Lake Eildon

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:18 am

A vast improvement from the last few years. Not sure about 40% as filling season usually ends around Cup weekend. I thought somewhere around 35%-37% is not out of the question. The positive is that outflows are still very low. This will obviously change during summer.

As for Bonnie Doon, at 40% you will see pooling where the creek is no longer noticeable. 60% is the magic number for that part of the lake.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:46 am

On current prognosis - I would expect filling season to continue beyond cup weekend.
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Wed Oct 14, 2009 8:56 am

Karl Lijnders wrote:On current prognosis - I would expect filling season to continue beyond cup weekend.

I agree Karl.. Another 18mm to 9am today sees the the lake over 30%!!

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Oct 14, 2009 9:17 am

Looks like another 10mm there today.

~40-50mm in the Bass water catchments overnight - right near the desal' plant... Rolling Eyes
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Oct 15, 2009 7:16 am

Another good week at Eildon saw the lake rise by a further 0.99% to be 30.29% of capacity. This is a fantastic weekly rise for this time of year - two and a quarter times the average (225.3% to be exact), and has taken the lake to its highest level since 2nd March 2006 - 189 weeks ago.

For the third week in a row, all of the indicies I generally report are positive. That is pretty unusual - don't know how far back you'd have to go to see that sort of result. Anyway, ATA is up by 1.07% to 39.51%, and L5A is up 2.93% to 105.22%. The lake rose 1.10% compared with last year to be be 6.86% higher, 0.26% on 1983 to be 24.48% lower, 0.10% on 2003 levels to be 9.43% lower and 1.51% on 2006 levels to be 11.69% higher. The comparison with 2006 is extraordinary: 15 weeks ago, our levels were 9.48% lower than 2006, meaning we have gained 21.17% in comparison in those 15 weeks. That is the difference between a dry spring and a wet spring...

Physical lake level is up a further 54 cm to be 24.50 metres below full, which is around 80 feet down. I know - still a long way, but I was excited when we got the lake above 100 feet and that was only 7 weeks ago.

It's a great result, and we can only hope it continues to rain and the water continues to run. Although the long term averages say there is only 2 more weeks of rises in Eildon, the weather need not listen to that. If it keeps raining, it will keep coming up.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:19 pm

Well the tap is going to be turned off and the oven turned on this week so there will be some runoff continuing but diminishing somewhat by this time next week.

Hopefully a big system towards months end with 30-60mm and some thunderstorms.
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:48 am

Eildon is up up up. Fantastic numbers today! The current lake level is 32.21%, up 1.92% on a week ago. This weekly rise is more than 7 times the average rise for this time of year (734.5% to be accurate) and represents the highest rise for this week since 1992 and the fourth biggest rise ever.

The indicies are again all positive - it keeps happening! Against ATA, Eildon is 41.87%, up by 2.36%, and it is 110.54% of L5A, up 5.32%. It is now 9.03% higher than last year (up 2.17%) and 14.08% higher than 2006 levels (up another 2.39%). It is still 23.87% lower than 1983 levels (up by 0.61%) and 8.48% lower than 2003 levels, but that is also up by 0.95%. Overall, it is still the 5th lowest level ever, but it is now starting to close the gap on 1999 levels (37.42% and falling).

The physical lake level is also coming up, and is 23.48 metres below full. It has risen 101 cm in the week, which is almost 15 cm (6 inches) per day.

We are really in a purple patch for inflows - with a week to go, the October gain of 7.88% is already the 7th highest ever, and with more than a month to go, the Spring gain of 12.30% is already the 13th best. It is keeps raining like this, some very impressive records could be attained.

A great result - let's pray it keeps coming up like this!

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Luken on Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:53 am

We were up at Jamieson over the weekend. Went out on a 6 man inflatable whitewater raft from about 1/2 way up to Kevington back down to just after Gooleys bridge.

Lots of water in the river.

The Goulburn is still very dirty apparanty a mudslide upstream that keeps letting very dirty water into the river everytime it rains. The Jamieson river is much cleaner. Easily visable difference where the 2 meet.

Great news to hear that it has still been rising. Although considering no rain now for over a week the inflows should drop off pretty quick I would think.
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:08 pm

Great to hear that you have been in the area Luken!!

Inflows are down below 4,000ML/day but the lake is ever rising as the outflow is still capped at 130ML/day.

