Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

That low in the bight looks impressive on sat but it's slow moving, at least the other one forming of the WA coast is dragging in moisture from the far NW. I know it will drift south but it's going to be a beast if it keeps it momentum up.

Quite an attractive sat picture currently.

If only it was going to translate in widespread rainfall. I think you will find that the low pressure will dissolve over us and then develop over the Tasman Sea later in the sequence. NZ will be obliterated with weather in the near future.

I think there will be some pockets of 20-30mm tomorrow but I feel they will be few and far between. I hope Melbourne and C VIC get some decent falls. I beleive looking at the current sat pic that we stand a fair chance for thunderstorms.

Late week well that is a whole other issue and I think we will see that drift mainly through NSW.

Too true with the Satpic Karl. Systems pumping out plenty of moisture up north (again) and the west (at last!!).
GFS holding some reasonable LI's over mainly western and central areas tomorrow and into Wednesday. I wonder if the boys from BOM will dust off the TS Forecast charts for this.

My expectations for tomorrow are low, lets hope we are writing about something exciting this tim tomorrow night.

Heya Wes.

It is looking so promising but things are just so slow moving. Alas we will get lucky eventually.

Too get an idea of what the Melbourne radar will be looking like tomorrow we may need to use the 512km radar. Just a heads up.

Some scattered showers on the western ranges.

Yeah Karl, the 512km composite certainly looks promising.

Good to see some falls registering out west. Casterton, Dartmoor, Portland and Edenhope all receiving in excess of 4mm so far.

Yeah and I dare say some regions have had local falls of 10-15mm over the course of this afternoon. That focus should increase with diurnal heating tomorrow.

Unusually mild and humid for "winter" today with dp's into the low teens and afternoon temperatures getting closer to 20C. Should get very unstable this afternoon with LI in the range of -2 to -4 through west/central areas. EC (which has been pretty good so far) has a narrow band of precip associated with this instability moving west to east. This sits over Melbourne late afternoon/early evening. LAPS which is similar has upto 20mm on the band... let's hope its right.

The weekend into next weeks is also starting to look better (but that's for another thread).

Looking at the signs in the sky, it looks on for storms today. AccAs looks as good as a summers day and timing is in our favour for the pressure trough.

We need temps of 20C for moderate rainfall totals of 10-20mm but the slow moving feature could also mean that convective field could sit over a region for a while.

Will have to keep an eye on things. C ranges look to be firing first around your region Rhino.

Here's hoping Karl. Looks the goods at the moment with a very unstable looking sky and the odd heavy raindrop. Geez, if it was going to be 30C it would be crazy today. Hoping for 10mm for the coming week, 25mm would be nice, but need good follow up rain here to get creeks flowing again after some useful rainfall over past month.

Rhino.

The sky does look good, I know it's the middle of winter but with a bit of luck, and more sunshine maybe, things will kick off with a bang later this arvo/evening. It's been a long time but winter thunderstorms from the north do happen, even though it's rare. I've seen a few crackers over the years, the last one was about 8 years ago and flooded our kitchen.

We can only hope it all aligns. Seems like we will all hear thunder this afternoon. I think some of the cells will contain hail too so could be some interesting developments about this afternoon - and may continue after dark.

some good cloud around, but have a gut feeling that a band will form north of here, with some extra lift over the n rangers could see some isolated severe cells forming. Wang, probably Seymour (because they are always in the right spot;). Would love to be sitting right on the northern border sipping some tea and fruit cake just waiting for the inevitable. But work must come first today.

BTW, hello to everyone, first post on here, thanks for the invite;)

Hi Greg,

Welcome to the board - hope you like it.

There will be some severe pulse cells about and I reckon they will be in C VIC today. Just have that feeling. But northern areas will see the best action. Your right about those locations.

Just need mr sun out!!

hey Karl,

Well for some meaningful discussion and talk of tea and fruit cake, i have found the perfect forum;)

Is anyone out and about today? My only hope will be at the local highpoint look out, may be able to sneak out for a looksee later this avo.

Interesting to note that some locations are starting to register double digit dps.

HaHa!! I'm glad your here by the way.

I may get out this afternoon. But will remain local judging by the sky. The activity will be best by the looks of things on the back of the precip near the dry line so it could
be the outer western suburbs and Geelong mid afternoon translating east.

Need to christen the site with a chase report.

have some virga to my west, starting to thicken up in the mid levels.

Had some large drops here.

The sounding they posted on the internal web here at Broadmeadows shows LI's of -5.4 for Melbourne today! There's a big dry bulge between about 950-800hpa tho' which probably explains the virga. A good looking sounding for some high based storms tho'! Plenty of moisture between 800 and 500 too! Never really seen a sounding like this so it will be interesting to see what eventuates!

Edit : Actually the new sounding is out on the BOM site now too.. -5.6 LI's but you can see the dry air / inversion near the surface. Weird that they used a plot of 21/8 tho'..

you could witness your first "typical" high based southern thundery Cameron;) If anything fires have you camera handy after dark, you'll get the best lightning shots of your life. I'm due to drop off a family member at 6:30 this evening at the ap, fingers crossed i'll have a bit of a view if anything is local.

Well EC/LAPS have activity developing through the region post 5pm so that is great for those mid to high based cells. Could be some low based cells again mainly on the troughline/dryline region overnight.

Sky is starting to get really unstable.

I hope you finally get something Cam Welcome to Melbourne where the weather is weirder and weirder every year

It deff. looks more promising for development today (not like yesterday lol)
Yeah Hinezy is bouncing here, well getting ambitious about today. It does help to have someone to share the excitement bug with

Well it is extremley unstable here at the moment. I am loving it, I have never seen a thunderstorm outbreak in Winter before, it reminds me so much of Summer outbreaks! Here is hopeing everything comes together. Latest soundings look superb with LI ranging from -6 to -1 across most western and central locations (including here). I don't think any of the actual persistent storm activity will start to develop until after 1PM and continue through the night. As mentioned above I also think some locally damging winds could be involved in the storms and also large hailstones. I will report shortly.

looking stormy outside atm here aswell been light rain all morning with equating to nothing as yet i will be watching the sky this arvo hoping for some action

You guys out in the west have the trough close by. Keep us posted - another hour or two and it should start. Can see convection to the nw.

can't see too much from here, having said that a cell seems to be developing near colac.