South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:09 pm

Great winters day in Melbourne today. Even had the unusual occurrence of getting rained on walking from the train to work, from work to lunch, from lunch to work, and work to train - about a likely as winning lotto! Couple of heavy showers through Docklands which seemed to have missed the official gauge.

Total in Ferny Creek is now upto ~37mm with plenty more to come. It should really set in across the eastern burbs of Melbourne into the Yarra Ranges the next 48 hours with thick frequent showers/drizzle and not really clear until late Monday into Tuesday (may clear up briefly ahead of Monday's front). The combination of the Bay and ranges fronting into the flow works a treat in these sets up. Models also suggest the areas around the Otways, and far east Gippsland will be a focus for rain next 48 hours.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:46 pm

Really heavy shower came through here with a nice rain roar in the distance 30s before it got here!!!

Still steady rain but the sister cell should go through you DJ up there in the hills. 9mm for the day.

Fingers crossed for another 20mm.

My sister in Monbulk recording 45mm in the past 36hrs.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  norfolk on Fri Jul 03, 2009 5:28 pm

I think it's safe to say I can go outside tonight and i won't get rained upon!

Also, I would say It will be a dry weekend for me, no rain at all!

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Jul 03, 2009 5:46 pm

Can report a bit of sleet up here in the Dandenongs with the heavy shower that came through at 6:30pm. Very wet but definitely spattering ice blobs to about 500m. Very marginal temperatures for it... max here today of 7.8C and ~5.5C at the time of the shower.

Just counted back to the start of this event and we've now had 44mm Very Happy

PS norfolk not sure how you manage on those brown blowey western plains. Lived in Epping for a while and got sick of watching black clouds nearly always passing 30km to the southeast.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Sniper on Fri Jul 03, 2009 5:55 pm

Copped the much talked about 6.30pm shower whilst in the car on the way home (via Pizza joint Very Happy).
Had a few showers in the CBD today which was good.
The wind at 6.30 this morning at train station would have frozen the proverbials off a brass monkey.
24mm here.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  SC on Fri Jul 03, 2009 6:05 pm

Copped another 9mm today since 6.30am this morning, love this winter weather.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:10 pm

Hello all 13.5mm from the system with another .5mm today. Been great for up here and we are at last having a more "normal" winter. bounce Looking like a fine weekend up here and next weekdn before hopefully another rain event coming through next weekend. Loving seeing some lush growth and puddles around!

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  mick on Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:21 pm

Good to hear, should be some nice wheat crops this time around.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  norfolk on Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:24 pm

hillybilly wrote:Can report a bit of sleet up here in the Dandenongs with the heavy shower that came through at 6:30pm. Very wet but definitely spattering ice blobs to about 500m. Very marginal temperatures for it... max here today of 7.8C and ~5.5C at the time of the shower.

Just counted back to the start of this event and we've now had 44mm Very Happy

PS norfolk not sure how you manage on those brown blowey western plains. Lived in Epping for a while and got sick of watching black clouds nearly always passing 30km to the southeast.


I have always lived out this way and so living in a 'dry' environment has been normal. It just makes me appreciate any rainfall we get, like the 1 or 2 showers we got today!

Tony

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:28 pm

hillybilly wrote:Can report a bit of sleet up here in the Dandenongs with the heavy shower that came through at 6:30pm. Very wet but definitely spattering ice blobs to about 500m. Very marginal temperatures for it... max here today of 7.8C and ~5.5C at the time of the shower.

Just counted back to the start of this event and we've now had 44mm Very Happy

PS norfolk not sure how you manage on those brown blowey western plains. Lived in Epping for a while and got sick of watching black clouds nearly always passing 30km to the southeast.

I'm in the same boat as Norfolk and can also relate to your experience in Epping. I lived in Epping my whole life up until last year and yep we didn't seem to get much compared to other parts of Melbourne. But having lived here around the Caroline Springs area for a while now I can honestly say that this & the surrounding area is clearly the worst part of Melbourne for rainfall by a long shot. It simply does not rain here!

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  samueliza on Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:45 pm

i used to live out in the Upper Yarra Valley . I now live in the western subs and truly miss the eastern subs weather. I think we might get a fraction more in Pt Cook than u do Norfolk (being on the coast and all) however its exteremely slim pickings here too. Total of 6mm for this event so far! Somewhat depressing.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Leasy on Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:11 pm

Melbourne Skywalker wrote:
hillybilly wrote:Can report a bit of sleet up here in the Dandenongs with the heavy shower that came through at 6:30pm. Very wet but definitely spattering ice blobs to about 500m. Very marginal temperatures for it... max here today of 7.8C and ~5.5C at the time of the shower.

Just counted back to the start of this event and we've now had 44mm Very Happy

PS norfolk not sure how you manage on those brown blowey western plains. Lived in Epping for a while and got sick of watching black clouds nearly always passing 30km to the southeast.

I'm in the same boat as Norfolk and can also relate to your experience in Epping. I lived in Epping my whole life up until last year and yep we didn't seem to get much compared to other parts of Melbourne. But having lived here around the Caroline Springs area for a while now I can honestly say that this & the surrounding area is clearly the worst part of Melbourne for rainfall by a long shot. It simply does not rain here!

I can also relate regarding the weather in Epping - I'm in the next suburb, Mill Park and it's irritating to see action happening either north of me or south east of me. Definitely not as bad as the western burbs' though.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:23 pm

Well, 27.9mm here out of the whole thing, pretty much nothing here today by the looks of things although there were a few moderate showers in Nth Melbourne.

As soon as the winds turn SW that is it for here. It's a pity because the models were progging winds to turn more southerly this weekend until recently when they dropped that idea and kept it all SW as usual. Will probably get one or two further showers this weekend and a mm or two on Monday but it's all very dry and boring for here until next weekend.

