Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  SC on Sat Jun 20, 2009 5:27 pm

Just had short shower here. Radar looks to be thicken up quite nicely from the north.
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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Blackie on Sat Jun 20, 2009 6:43 pm

yes hilly actually quite showery in Mansfield today with 5mm here so far and still raining, and near 16mm at Mt Buller. Rain has been light to moderate and increasing the last 2 hours. Might crack 10mm by morning if we're lucky.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Blackie on Sat Jun 20, 2009 8:04 pm

just clicked over 10mm and moderate rain still falling. Quite surprised at this. Mt Buller now past 20mm.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Jun 20, 2009 8:42 pm

Hi B,

There seems to be a fair bit more too come with rainfall continuing to build well north of the Murray east of Echuca.

Otherwise it is fairly dry west of that line from Echuca to Cowes.

Could see some 30-40mm totals out of this to 9am along the divide and higher peaks.

Goodbye snowy conditions Sad
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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:49 am

4mm down here last night in showers. Looks like Buller has done the best so far with 28mm (of rain), while Melbourne and central areas have missed out again. Snow conditions must be getting pretty crappy.

Best of it today looks to be clearing east, so only the odd shower about IMO - though these will become more widespread in the afternoon.

Have to wait until Monday (and mainly Tuesday/Wednesday) for something more widespread.

All models (except the always fickle GFS) show the unstable pattern continuing all week with a second low for next weekend Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Mantis on Sun Jun 21, 2009 9:00 am

1mm here at Horsham last night.
Bright sunshine now and I have just finished rounduping the weeds.
Looking forward to Tuesday now and off to the shed to brew an Aussie pale ale Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  NoRelationToNed on Sun Jun 21, 2009 12:01 pm

We are on the edge of the activity here in Kerang, clear skies to the west and greyness to the NE. Tried to spit a couple of times. 13.4° with a DP of 10°.
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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jun 21, 2009 1:21 pm

Back...

Well not that much suprise that thunderstorms are developing in the NE of the state currently. The atmosphere is quite unstable today with the trough in the area and good moisture rates as well. Ranges are kicking it off too. I don't think though that the lightning activity will push much further south. Expect some heavy falls out of storms if you get under one too, slight potential for a flash flood around and small risk for large hail.

Well I have been away for two days, and I expected the models to be all on the game now, but they are still quite fiddly for next week. The most likely situation is for the cut-off to slowly move south of South Australia then into or just south of Victoria with patchy rain areas developing in the west Monday night. It should be unstable too and GFS is giving out some alright CAPE and LI values ranging from about -3 to -1 across some parts of the state including western, southern and northern parts. And further out, another disturbance of some sort looks to protrude into Victoria from the W, so interesting times ahead. It's a Winter of lows and troughs and hardly any cold fronts.... strange Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Hinezy on Sun Jun 21, 2009 2:29 pm

That's quite a nice line of storms up around Yarrawonga at the moment. Seems like they're building further south and also moving south too! The latest sounding from the BOM for Melbourne shows some good instability in the lower levels (up to about 600hpa) of the atmosphere along with plenty of moisture which is probably well represented by the current storms in the north of the state.

Looking forward to a good few days ahead hopefully!

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Rhino on Sun Jun 21, 2009 2:41 pm

Light rain for last couple of hours but hardly enough to wet the ground. Will be an interesting week ahead with rainfall of some sorts around on all days. Nice to see lightning on the tracker again but would be better if it was in the west of the state. Hope it's not just annoying rain, although have a feeling it will be, but any rains good rain I guess.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Pengaz on Sun Jun 21, 2009 2:45 pm

Im back in Sale for the first time in 2 months, came down with some form of flu yesterday so came home for some good tucker and hopefully a 'non-swine' related illness.

Was a mainly sunny drive back with high cloud in most parts of Gippsland, bit of water lying around as well which is always encouraging. There is a bank of cloud off the coast of East Gippsland which is just scraping the S NSW coast, could see the mass of white high cloud tops associated with it in the far distance on the way home. Things have greened up here since i was last home with a couple of useful falls in the past few weeks. We had 0.5mm during the night apparently.

Ive given up on predicting the weather lately as the models have been so volatile and the patterns are so out of character for winter. One thing i will say is that I like the N-S orientation of these setups lasting throughout the week. Always guarantees useful rain will fall somewhere, as is the case this arvo. NSW will be drenched come weeks end.

Just read that Dorrigo in NSW has already surpassed its average annual rainfall by more than 1000mm, and needs only ~300mm more to record its wettest year in the past 100 years. Just unreal-build 'em a bloody mega dam so we can share there water as well!
Heres a link for monthly observations (namely the May rainfall) at Dorrigo:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/200905/html/IDCJDW2040.200905.shtml

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Jun 21, 2009 3:36 pm

Has spat up here in Ferny Creek most of the arvo but never really wet the ground. 0.5mm overnight and 0.1mm (if I squint) today.

