South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Jun 29, 2009 4:39 pm

Yep exactly Johnno dont like EC at all tonight, that scenario looks like just a regular couple of showers set up without the deep Southerlies that is needed for good stream activity in the South. However GFS is still intent on it so we will just have to wait and see.

EC teasing us again with next week showing a major system, only problem is that the highs are still dominant and still too far south for any major system to push significantly through..
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Jun 29, 2009 5:01 pm

Just looked at the sat loop and it looks like the NWcloudband is not linking up with the change Mad I would say if I am right that NW vic will only get 5-10 max out of this as once it turns SW we get bugger all usually. Still hope the ranges get craploads. I am working down at Balmoral for this week so I reckon it will be yet another very muddy week ahead.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jun 29, 2009 5:32 pm

Perhaps I'm looking at the wrong models but I don't see a downgrade. GFS was on "drugs" - never was going to happen - and the other models are pretty much holding the line.

EC which has been pretty solid leading up to this event has 3 significant fronts - Wed/Thur/Fri all of which will pack a decent rain band and plenty of showers. The NW airstream is extremely moist - we have 850Ts ahead of the lead system of near 10C (crazy stuff for mid winter) and surface dewpoints into the teens. EC following the last front has has upsliding SW to WSW flow which will set up thick drizzly/rain showers if it comes off. JMA and UK are similar to EC. Worth keeping in mind that LAPS and UK usually under do the shower precipitation (GFS over does this).

Personally I don't like the looks of GFS for rain. It goes too southerly for most of Victoria and will see a major Tasmanian rainshadow if it comes off. It also has the potential to trigger a big Tasman Sea block which will kill our rain chance for a week.

As for rainfall totals - looks to me like widespread 20-40mm in the west - more about the coast and the ranges and a bit less in the far northwest. Good falls right along the divide into the northeast (could well see 50mm+ about the NE ranges). As is typical - the plains west of Melbourne will struggle as will parts of Gippsland.

Am expecting about 50mm in Ferny Creek & Melbourne city about 20mm... of course time will tell Wink Fingers crossed EC is right for next week.

PS also watch for potential record heat tomorrow in parts of NSW. The air mass is hot enough to see temperatures in the 25-30C range (though this will require everything to come together).

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jun 29, 2009 5:53 pm

I was just looking at EC too for the first time tonight and thought exactly the same thing, the high is to our northwest and that is really allowing fronts to ride up in that airflow. Just because there is not the yellows and greens indicating strong upper winds doesn't mean the rainfall is reduced, I think this is somewhat a better outcome because it allows the shower streams to slow down and accumulate better quantities.

Anyhow onto the latest outlook and MLAPS is supporting a reasonable rain event tomorrow with 15mm widespread and most areas bar the far east scoring 10mm. Of course the NE should see 50mm falls, potentially higher, at elevation and tending to snow.

Tomorrow will start out reasonabley windy and cloudy with N winds keeping temps mild to warm for this time of year. A band of rain with isolated thunderstorms will move into the west during the morning and then slowly extend east before dissolving over eastern areas tomorrow night. Showers to follow mainly over the coast and southwest with isolated hail and thunder in the far SW. Becoming cooler with and behind the rainband.

Wednesday will see showers over the southwest extend inland and east to affect all regions though more isolated over the north. Isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and some hail likely with those. Showers tending to rain over the southwest and ranges and possibly south central areas for a period. Snow showers tending to blizzards at times across the alps. Strong to gale force WNW winds about the coast and ranges and becoming colder from the west.

Thursday the showers will become more extensive throughout and tending scattered in the north and to rain at times in the south. Local hail and thunderstorms extending to affect most districts though more isoated in the north. Snow tending to blizzards about the Alpine areas and descending to about 700m during the afternoon. Winds shifting squally SW during the day.

Further showers are likely on Friday, possibly tending to rain periods at first over C and E areas with local hail and thunder. Showers further west with winds tending southerly later. Scattered showers over the northern plains becoming isolated over the northwest during the morning. Blizzards over the alps easing to snow showers and snow line lifting to 900m during the morning. South to southwest winds, gale force over central and eastern areas at first easing from the west.

Saturday, extensive morning frost, locally severe over the inland and isolated showers with hail clearing. Showers in the south, tending to rain over the far east with local hail becoming more isolated through the day though not clearing the west til late. Southerly winds moderating.

Falls have not really deviated from this morning, US was going for something obscene yesterday and it was never going to happen unless we stayed in NW winds and rain for 4 days. I think falls of 25-50mm through the south including Melbourne and up to 100mm over the west coast and catchments, east central and west gippsland.