I have a feeling that we have had less straight southerly or S/SW flow with cold fronts and systems coming through in recent years and this has contributed further to the drying climate here relative to the the eastern side of Melbourne. I could be completely wrong but it isn't 100% normal for here to get absolutely nothing once a front passes through almost every time.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:30 pm

We seem to be battling alot here this side of town.. On top of the fact last few winters (Bar this Winter so far) theres been hardly any moisture from the North and North West, the fact the East coast has hogged all the rain, the fronts have been weaker than normal, the highs tend to be more reguraly about and stronger than normal and slower to move, we have also been battling the fact that we are having much less SSW winds behind fronts or southerlies these days (Once we do finally get a half decent system) hence the lack of rainfall on the Western side of Melbourne in the last 3 years (Only 1/3 of what we usually have had so far this year this way) can think of only 2 good fronts in recent Winters with a SSW airstream behind it and showery periods for this side of town. When I was younger this use to happen 2 to 3 times a Winter in a good Winter even more but these days you be lucky to see it happen twice every 3 years. Also the fact we have seen a lack of slow moving cut off lows in Bass straight hasn't helped either they have dried right up in recent years.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:48 pm

Yeah, good summary there John.

Basically we just don't get the 'stand up' fronts anymore and even a major LWT passage like we have seen the past four days tends to get ridged out and flattened from the west as the next large high comes in. As a result of that we get a major bias of SW winds and even more W/SW as this trend becomes more pronounced. I guess the next step is that even eastern Melbourne will start to miss out as the stream showers become limited to South Gippsland and the coasts. Rolling Eyes

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jul 04, 2009 5:34 am

OK... not meaning to rub it in Smile But a pea soup for up here last night and this morning with continuous drizzle and the occasional heavy showers. Gauge suggests about 8mm more fell over night (though I have big under read problem with trees in these set ups) so about 40mm for the 48 hours.

Looks like another wet day for us - though the showers should change over to be more convective as we shift back into cold air advection and it becomes more unstable in the low levels (the 850Ts drop by ~3C today between 10am and 10pm) and then a further 2C (to about -3 tomorrow morning over Melbourne). Could be worth a drive to Donna Buang - if your up that way I'll be on the orange toboggan with a 3 year old Very Happy Colder low levels should also see the convection shared around a bit more including into the western burbs.

Couple of things to watch out for - could see snow flurries to lowish levels tomorrow AM - a -3C usually translates into snow to about 800m. Also, an very sharp second cold pool is coming up on Monday and will see 850Ts drop to near -5C in Gippsland so would suggest potential for a burst of heavy showers out that way.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 4

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Sat Jul 04, 2009 8:19 am

OK... not meaning to rub it in Smile
Gauge says 18mm since 9 am yesterday - so about 39mm for the 48 hours.
Nice and slushy out there now, time to get back outside and waste some water so the tank overflow doesnt just go to waste.
Have my new weather station set up in the spare room waiting for someone to come home from work and set it up for me.
I am looking for some advice on where to put the rain collector.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Jul 04, 2009 8:44 am

Do I actually live in the same city as you? It's mostly sunny here and windy, there is some cloud but not enough to look threatening! It could change later but at this stage, just another typical dry sunny winter's day!!!

Tony

Edit: It is now cloudy! Maybe we might actually see some showers? Nah doubt it! lol

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  mick on Sat Jul 04, 2009 9:07 am

I will swap my stream showers for the storms you lot in the west have been getting in recent years. Laverton, Melton, Avalon have all become new storm capitals.

Frogs are going off around here.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Jul 04, 2009 10:19 am

Up to 13.4mm to 9am. Really thick drizzly rain last night. Amazingly moist still. Showers should increase a little later.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  SC on Sat Jul 04, 2009 10:21 am

11.5mm from yesterday and overnight, bringing the total here to 42.5mm for this system.

Great to see water storages rose by 22 billion litres(0.7%) now 26.1%.
Melbourne Water
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sat Jul 04, 2009 10:28 am

26mm here all up, been a good stream set up for us out here and its only just stopped now. Very moist showers this morning, almost similar to Qld type rain..
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Jul 04, 2009 11:16 am

don't know if it's a change in wind direction, but we have finally started to recieve some drizzly mizzly stuff. Also an increase in the wind. Finally it looks like winter today!!!

Tony

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Jul 04, 2009 11:25 am

Same here Tony, a few light showers and mostly cloudy. Might see a bit of an increase in showers as the colder air that David mentioned comes in. 9C atm which would be about a degree above average for this time of year.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Pengaz on Sat Jul 04, 2009 11:29 am

We've had a welcome burst of showers through here in Sale since mid morning (I was stupid enough to decide to wash my car outside today cyclops ); although barely registering 0.5mm or so (takes us to a feeble 5.0mm for the event). The wind is still gusting from the W but the showers seem to be coming in from a more SW'ly direction today, opening us up a bit out of the mini rain shadow that the Strezlecki's seem to provide us with in these setups. Judging by the satpic it seems like a mini front has moved through South Gippsland this morning.

Still seems a tad unstable out there so I wouldnt rule out a few more showers through the arvo. We're still in the mix for a few showers until Monday as the winds swing around to moist southerlies (onshore for us out here) as the low clears eastwards and the high moves in.

Hillbilly-I reckon I'll move up your way one day, love the mix of weather you report from up there. After living in Clayton for 3 years and observing how well Southwesterlies favour the development for stream showers off the bay, i think living that little bit higher in elevation would be prime for this weather (especially when its close to snowing)!

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

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