Seasonal forecasts

Well thought I would start up this thread in here as most of us farmers are starting to look ahead to what potential yield the crops they have sown. ATM we have excellent soil moisture out here and I am sure the mallee is not alone there. I am not one to base decisions entirely on forecasts and futures markets but they are handy to look toward to get an idea on how you will stand when it comes to how much you have to selland what it's worth.

Basically we have a less that ideal season forecast with Jamstec seemingly doig a backflip in the last few days and now going for weak +IOD and strong Elnino conditions coming into late winter spring. This I am sure will result in some pretty dry conditions yet again in crop growing regions and lower than average yields for Australian growers.

I will not link anything to this as I cannot be bothered right now and I also intend for all seasonal forecasts for Pacific and Indian oceans being put into here as to get all the info into one thread to make it easier to post into and also easier to read all available info.

Thoughts anybody?

I am not so sure whether we need to be totally concerned about El Nino here - I am finding that El Nino impacts areas mainly north of the border through NSW and QLD (going by the last one and then La Nina which belted QLD/NSW).

I think the focus should rest with the IOD, and whether that is + or -. Is that a fair statement?

I do recall past El Nino events or weak ones at that providing us with better rainfall and storm seasons.

I was about to say as well Karl, I noticed, was it the 2005 El Nino? Well one of the last ones we had, there were heaps of thunderstorms during the Spring/Summer and Autumn here. Heaps of them, I loved it, though I found they were a lot dry at times, but then again there were plenty of wet ones too.

Well a reasonable start to winter with a system 5-7 days from now likely to push many inland parts over the June Average in terms of rainfall. A good start to the sowing season.

Well crops are looking fantastic at home but I am in Horsham atm and they are way behind down here. I would say that most of the crops are up and away at home and down here there are still seeders moving around. Hopefully they can finish quick and we can get this rain nest week.

Still waiting for a good soaking rain down this way, and a lot of worried farmers around. Forecasts for drier conditions for the growing season aren't really helping, can't really cope with 4 years in a row of 100 - 150 mm GSR rainfall.
Crops are up and going ok in some areas but in drier areas north of Geelong those still sowing are contemplating stopping again! Any chance we won't get an elnino and +ve IOD?

important to remember that seasonal forcasts are based on averages - 70% chance of below average rain also means 30% chance of above average. And as Aust rarely gets its average anywhere lets not lose all hope of reasonable spring rains just yet. I lived in Qld for many years and elnino years were not always bad. In our country of extremes weather events can surface anywhere anytime, and often when least expected. Im wondering what impact on our rainfall the rapidly warming ocean temps off our south coast will have. Any ideas?

Wal

Well seasonal forecast and the language that comes with them are all over the shop atm. Latest I heard yesterday was the mallee was sitting on 50/50 for average rainfall yet at the same time we are told and elnino will form and this means lower rainfall. Then I read that bom now reckons +IOD are caused by Elnino which I think is crap.

I am happy with the 50/50 forecast, not too bothered about the Elnino forecast and downright sceptical of the +IOD link to Elnino. I think I will just continue to listen to Max's spring reports and SSTs in the Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean. They are not bad at telling the story.

Yeah Anthony (thanks mate ), it is all over the ball lately, noone really knows whats going to happen/develop just yet. Things are too confusing, next few months will reveal, but IMHO rainfall in Vic is not effected by the El Nino too much, but can be, its mostly NSW and QLD IMO.

Ha ha Jake yeah it's me but my real name is Anthony. adon is just a net name!

Hot and dry for November and December with the odd minor to moderate rainfall event.

Average to good rain and storms in January and February.

Mixed bag for Autumn. Dry March. Average rainfall April and May.

Well it will want come hammer down after xmas john, yet another crop that will not pay the bills. Partly due to shockingly bad prices and crap yield and quality. Although my father whiped my arse again this year. He doubled my yield and had better quality. And he did it my way! I sort of had to do it "old school" because of ground conditions but next year(if I actually do it) it will be different