South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Jun 28, 2009 8:51 am

Yes GFS got a bit tad excited this morning nevetheless should be some useful falls about this coming week as for once the wind will come in all directions between N & S Via Westerly quadret which will allow most places of the state to get some useful to good rainfall. At this stage can see snow down to perhaps 700 metres but more likely 800 metres at the moment later this week.

No worries Alexia Very Happy your welcome. Might be a fairly big call but I think theres a good chance you may see between another 40-70mm there this week until next weekend Alexia which would be fantastic I'm guessing, let us know how you go during the course of the week. I think even Melbourne (Western and Central suburbs even stand a chance of getting 20-25mm this week and of course more out east)

At this stage I expect 50-70cms on the snow resorts especially anything over 1300 metres UKMET has some big rain in the NE Tuesday (some 25mm+ falls progged with the rainband) that should quickly turn to snow on the higher peaks as soon as it begins so the moisture is there and the temps will gradually lower so after a false start to the snow season looks like things will get back to on track this week Smile


Cheers, John.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jun 28, 2009 10:08 am

Yep, things will get right back on track for the resorts in a big way if this system comes off. Thought the same thing about GFS going overboard but 25-50mm is definitely on the cards for this week and there will be locally higher falls 50mm+. I suppose GFS is also exaggerating the cold outbreak for Friday night right through the weekend. Thought I saw some -2C or lower 850Ts in there in the latest run but i may have been hallucinating. Laughing

Either way, as John has also predicted, snow down to 700m-800m Friday night into Saturday and quite a few showers widespread through central areas would ensure some snow down to the upper parts of Mount Macedon township. Would be great if it came off, one thing I find though is that models often lower the snow levels the closer you get to the day so that is something to look out for also. Very Happy

Fairly cool here atm, 9.5C and low level moisture is pretty healthy and we have some low level Cu going up overhead. Is it going to dry out heaps as the day goes on?

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Luken on Sun Jun 28, 2009 10:15 am

Does look good for later in the week. Im going to be in the Strathbogie ranges next weekend so would be nice to get a cold and wet weekend. Snow would be nice, but I think where we will be is only around 650m so will be marginal at this stage. Still rain and cold in front of the fire would be great!
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jun 28, 2009 2:31 pm

As much as GFS is exaggerating it is definitely fantastic signs to see those totals progged. The main thing there is that it is continuing to ramp up totals, basically gives us confidence something decent will come off as opposed to the hundreds of times the models downgrade this far out.

Still reckon widespread 25mm in the south up to 50mm along the ranges and isolated falls up to 100mm on the NE ranges and wettest parts of the Melbourne catchment. North of the ranges, 10-25mm looks a good bet. SW should also see falls 50mm+. Of course the trend is for things to rapidly downgrade so I will not be surprised if we only end up with 10-20mm but basically it is the best I've seen the model progs for here in a long time. Look out for that low GFS winds up towards the weekend. A far out prospect at this stage but the basic pattern supports this happening, SE flow would be very nice if it comes off the way GFS is saying. Again though it is a far off prospect.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Dane on Sun Jun 28, 2009 3:35 pm

Models still looking good for later this week with BOM going for possible hail and thunder on Thursday and Friday. The only thing I cant work out is why they are going for a max of 15c on Thursday and 16c on Friday when the average max for this time of year is 14c, not until Sunday do they go for a below expected top of 12c.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jun 28, 2009 3:49 pm

Yeah, it (the BOM Forecast) is all wrong and all over the place, particularly after 4 days. It has been consistently like this since the new automated forecasting system came in and I guess you just have to accept that it's useless beyond 4 days.

The cold days to me look like Friday and Saturday. Sunday will still be cold but the peak of it will have moved out by then. Also 'Areas of rain' in the official Melbourne forecast but the summary is for 'a little rain', which doesn't make sense to me, it seems that everytime rain is forecast it is just 'a little rain' regardless of what the models are indicating?

Anyway, that's just the little irritations we have to deal with.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  NoRelationToNed on Sun Jun 28, 2009 4:53 pm

GFS reckons the catchments are in for a real boost if things pan out right: http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=vic&days= would that it were true!!
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jun 28, 2009 5:24 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:Yeah, it (the BOM Forecast) is all wrong and all over the place, particularly after 4 days. It has been consistently like this since the new automated forecasting system came in and I guess you just have to accept that it's useless beyond 4 days.

The cold days to me look like Friday and Saturday. Sunday will still be cold but the peak of it will have moved out by then. Also 'Areas of rain' in the official Melbourne forecast but the summary is for 'a little rain', which doesn't make sense to me, it seems that everytime rain is forecast it is just 'a little rain' regardless of what the models are indicating?