This weeks storm outbreak will probably be more likely around the ranges and Eildon etc. As Karl mentioned in the current event thread, inflows will increase quickly.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Oct 29, 2009 7:27 am

A good result this week, but not in keeping with the last few weeks, admittedly. Eildon rose by 0.89% to be at 33.10%. On average this is the last week of the winter rise, and usually quite small. So, this rise is well over 4 times average (439%) and is the 9th best result for week 44 ever.

Unfortunately, some of the comparisons did drop off, but not the averages. Compared to ATA, Eildon was up 1.04% to 42.91%. Compared to L5A it was up 2.71% to be 113.25%. It gained 1.17% on last year to be 10.20% higher, and gained 1.51% on 2006 levels to be 15.60% higher. But it lost 0.16% on 1983 levels to be 24.03% lower and lost 0.21% on 2003 levels to be 8.69% lower.

The physical lake level was up by 46 cm to be 23.02 metres below full.

Overall, this has boosted the October figure to 8.77%, and it therefore remains the 7th best October result ever.

Next week, the averages tip back the other way and the lake starts to fall. But - it all depends on local conditions. If more rain comes through then often the lake will continue to rise through November and even into December. It's been a good spring already - let's hope there is still a bit more goodness to squeeze out.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Mon Nov 09, 2009 8:30 am

Eildon is holding on, with a bit of a rise this week when the averages all point to the lake going down by now. The current level is 33.47%, a rise of 0.37% in the week.

The usual thing is that the lake drops for the first time for the new season this week, so it is literally off the scale by comparison in percentage terms, but it is the 13th best result for week 45 in history. To celebrate a little milestone, this result takes the lake above 1/3 full for the first time since 16th February 2006!

Most of the indicies are pretty good. Compared to ATA, Eildon is up by 0.50% to 43.41%. Compared to L5A it is up by 0.78% to 114.03%. It gained 0.65% on last year's level to be 10.85% higher. But it lost 0.13% on 1983 levels to be 24.16% lower and 0.66% on 2003 levels to be 9.35% lower. Compared with 2006, Eildon is now 16.55% higher, which is a gain of 0.95% in the week, and now it is very nearly DOUBLE the volume of water in the lake 3 years ago.

The physical lake level is also up of course, by 19 cm in the week to be 22.83 metres below full.

During the week, several of you reported that irrigation draw-downs have begun, with Eildon suffering from outflows being increased to about 8 times the "environmental flow" volume. This will very quickly stop the lake from rising, unless there are ongoing significant rain events. If we can get some rain, and the lake can hold itself up for the next few weeks, it will make a major difference to the size of the summer drop, so let's hope and pray there is still some more rain to come.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 09, 2009 4:13 pm

Chances of a moderate rain event look likely towards the end of the month. But until then it is going to dry out intensely so the drop will be huge this summer IMO.
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:57 am

Even with a Wet or wetter Jan and feb on the cards? I'm not so sure I personally don't think it will be as bad this Summer compare to the past few summers of dams/lakes dropping off in levels especially if we have a decent start to the year which is what i expect.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:29 am

Got down to 7% a few years back. May dip below 18% this season. Outflows are currently 2600ML, Inflows are around half that.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:49 am

Well - it's a curious result; over the course of the week, Eildon has risen by 0.01% to be 33.48% of capacity. Having said that - watching the results during the week tend to indicate that the lake reached a peak on Monday or thereabouts, and has been going back down over the last couple of days.

At this time of year, any rise is a good rise. So the indicies are mostly positive. Against ATA, the lake is 43.52%, up by 0.11%. Against L5A, it is up 0.10% to be 114.13%. It gained 0.21% on last year's level to be 11.06% higher, and 0.52% on 2006 levels to be 17.07% higher; there is now officially more than double the water in the lake than was there at this time in 2006. But it lost more ground compared with 1983, down by 0.23% to be 24.39% lower, and it last 0.58% on 2003 levels to be 9.93% lower. This year at Eildon remains the 51st best out of 55 years (or perhaps it is easier to understand - the fifth worst level ever).

The physical lake level only moved 1 cm over the week to be 22.82 metres below full.