Has been exceptionally mild and humid for us - 14C here today and dp up to 12C.... no wonder its rain, rain and more rain on the snowfields (which will be green by the end of the week at this rate Shocked

Radar looks fantastic ATM for the NE and perhaps even east central areas - the EC is the only model to pick this area of thundery rain (from what I can tell) and brings it down into Melbourne just after 7pm so you never know...

A very messy sequence this week - with the low to our west slowly edging in. Current track puts it into western Vic on wednesday. Best rain will be in the NE.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jun 21, 2009 3:45 pm

And once again we miss out here. Our rainfall this year will be lucky to exceed 500mm. At this rate all the gardens, forests, everything will be gone next year, that is if it is not all burned to the ground. Pretty much had enough, officially. Couldn't care less about the NE ranges.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jun 21, 2009 3:54 pm

Very interesting here. Was sunny all day, then about 2 hours ago some cloud started to build to our NE and now it is a congestus cumulus cloud. It's amazing, and has a very very dark cloud base. It is also raining here now which is quite a suprise too. As expected the lightning activity is easing off within the rainband in the NE.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  lightnin on Sun Jun 21, 2009 3:54 pm

[quote="droughtbreaker"]And once again we miss out here. Our rainfall this year will be lucky to exceed 500mm. quote]

Ok I dare say you'll get your share at some stage... we've only had 94 mm here for the year and i'm just hoping to get 300 if we are lucky...

Would be great to be under those storms, looks like we may catch a spot or two soon.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Walrus on Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:36 pm

Hi guys,
sorry to say but 5mm here overnight and 21mm since 2pm today. Been some heavy isolated falls going by the radar this arvo.Looks like this system is through so looking forward to tomorrow evening for the next band.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  SC on Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:53 pm

Light rain here, possibly 0.5mm in the last half hour.
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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sun Jun 21, 2009 7:08 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:And once again we miss out here. Our rainfall this year will be lucky to exceed 500mm. At this rate all the gardens, forests, everything will be gone next year, that is if it is not all burned to the ground. Pretty much had enough, officially. Couldn't care less about the NE ranges.

You crack me up Andrew...not because of what you say but how you say it. It does get a bit much constantly missing out..but im of the opinion that SE QLD got down to 15% before the wheel turned in a big way. I know we dont get the monsoonal stuff they are capable of but it has to turn sooner or later if history is any guide...still waiting but it will come, mark my words.
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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  DC449 on Sun Jun 21, 2009 8:25 pm

Light drizzle
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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 22, 2009 6:30 am

1.1mm overnight. Seemed to rain most of the night - but maybe I was just dreaming Laughing

Can't see much today for most of us - just the odd shower around - then better tomorrow (notice LAPS has LI down to -2 through central areas tomorrow with DPs of ~11C so could see a few storms about).

The messy (lacking focus) unsettled sequence continues through into next week.

PS Walrus - where is your place (I'm guessing Rutherglen) - BTW it's great to see your your good rainfall.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Jun 22, 2009 9:50 am

Andrew I am like Anthony and think the exact same re: our weather. The tables will turn, there is no doubt about it.

Anyway, today there is likely to be scattered showers develop in the far southwest this afternoon and continue this evening. I wouldn't also rule out the chance for isolated thunderstorms to pop up along the southwest coast later today either, but the majority of thunderstorms should stay over the ocean and it is quite active off the SA coast ATM. Tomorrow is also looking like there will be a possible band of thunderstorms develop over the state, probably stretching from the SW of the state to the NE, and GFS has Li values down to -3 and -4 over western and central, northeastern areas.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:24 am

Spring like out there ATM with warm sunshine and fair weather Cu. Only rain currently showing is in the far west of the state.

(PS Jake I'm more inclinded to Andrew's view of this drought - it's 13 years long now and not getting better - if anything it's getting worse. Prior to the 1980s Melbourne had never had more than 4 years of below average rainfall in a row and we are at 3 times that number. We have had drought before but this one is different. I'll be wrapped if I'm proved wrong - let's move this discussion to http://planetweather.forumotion.net/climatology-f4/ )

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:51 pm

If we all agreed mate there would be nothing to talk about, thanks for suggesting it to move to that thread mate. Wink

Scattered showers developing over the west now, the southwest in particular, locally heavy as well and should continue into tonight with isolated thunderstorms still possible. I think some of that shower activity will reach me.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 22, 2009 5:14 pm

Quite a bit of lightning in the west of the state ATM into SA but not much rain falling - best is just 1.8mm at Dartmoor.

This system is shaping up as another fizzer - low is taking just too long to get here Sad We need to move Vic 500km south and 500km west. Soon will start looking to the weekend's system (which also peaks to our west). I have never seen such a progression of cut-off lows do so little.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Jun 22, 2009 6:07 pm

There is a few heavy falls underneath those thunderstorms in the SW ATM which I expected to develop. In-fact I can see that lightning all the way here, both over the ocean and near border, and I am an hours drive east of Warrnambool! It is very distant, but soooooo good to see lightning.

Tomorrow is shaping up to be an interesting day IMO with thunderstorm activity - most of the cloud and light rain should contract east by the early afternoon from western districts allowing some clearence and hopefully action. Central parts as well and ranges.

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Re: Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

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