Lake Eildon

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:54 am

A very good week at Eildon sees the lake come up to 21.52%, a rise of 1.61%. This is a good result from several perspectives - it is the largest rise in a week since July 2007 for a start! It also takes the lake above 20% for the first time since January, it also takes us above the 30 metre line and above the 100 foot line (30.48 metres). It also represents an above average rise - 120.7% of the usual rise in fact, which is the biggest rise in percentage terms this year. A GREAT RESULT!

Despite all that, though, it is still the record low level for the 6th week in a row - but much closer to that coming to an end.

Indicies are good. The lake rose to 30.30% of ATA, up by 1.73%, and 83.24% of L5A, up 3.15%. It caught up dramatically on last year's result so it is only 0.18% lower (up 0.92%). It also rose 2.01% on 2006 levels to be only 1.10% lower. But it was down 0.25% on 1983 levels to be 18.73% lower and dropped 0.95% on 2003 levels to be 7.58% lower.

The physical lake level, as mentioned above, broke through some barriers this week... it is currently 29.74 metres below full, up by 111 cm in the week - or about 16 cm (6 inches) per day!

Now here is a curious one - if the lake rises by 0.9% in the next week, we will face a remarkable coincidence that for four years in a row the lake will be at about the same level for 4 years in a row. The 2009 level would be 22.42%, 2008 it was 22.45%, in 2007 it was 22.43% and in 2006 it was 22.46%. Extraordinary run of stats! Of course, this means if the lake rises by 0.90% it is still at record low levels, but if it rises by just 0.05% more than that, then it will jump up to the 4th lowest! And of course - if it can keep raining, we will keep going up and make it past 25%, which none of those previous years did

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:34 am

Current inflow is 8900mg which is double same time last year.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Sep 10, 2009 1:06 pm

Eildon has started spring well with a couple of good rises - up a further 1.31% this week to be 22.83% of capacity. This is 103.1% of the average rise for this time of year, and more significantly takes the lake level higher than at the same time of the last three years - therefore 52nd highest in the 55 years of the lake's history. After 6 weeks of record lows, it is nice to be "off the bottom", so to speak.

The indicies are also positive, except for the remarkable comparison with 1983 levels when the lake was going mental at this time of year. It is 31.58% of ATA, up by 1.28%, it is 86.00% of L5A, which is up 2.76%. It gained 0.56% on last year's level to go from negative to positive - up by 0.38%. It also gained 1.47% on 2006 levels to be 0.37% ahead. But it lost a further 3.23% on 1983 levels to be 21.96% lower, and 0.12% lower than 2003 levels to be 7.70% lower.

The physical lake level is up by 86 cm in the week to be 28.88 metres below full.

A good and pleasing outcome. The key to Spring is how long the lake keeps rising! If it is still going up in November, then we will end up with a pretty good maxiumum (considering), but if it starts to drop again in a couple of weeks, then we will yet again fail to make 1/4 of capacity. Even if the rises get smaller, if it keep going up in the weeks ahead, then we will be doing ok.

Here's hoping and praying for more rain yet!

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Sep 17, 2009 2:29 pm

Another reasonable week for Lake Eildon sees its level rise to 23.65%, up 0.83% on last week's figures. This rise is approximately 2/3 of the average rise for this time of year (67.2% to be exact) - but compares well with most recent years.

The indicies are mostly good as a consequence. The ATA is 32.18%, up by 0.60%, so we are getting close to 1/3 of average capacity. The L5A is up 1.44% to 87.44%. Against other years you see a mixed story - it is now 25.47% below the 1983 levels, down 3.51% in the week. It is also down 9.75% on 2003 levels, a loss of a further 1.75%. But our lake gained another 0.25% on last year's level to be 0.63% higher, and gained a remarkable 1.65% on 2006 levels to be 2.02% higher.

The physical lake level came up 52 cm to be 28.36 metres below full.

The level this week also passes the 2002 level, so now four recent years (2002, 2006, 2007 and 2008) were at lower levels than the lake currently is. To give that historical perspective, that means the current level is 51st highest in the 55 year history of the lake.

