. Models are still doing there usual with promising a long way out and downgrading as they get closer. Think though that the LWT coming will help us a little.

Well still looking very windy in the outlook with widespread gales through the early part of late part of the week with fronts lining up from the west around a strong southern ocean low.

How much rainfall we get is determined on what happens in the Tasman sea with that very intense low pressure over the North Island of NZ over the weekend. That will be causing some issues there and should be watched.

Well had a few hours of light, steady rain and have had about 3mm of rain. Better than expected and hopeing for a little more.

Please to hear about the rain in the NW - Mallee Farmer. As anticipated, rain clung to the far north and northeast.

Here in the south, yet another mild, almost calm winters day. The odd cloud looked slightly threatening, but nothing to report.

Quick scan of the outlook for next week - looks like the main feature the Sunday/Monday will be the wind - though western Vic looks OK for some reasonable rain. Models suggest typically less than 5mm elsewhere. First significant rain then spreads across the state Tues into Wed (though looks like south-central areas and Gippsland may struggle with rain-shadows). The south then gets its share later in the week with a slow to clear W/SW set-up.

GFS and EC both suggest widespread 25-50mm fall for the next week so shows lots of promise (though of course could all wind back ).

Yes David agree with that not much rain for the Melbourne area again but plenty of wind, couple of the models are suggesting a bit of a cold outbreak Friday into Saturday next week which could finally see some better rain in the Melbourne area and snow down below 1000m, maybe a bit lower. If it comes off that is.

Looks like we could get another shower at some stage today. Cloud is building again and moving in from the east so a gllomy day up here but very nice with essentially calm day.

Well things are looking more and more positive for these next fronts expected to come through, particularly from Tuesday. Lots of rain, and models seem to have 'upgraded' a little IMO. Better falls will be over the southwest and near the coast again, and the first front slides southeast only bringing isolated showers to western parts of Victoria, scattered over the southwest at times. Locally 5-8mm, mostly southwest, and a few thunderstorms could be chucked into the mix their tomorrow afternoon, a little unstable so there is a chance.

We have had 12mm tonight.The month so far has been very good 15 rain days some only 1-2 mm 73.5mm in total [ave is 80mm] three days to get average.No frosts this week and we have feed we are able to back off feeding so much.Just feel so lucky.
PS.Thanks Johnno for invite . Will be great to see Karls forcasts again.

Pretty quiet in here today, not much commentary going on. Probably a bit of fence sitting I reckon as we have been let down so many times before, feel I need to wait until the day before a major system until I can feel all that confident about it.

Models indicating some light rain or drizzle about tomorrow with a weakening cold front diving south and clipping the state, mainly on the NE ranges and western VIC but I'd expect a bit about on the central ranges as well late in the day. Can't see much around Melbourne suburbs.

Monday looks similar with more drizzle but it looks to be confined to on and north of the ranges in the moist northerly flow. Winds strenghtening as the LWT approaches. After that the Tasman low nicks off and the LWT starts to move over us. Becoming unstable and continuing very windy with rain extending over the state during the day, on the ranges should see the highest falls and of course the far SW corner. Up until then it should be cool to mild and rather humid.

Wednesday should see a few showers persist in a NW flow more widespread over the ranges and SW and still very windy. Thursday another front passes through and winds swing around to the SW, more showers tending to rain about the ranges and starting to become colder.
Friday looks like being quite cold and showery with the bulk of the showers affecting the usual wet spots in SW flow, i.e coastal, Dandenongs, Yarra Ranges, South Gippsland. Saturday however the wind tends more southerly and the showers should become more frequent and widespread through central VIC. Friday and Saturday both should see some local hail and thunder and snow could get down quite low potentially.

That summary is mostly from GFS. EC looking similar but somewhat better IMO. Either way it should be fairly wet over the course of the week, should
being the important term there. So many times we lock in good rainfall for the state and it flops for us. Surely though this time, with a major LWT taking several days to pass through most of the state should get something decent. Surely!!

Another 8mm for us overnight. We have reached our June average.

Good to hear Alexia!!!

Models starting ramp the event up, especially around Thursday. Like Andrew mentioned, we should see some reasonable totals.

Yes - does look good this week - certainly most models suggesting lots of 25-50mm falls. GFS is getting rather (perhaps too) excited about Thursday with some place getting close to 100mm or more for the week

Not much today for most of us - the airmass is likely to become rather dry in the low levels which will see most rain disappear as virga. Also potential to get rather mild today - certainly wouldn't rule out the odd 20C west of Melbourne.

(great to hear about continuing rain in the north - here in central Vic it's been another shocker rainfall wise with just ~50% of average. That will make May-June 2009 the driest on record for us ).

Boy, I hope BOM solve their radar issues before this event arrives. Murphys' Law suggests the radar will be down and we wont be able to marvel at this event.

Maybe we need to employ Karl to design his own radar site