Anyway, that's just the little irritations we have to deal with.

BoM cannot get a break can they? Once the new system starts working great, the patterns change and everything in the Melbourne forecast goes weird, but I must say it has been very accurate for my area for the whole seven days lately. I think the new system is good, just needs a few things worked on, which I currently believe they are. I will find out when I do work experience there anyway.

Well quite a complex week of weather going to happen. GFS and EC to a point tonight have UPGRADED again in-terms of rainfall totals, particularly GFS for Friday, drenching the southwest area. It looks as if there will be 100mm+ falls across the state, partcularly for the southwest, northeast ranges and Melbourne catchemnt areas. Many other parts should see 50mm+ falls and and the only place which I hate to see miss our is the northwest, with not that much rainfall expected there compared to the rest of the state. Anyway, things are going well and I will talk later tonight, and will add in a forecast, since I am going out now.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  typhoon29 on Sun Jun 28, 2009 5:54 pm

that 'weak' cold front has a bit of a sting in its tail with embedded thunderstorms firing as it approaches Mt Gambier. Powerstorm you'll have a good night watching the lightning. I fear that coldfront won't get here.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Rhino on Sun Jun 28, 2009 6:17 pm

Certainly the best looking statewide rains for a long time. Would be expecting around 25mm for the week here but would'nt be surprised to get more depending on how long the northerly hangs around. Had good rain here for the month (62mm) so it will be good to get plenty of rain this week just to get the creeks flowing, it's really what we have been missing, solid follow-up rain. Hope the models stay consistent with this one but everyone should be fairly happy by next weekend. Very Happy

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jun 28, 2009 6:51 pm

Already raining here. Light of course but some decent sized drops amongst it, not the usual drizzle we get here in this sort of setup.

Each to their own regarding the automated BOM forecasts. I won't comment on them anymore if it upsets people. Wink Just thought I'd give my opinion as it was brought up in the previous post. The best forecasts you can get are on here from DJ and Karl. Smile

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Pengaz on Sun Jun 28, 2009 9:00 pm

Looking like a real winters blast from the middle of the week through to the weekend, some nice wet southerlies right through to the end of the outlook period. The sort of setups the catchments have been missing out on for a long time, gee i hope they get a good drink. We'll be in prime position here in the eastern suburbs for some ripper stream showers to set up, 50-100mm is definitely a reasonable prog at the moment and lets hope they hold. Long overdue for a good event.

Meanwhile Ive been loving watching Perth's weather over the last few days-they have been smacked by cold front after cold front. Watching it on the footy last night was some of the most atrocious conditions ive ever seen lately with the wind making the goal posts wobble violently. Bit like what it used to be like out at Waverley Park in those unforgiving wet southwesterlies!

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Jun 28, 2009 9:10 pm

Gees can't recall GFS ever progging so much rain for the Eastern and NE ranges of Victoria on the 00z run its either lost the plot or onto something that some otehr models aren't either way it still looks fairy good this week.

What I'm also seeing is both GFS and GASP keep the high well out west even still on Sunday where EC wants to push it in quicker and clear things Sunday so be interesting to see which way things go if it will remain showey Sunday as well like GFS and GASP indicate or if things start clearing up Sunday like EC says. Next few runs of the models will be crucial to how this week swings.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:58 am

GFS this morning looks amazing - but sadly is the only model with the low on Thursday developing over Vic which gives the system the real bang. Still - all models are going for very good falls with 25-50mm widespread in the south (west of about Melbourne) and along the ranges. Also a big change in the air mass from very warm air for winter Monday/Tuesday - 850T getting up to near 10C Shocked dropping to a more winter like -2C by the weekend.

Picked up about 1mm this morning in the Dandenongs as a mix of big thundery drops and highly evaporated drizzly rain. It was heavy for a few 10 second spells.

Not much in the offering today once the showers clear the ranges.

PS great to see more good falls in the upper northeast.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Jun 29, 2009 10:14 am

Could swing either way IMO this week, though i am encouraged by the Nw cloud band streaming in ahead of the system. Really like the look of GFS, but just have a sneaking suspicion things may happen a liitle too far west and east of C Vic...which wouldnt be all that unusual of late. However good potential there in any case, if things can go right for a change could get some very good falls about the place, particularly the catchments.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 29, 2009 10:46 am

It looks like it could be a fraction too westerly for good falls. There will need to be a series of cold fronts in the stream to lift moisture and produce rainfall here. Later week when we go into SW winds it will get wet. If we get a low moving NE in the SW flow then 50-100mm is possible.

Looks very windy tomorrow with 100-120kmh winds at times in the south and ranges. A good drop for the west and north (40mm possible) with Melbourne likely to claim lighter falls nearer 10mm.