For the ultimate trivia buffs among you, week 38 is significant in Eildon history because in 1993 it saw the lake record its highest EVER result. On 19th September 1993, the records indicate Eildon held 102.53% of its capacity - being around 60 cm overfilled! Presumably the runoff was so significant that the spillway simply could not dispose of the water fast enough. If only we knew what we had then!

Let's hope and pray that there is more rain, and more positive results to come!

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:12 pm

Great returns there Wes, thanks for posting, makes me happy to know that the rainfall is making a difference. Still got the next run of weather to get through and the inflows from the rains yesterday.
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:33 pm

No probs Karl. Checking EC for Bonnie Doon, Eildon and Mansfield for next week. Some massive falls possible. I have a real good feeling about this system!!!

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Sep 20, 2009 5:29 pm

Yeah this could send the lake flying up and perhaps some localised water under the bridge!!!! Would be a sight for sore eyes I can imagine!!!
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Sep 24, 2009 7:55 am

Another reasonable rise, but we're back to not doing anything spectacular... Eildon rose by 0.68% for the week to be 24.33% of capacity. This is 61.1% of an average rise for this time of year, although we are now entering the period where rises often quickly diminish (let's hope not for this year!).

This is the 51st highest level in the lake's 55 year history. The level now is higher than the maximum last year, so this is the highest the lake has been since December 2007. If it can gain another 0.55%, then it will be the highest the lake has been since March 2006!

Indicies are ok mostly - the lake is up 0.43% on the ATA to be 32.61%, and 1.35% up on L5A to be 88.79%. It gained another 0.28% on last year's level to be 0.91% higher, and gained a remarkable 1.60% on 2006 levels to be 3.62% higher. But it lost ground on 1983 levels - down another 1.49% to be 26.96% lower, and lost a whopping 2.22% on 2003 levels to be 11.67% lower (2003 was a WET spring).

The physical lake level was up by 42 cm to be 27.94 metres below full.

The big question now is how long will the lake keep rising? Ten years ago, the usual time for the lake to start falling again was in early October, but spring rain in recent years and the overall lower lake levels has gradually changed that date around and now on average it rises for another five weeks yet. On average, these remaining five weeks ought to see the lake come up another 3%, but the last couple of weeks have shown below average rises. Mathematically at the moment you would say Eildon will rise another 1.8% to just over 26% of capacity. But this time of year, the maths doesn't matter much - if it rains, the level will go higher, if it doesn't it will go much lower.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:36 pm

I think the lake will rise a dramatic amount in the coming week with 20-40mm likely in the region over the coming weekend. It is also looking promising for another rain and storm event moving into the middle of next week with a trough stalling with a cold front over the region. Key to that system will be moisture...

Great to read some good news finally!! Hopefully it can get some more water in it before the summer holidays!!
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Sep 24, 2009 2:45 pm

Heading up there in a couple of hour Karl, which will be nice!! Unfortunately get very poor internet signal, so I may resort to SMS updates to you to report in current weather thread.

Current stream of shower activity is hitting Eildon nicely. Like you, if we can jag 30mm from now til Sunday, I and many others will be rapt!!!

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:07 pm

Yes it appears that Wes has poor internet signal. Reporting rainfall from morning up there and 13mm til 6pm. I beleive about 25mm has fallen there with another 10mm possible overnight. Certainly will be one happy chappy reporting in tomorrow.

Will bring updates as they come to hand.
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Sun Sep 27, 2009 4:33 pm

Karl, thanks again mate!!

As much as I love the place, I rue its' remoteness. We get no Melbourne TV, poor radio signal and infrequent internet/phone connectivity. Frustrating when the best rains are happening.

All in all 57mm since Friday which has put plenty of smiles on the locals faces. Great inflows and plenty of water lying around the place. Went into Alexandra on Friday and they were more excited about the weather than the Grand Final....

Looking forward to seeing some inflow reports tomorrow as well as the Lake Level. May get to 27% by the end of the week.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Mon Sep 28, 2009 7:37 am

Current inflow is 20,900ml. Lake now at 25.3% Very Happy
Upper Goulburn still flowing strong, with the chance of further rain this week!!
Happy days!!