The evidence suggests that Eildon is on the way down and so this will be the top result for 2009. But it is not unusual for a late Spring storm to bring a big inflow into the lake and change things again. As recently as last year, the lake dropped away during November, but then thanks to rain came back up nearly a full 1% in December. While these "second peaks" happen about once every second year on average, they are rarely very large. So it would seem our dream of seeing our lake reach 35% is not going to happen.

Still - Spring has been fairly good. Almost a 12% rise compared with the average of 6.55% is impressive, if we can hold on to that water for the next couple of weeks.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Luken on Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:14 am

Might get that 2nd peak after this weekend Sniper. Fingers crossed for the lake.
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Wed Nov 18, 2009 7:45 am

Luken wrote:Might get that 2nd peak after this weekend Sniper. Fingers crossed for the lake.

Will need all of 2 inches to get the run-off given the baking temps experienced over the ranges. Anything is bonus now, as long is it not flash flooding which will cause more harm than good.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:12 am

It seems summer has arrived in Victoria - in more ways than one. But a part of it is Eildon is on the way down... this week it has lost 0.52% to be at 32.96%. This is almost double the average fall for this time of year, and signals the start of a long summer season.

The indicies all suffered, and are mostly negative. The lake fell to 42.99% of ATA, down 0.53%. It dropped to 113.59% of L5A, down 0.54%. It lost 0.30% on last year to be 10.76% higher. It also lost 0.66% on 1983 levels to be 25.05% lower, and 0.50% on 2003 levels to be 10.43% lower. It did, however, still gain 0.13% on 2006 levels to be 17.20% higher.

The physical lake level fell as well, down by 27 cm to be 23.09 metres below full.

As I mentioned last week, it is not unusual for Eildon to drop for a week or two and then rebound back up. It could happen this year too, but this is a big drop for a first week of the turnaround, and the current hot conditions do not bode well. Even if it does rebound somewhat, it would seem last week's result of 33.48% is probably as high as the lake is going to get this year. I suppose the inevitable question now is - how low will end end up dropping?

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:15 am

Current Inflow: 900ML
Current Outflow: 5,000ML

Despite an improved filling season, I fear that if this weather continues with below average rainfall, the lake % will be back under double figures. I have always tried to be optimistic when talking about the lake, however if our rainfall trend continues and the introduction of the pipeline, the lake could almost dry up within 3-4 years.

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Sun Nov 22, 2009 2:10 pm

38mm for Lake Eildon Very Happy

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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Nov 22, 2009 7:41 pm

Very very useful and the exciting chance of 50mm later this week could start to see some flattening out of outflow/inflow ratio and the loss to the lake. I think personally there will be more than 50mm at this stage but some time to watch the system evolve.
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Re: Lake Eildon

Post  Sniper on Thu Nov 26, 2009 8:56 am

In a week with quite a bit of rain, the irrigation pressures downstream have still taken their toll, and Eildon dropped by -0.21% to be 32.75% at present. This is just under half of the average drop for this week (49.10% to be exact). I think the lake is actually rising slightly at the moment, but the overall weekly trend was down slightly.

The indicies are mostly hardly changed, but where they have they have mostly gone down. ATA is 42.96%, down by 0.03%. L5A is 113.51%, down 0.08%. The lake dropped 0.52% on last year to be 10.24% higher. It dropped 0.21% on 1983 levels (25.26% down) and 0.28% on 2003 levels (10.71% down). However, it did gain yet another 0.30% on 2006 levels to be 17.50% lower. If you can imagine our lake with 17 and a half percent less water than now, then you would have a picture of the disaster that 3 years ago was unfolding.

The physical lake level has dropped by 11cm to be 23.20 metres below full.

As this is the last report for November, I can summarise the month, and spring overall. The lake dropped by 0.35% in November, which is the 27th best result ever, and well under half of the average drop for the month (0.90%). Spring overall saw Eildon rise by 12.84% which compares very well... although it is only the 13th best ever, it is very nearly double the average rise of 6.54%. Of course, as we are well aware, this makes up for a dry winter where Eildon only rose this year by 7.75% when the average is 15.71%. So the TOTAL movement since the start of June works out to a rise of 20.59% compared with an average of 22.25%. So, despite the excitement of the last couple of months, we have not quite kept up with the average rise overall...

With rain predicted for the coming days, it is still possible we might see more increases in the lake's level. Let's hope so - December rises are very valuable in terms of the overall levels!

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Re: Lake Eildon

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