South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

That third rain band coming in looks very promising. I hope it delivers.

Yeah, the radar loop with wind shift is looking very promising.

Recieved 3mm out of the first band, missed the second......lets hope 3rd delivers.

Ohhh yeah! Just had a look and I reckon that band approaching Geelong, will give us a very nice soaking!

Rained lightly most of the way home with the odd thicker patch, before drying up completely east of Traralgon as per usual. Looking at the Melbourne Radar makes me wish I had have stayed a few more hours to see whether that band of rain did anything spectacular. Looks like there is multiple heavy cores in amongst, most likely to be hail as it is signalling a shift to the colder airmass and southwesterlies. Watch for those stream showers to develop over the eastern suburbs overnight.

As for out this way, wind will be the most exciting thing to look forward to

Looking good now, if the bay doesnt kill it for us in the s/e.

evening all, wow love the look of that radar!! About to go outside to check the gauge before it hits.

This band looks mighty good. This band (from front edge to back) should last over an area/station/hour for around 45mins to an hour. This should ensure some 7-15mm totals if the band maintains its strength.

Special mention to the Prom, 35mm so far

1.2mm here today. 5mm since Tuesday.

Wow, that rainband looks to be steamin' in from the South-West right now!

Fat, juicy raindrops just commenced falling here in Ballan.

Fingers and toes crossed for everyone involved

Received 0.5mm here today, brings total so far to 3.5mm.

fairly solid rain here at the moment. Not as heavy as the shower/hail at 2:30pm today, man it was wild.

Wow she looks sweet coming in on the radar.....

typhoon29 wrote:fairly solid rain here at the moment. Not as heavy as the shower/hail at 2:30pm today, man it was wild.

I hear ya there Typhoon. I was at work, out at Mount Helen, and it came down at a stupendous, ridiculous, blissful rate!

Classic winters day today - max of 9.0C with rain developing. 6mm so far since ~6am, with a peak rate of 35mm/hr (puts the event total on ~15mm so almost respectable).

BTW those wondering about (convective showers dying when they hit the bay) the answer is here - http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/temps.html . The bay is about 2C colder than Bass Strait this time of year, so convection which hits it gets cut off quickly and collapses - the reverse happens in SW'ly flow in spring->autumn when showers running across the bay pick-up. HOWEVER, the bay effect can work the other way with stratiform cloud - particularly drizzle as it cools the lower atmosphere layer dropping the cloud base.

Next band is not as impressive as it looks as it will be carrying a lot of bright banding from snow to fairly low levels. Still - should see 2-10mm for most of us around Melbourne.

Longer term looks very showery/drizzly the next 3 days (may clear up on Sunday then return briefly on Monday). Main cold air goes through tonight so best chances for hail/thunder is next ~12 hours (IMHO). Am still hoping for a further 40mm up here.

Back edge getting intense but rainfall totals not reflecting same

Certainly gaining in intensity as it approaches, lets hope it keeps that strength as it passes over us and the catchments..

BTW notice that Wilsons Prom has just clocked up 100mm for the last 30 hours. Could be some interesting flows going through tidal river. That's the second BIG fall down there in a month.

Hey Seb & Thyhoon just wondering that band coming in over you guys is that big fat rain drops or soaking thick rain?? Cos if its the 1st I'm afraid that won't amount to much looks worse on the radar than it really is but if its the 2nd we should get a handy/nice drop

At the moment, definitely that of the second kind mate. Nice, thick, steady rain coming down. Wind all but dropped off 15 minutes ago, and it hasn't let up since.

Steady rain here, Id say 5-10mm/hr rate. Hope to hear from someone on the Geelong road, looks intense over there.

It did just begin to rain, but wouldnt you know it, it has stopped again!

Pouring in Trentham ...up to 9.8mm since midnight. Today's temperature range was 4.8°C to 5.9°C. Currently 5.2°C

it has begun to rain again however looks like it wont amount to much here. There is heavier stuff to the north and VER heavy rain to the south and it looks like there is gap in between. Love living in a desert!

Yeah, lots of bright banding on the radar. Rain is not heavy at all, just solid moderate stuff and more of the 'fat drops' variety thanks to freshly melted snowflakes hitting the ground. Won't register large totals for most. Not much in the way of wind either.

4mm since last night. 22mm all up for the last few days, not expecting a great deal more.

What do we have to do to get something decent Norfolk. There is this rain shield over Caroline Springs that won't go away!