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Mon Sep 28, 2009 9:27 am

Latest inflow is 21,000ML and with the level now at 26%. An amazing result over the past few days.

And with the Upper Goulburn still in minor flood, inflows will be staying very strong until the weekend, especially if more showers/rain eventuate!!

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Lily on Mon Sep 28, 2009 12:32 pm

I've just read this whole thread, I had no idea it was here! Thank you for posting so much info, Sniper Smile

Fantastic to hear the recent rain has made a difference up there, hopefully things will hold up until we get up there for Christmas. Would be great to see the lake at a decent level (everything crossed for more rain lol!).

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Sep 28, 2009 4:21 pm

Your Welcome Wes!! Smile

I love Eildon and I am so sick of seeing it so brown and foul...it is great going into Spring with some good green pastures, and rapid inflows.

Could be another 5-15mm this week.
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Tue Sep 29, 2009 7:27 am

Glad you found the thread Lily!! A bit of a love of mine is the Lake!!!
It has not been full capacity since 1996, which funnily enough goes hand in hand with our rainfall deficiencies.

Filling season normally ceases during October, Cup weekend at the latest, when increase in water allocations occur. The lake is currently 2.6% higher than the same time last year, but well down historically. Once filling season concludes, the lake generally drops between 10-15% throughout the warmer months. You should still see the lake above 20% at Christmas, which is still more water than Sydney Harbour.

On a side note, I was trying to work how much 21,000ML was. An Olympic size swimming pool holds 2.5ML, therefore 8,400 swimming pools were flowing into the lake on Sunday. Crazy huh!!!

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Tue Sep 29, 2009 8:34 am

Current inflows of 21,600ML see the level now at 26.6%.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Lily on Tue Sep 29, 2009 12:04 pm

On a side note, I was trying to work how much 21,000ML was. An Olympic size swimming pool holds 2.5ML, therefore 8,400 swimming pools were flowing into the lake on Sunday. Crazy huh!!

Sure is lol! Great news, here's hoping it continues. And thanks again for posting everything here, good reading Smile

I think I chatted to you over at WZ about Eildon a bit. My family were stuck up there in the fires for a few days, was a tense night that one trying to get hold of them. Mobiles weren't picking up any signal (which is typical for up there, you're right!). We stay at Bluegums when we're up there, brother and sister in law have an onsite van there and up until this year did have a boat, but now have jet skis so we're looking forward to trying them out this year. We drag our house on wheels (caravan) up the spur, annoying all the other road users as we meander our way upwards Twisted Evil Razz

We're tossing up whether to go up there this weekend, I still haven't been up to Marysville since the fires, but I noticed last night the roads up to the snow are closed so a bit unsure whether to go up there or not now. Might wait until it warms up a bit and head down to Inverloch instead this weekend. Just waiting for the models to sort out what they're doing, that will determine where we go but I'm seriously tempted to go to Inverloch now if only to take advantage of the heated pool (keeps the kids happy lol).

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Tue Sep 29, 2009 1:21 pm

If you are heading to Blue Gums, have tried going up there via Yea and Alexandra? A more boring trip but you avoid Healesville and the Spur, whilst annoying less drivers.

I noticed that the Goulburn downstream from the pondage to Thornton is very low in parts, due to the lack of outflows.

The weekend is looking ok at the moment. None of the models are really jumping onto any type of activity. However you wont be getting any 25-30 degree temps.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Lily on Tue Sep 29, 2009 3:54 pm

Yep, we're going to go that way this year, have a new bigger van and the Spur looks much less appealing when you're lugging something that big behind you lol. We'll be heading off early Boxing Day, so shouldn't be too much traffic anyway hopefully. I've got to come back down for work for a few days (woooohooooo, house to myself!!!) so I'll have my car and will be able to get up and back through the Spur whilst on my own Smile

Just a little concerned about the site we've got at Bluegums this year, apparently it's right next to where they have the live entertainment for New Years Shocked I think I'll have a couple of tired, ratty kids on New Years Day to deal with, joy Laughing

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Oct 01, 2009 7:21 am

Well - after one of the most celebrated rainstorms in recent years, Eildon has responded with a magnificent rise of 2.90% to be at 27.23%. This is the biggest weekly rise we have experienced since 12th July 2007, and it is the 7th biggest weekly rise in the last decade. It is also an incredible 342% of the usual rise at this time of year. Fantastic, fantastic, fantastic.