-------------------- Posted 1:58pm 29/06/2009
Tuesday: Cloud increasing over the west early with areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms developing and then spreading slowly east across the state to reach the far east tomorrow night but only very light falls there. Rain tending to showers over the southwest and clearing the north during the late afternoon. Squally northerly winds, gale force over southern and mountain VIC tending northwesterly from the west later and easing a little.

Wednesday: Early light rain easing. Scattered showers in the southwest and about the ranges developing throughout during the day and possibly tending to rain at times. Local hail and isolated thunderstorms developing mainly afternoon. Strong and gusty northerly winds shifting westerly in the southwest and later in south central areas. Snow developing down to 1000m.

Thursday: Showers about the coast and ranges becoming widespread throughout the south and scattered through the north and locally tending to rain. Local hail and thunderstorms extending inland from the southwest during the afternoon and snow developing down to 750m. Strong a gusty northwesterly winds shifting squally strong to gale force southwesterly during the day. Cold.

Friday: Showers, tending to rain at times over south central and eastern VIC. Local hail and isolated thunderstorms contracting slowly eastwards. Isolated showers over the north and blizzards easing to snow showers over the alpine resorts above 700m. Strong south to south westerly winds shifting southerly in the west later.

Saturday: Showers with local hail in southern and mountain VIC easing slowly from the west. Isolated thunderstorms about the Gippsland coast clearing during the morning. Morning frost and isolated showers in the north clearing during the morning. Snow showers about the alps. Southerly winds.

Rainfall accumulation initially in the rainband from Tuesday should be in the order of 10-20mm through much of western VIC although with northerly winds of up to 110kmh - the windward slopes of the divide should see 30-70mm out of this initial fall, particularly the NE ranges.

From Wednesday extensive showers should form over much of VIC but more concentrated in the south. Daily falls of 10-15mm is possible over large regions of southern and mountain VIC with isolated 20-25mm falls in orographically inclined regions of the south.

Melbourne should see a fairly useful period of rain late tomorrow into the evening netting up to 5-10mm then better rains as winds shift more SW later in the week with the eastern suburbs potentially accumulating up to 50mm. This focus then shifting through to the northern ranges of Melbourne where falls of 50mm is possible by sequence end.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 29, 2009 12:01 pm

Oh and about 1mm this morning from a fairly brisk shower.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Rhino on Mon Jun 29, 2009 1:19 pm

Nice forecast Karl. So I might get my 25mm then. Wink

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 29, 2009 1:34 pm

Your a good chance even getting that tomorrow... Upslide favours c and e ranges best.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Jun 29, 2009 1:37 pm

And the predictable downgrade has begun with both UKMet and GFS downscaling the rain this afternoon UKMet has downgraded the rain on the rainband tomorrow with only 5-15mm statewide now (more likely 2-7mm for Melbourne though 2mm western and northern burbs and closer to 7mm eastern and Southern burbs raindshadow will play a fair part) bit wetter on the NE ranges with falls as high as 25mm still possible which will tend to snow above 1500 metres later tomorrow.
Laps also doesn't look anything out of the ordinary starting to look like just a typical standard normal Winter LWT as it used to be but nothing startling about it at this point.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Rhino on Mon Jun 29, 2009 1:56 pm

Yep Karl, looks good for tommorow for us, 25mm going by GFS. Won't probably get that but looking nice for around here.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 29, 2009 2:01 pm

I would think the key to this system is weather that develops in the southwest flow. I still expect large falls along the divide despite the downgrade. No model picked up on the falls this weekend gone.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 29, 2009 2:06 pm

Also I think we can attribute the downgrade to the fact the flow stays too WNW this week. Hence sensational falls along the divide and west coast.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Alexia on Mon Jun 29, 2009 2:16 pm

Another 4.5mm for us this am up to around 0800hrs.We are now getting some run off can see a difference in some dams.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Jun 29, 2009 4:19 pm

Still alot of differance with EC and GFS tonight with this system and the high coming in behind it.. GFS insists in putting us in Southerlies from Friday onwards with a strong slow moving high well south of the bight edging in which is a great scenario for us while EC wants to put us in more of a WSW airstream with the high further North and moves it through quicker to our east by Monday next week. Personally don't like the Ec scenario you could almost guarantee that rainfall will be 60% less through the Western and Central suburbs of Melbourne in the EC scenario compared to GFS. This year EC has been off the boil with alot of the systems and GFS hasn't actually been to bad and probably been more accurate overall since Xmas than EC but whats the bet now we want GFS to desperately come off that EC will be right (or closer to the mark) Rolling Eyes

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

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