For the first time in I don't know how long - ALL of the indexes are positive, and by a long way. The lake is now 36.09% of ATA, which is up by 3.48%. It is 96.77% of L5A, up 7.98% in the week, and raising the serious possibility of going above the five year average in the very near future. The lake gained 2.83% on last year's level during the week to be 3.74% higher. It gained 1.47% on 1983, although it is still behind by 25.49%. It also gained 1.35% on 2003 to be 10.32% behind, and 3.76% on 2006 levels to be 7.38% ahead. Great figures.

The physical lake level has lept up by 173 cm in the week, which is almost 25 cm per day! The level is now 26.21 metres below full.

Of course, in the course of this big rise, we have seen the lake rush past the 25% level for the first time in 177 weeks - you can go right back to 16th March 2006 to see it above the current level. Amazing amazing.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Oct 01, 2009 7:23 am

Current in flow is 15,000ML, outflow is 130ml.
Updated lake level is 27.7%

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Fri Oct 09, 2009 12:12 pm

The runoff continues from the fanstastic rains last week, and our lake reaps the benefits. It rises to 29.30% of capacity, up 2.07% on last week's result and therefore very nearly 5% in two weeks. The rise is more than 2 1/2 times the average rise for this time of year (269.8%) and takes the lake to its highest level since March 2006.

The indicies are all positive. The lake is 38.44% of the all time average (ATA) which is up by 2.35% and the highest it has been since week 23 in 2006 (early June). It is 102.29% of the Last 5 Years Average (L5A), up by 5.52% and the first time Eildon has been higher than its five year average since the end of June 2006. All specific year comparisons are up too. It rose 2.02% on last year's figure to be 5.76% higher, it rose 0.75% on 1983 levels (now 24.74% lower) and 0.79% on 2003 levels (now 9.55% lower). It also rose 2.80% on 2006 levels to be 10.18% higher. Yep - more than 10% higher - that's worth a wow!

This is still the fifth lowest level in history - above 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2008. It is a fair way lower still than the next worst - 1999 the lake was at 36.5%.

The physical lake level was up (of course) by 1.17 metres, so it is now 25.04 metres below full. For those who have been following my stats for a few years, you might recall that in the dark days of May 2007, the lake "bottomed out" 45.68 metres down - so it has risen more than 20 metres since then, which is a very big rise!

Another little stat I noticed of interest is that Waranga Basin has risen by another 5% to be above half full - 50.22%, which is a fair bit higher than the 38% figure it recorded 2 weeks ago! As I mentioned, the more water there is in Waranga, the less they have to take out of Eildon to supply the Bendigo water supply and north-western irrigation needs.

So - a fantastic result, and the last two weeks have taken our lake to levels we have only been dreaming of after a pretty dry winter. In theory at least, October and November can be quite wet months. Most recently in 2005 the lake rose a total of 14% during the course of Spring. If we can do that again, we'd end up around 35% peak.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Luken on Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:28 pm

Great news Sniper. And with another good rain event progged for next week maybe you will get closer to 40% by the end of spring.

What % full would the lake have to be to get anything more than a dribble under the bridge at Bonnie Doon?

I only ask because I don't make to Eildon much these days, but have been driving over the Bonnie Doon bridge since I was a kid, so tis is really the only perception I have of how full it is.

Also a friend has a house up at Jamieson, right next to the Jamieson Brewery backing onto the upper Goulburn. Always dream of seeing house boats coming up to the back of the pub and mooring for the night (like they used to in the "good old days"). I know it is a long way way off that, but any idea the sort of % it would have to get to to fill so far upstream??
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