Very exciting prospects.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:29 pm

Yes I agree GFS was on drugs yesterday but what I'm more focusing on and more interested in the fact it insists in keeping us in a Southerly flow rather than WSW like EC says only reason GFS took off yesterday was cos of the cyclongenis low it had and the positioning of it yesterday otherwise besides that it keeps bringing the high in much further south than EC pushing colder and more unstable air up for us. The Southery or SSW block wont be a problem this side of Melbourne where rain is badly needed this is when we do best with rainfall these scenarios, straight south of us here all we have is King island so it may be a block for the Dandeongs and some of the Eastern suburbs but definetly not this way infact be ideal here if GFS were to occur Smile I also notice GASP is preety much got a similar set up as GFS tonight once again with the high much further south than EC and sending a southerly surge up so still alot of disagreement with the models so still means time for a change better for some and unfortuntly worse for others its how its percieved and where people are located that makes the differance in how we want things to occur. Personally I would rather have 20-30mm of rain here which I would have easily in the GFS and GASP scenarios & 5 days of no weather after that than 5-15mm or 15mm at the most here in the EC scenario which I would think would occur this way for the week and more weather of few mm's here and there 2-3 days later.. Don't mind 5-6 days of dry weather as long as a good inch to an inch and a half falls this way before hand.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:42 pm

Well there is not much to say since everybody has already covered it well, great forecast Karl by the way, I was planning on doing one last night for the state but got home too late, and then had to go out tonight, and then you bet me to it.... Wink Might do one in the morning for Vic.... One thing I can say is: Is everyone ready for a good old spanking? Smile Despite some minor concerns with model outputs (rainfall amounts) I dare say it is going to be a really good system and had my eyes on it the first day it was outputed.... 70mm for my place by Saturday IMO. I will be stoked if more. Hope all the right areas get it too.... Talk some more in the morning...

PS... very windy here now and a windy week to come... I am so glad its school hols.... Wink

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Jun 30, 2009 2:59 am

Good deal of lightning around this morning, things are developing quickly as when I left for work there was very little about. Plenty of lightning on the way in and just had a very heavy shower in Hallam with a few rumbles.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 30, 2009 4:50 am

Fairly heavy shower here this morning and quite a lot of lightning offshore to my south and southeast. A bit to the nw too.

Could be an active day!!!
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Alexia on Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:35 am

Just started to rain here not a breath of wind. The windmill pointing to south east.10c was very foggy until rain started now retreated to base of hills.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:44 am

Crazy weather last night in the Dandenongs with a minimum of 11C at 7pm and warming through the night. Spike to 13.9C at 3am and was just shy of that at 6am. A couple of heavy showers but very past moving - about 0.4mm to add to the 1mm from yesterday. Could be some record highs fall today if we get break in the cloud cover (the main focus of the heat today will be NSW where records could fall by significant margins).

Progs all look great for rain now - and if anything are tending to upgrade to something that sits between the EC and GFS scenario's. Would be disappointed not to see 50mm in the gauge by the weekend in Ferny Creek.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 30, 2009 6:03 am

And with those elevated temps I think we will see some serious gales develop late morning.

Watch for further storms developing nearer the rainband with higher moisture profile there and steeper lapse rates and temp gradient.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Leasy on Tue Jun 30, 2009 6:07 am

Quite warm outside for this time of year, very windy and looking unstable.

Few drops of rain on my way to work, just enough to wet the ground, but looking forward to the rain we may be getting today. Definitely hoping for a storm though. Razz
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  NoRelationToNed on Tue Jun 30, 2009 6:40 am

Amazing looking temp trace for Mildura over the last 24 hrs. What is the record high minimum for Vic in June? http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=76031&list=ob
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Tue Jun 30, 2009 6:50 am

beautiful looking cb north of the city, precip with sun rays shinning though, some outflow cu ahead. Lovely.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 30, 2009 7:06 am

Well some good signs with the main rain taking on a more thundery appearance. As it moves into warmer air I expect this to increase and with upslide, a healthy drink over the inland.

Up to 5mm over the c plains this morning.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 30, 2009 7:15 am

Pressure in SE SA is very low, down to 992 in Adelaide!!!!
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  firestorm on Tue Jun 30, 2009 7:29 am

0.6mm this morning which i didnt expect! The winds really starting to kick in from the North an its warm outside for this time of year! Looking forward to the next few days Cool

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Jun 30, 2009 7:35 am

A very active day today with lots of thunderstorms expected IMO, particularly along the frontal line. As the front/rain move into the warmer unstable uppers we should see a line develop IMO.

Very heavy showers along the SW atm and some rain areas already about the NE with embedded thunder. Expect activity to increase from the west late morning/early afternoon.

Well I am leaving to go out again today, so hopefully I will run in to a thunderstorm. Wink Talk later.

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:04 am

Looks like Murphy' Law has arrived and we are going to enjoy this event without the Doppler, which is a shame. BOM not even giving us a sniff as to when it will be back in operation.

Was greeted with a mild morning with a sprinkle of rain and some strong winds.

Nice blob on SatPic, am hoping it doesn't dive too far South, or King Island will be under water!!

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:12 am

most annoying indeed. My colleagues in Adelaide are also getting understated rain fall and with that impressive front on it's way too, they are feeling my excitement.

I think we will have a cracking avo.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:22 am

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:50 am

Good convection developing ahead of the front and a significant band sitting behind the rain off the coast on the 512km radar near KI.

Wild afternoon coming.
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Leasy on Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:51 am

At the risk of sounding incredibly stupid..... how do you read those dopplars? Is it saying intense winds are happening either side of the radar?? Little confused. Embarassed
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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  norfolk on Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:52 am

NoRelationToNed wrote:Amazing looking temp trace for Mildura over the last 24 hrs. What is the record high minimum for Vic in June? http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=76031&list=ob

apparently warmest overnight in June is a 17.2c at Kyneton on the 3rd of June 1957.....but I don't know if I actually believe this!

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

Post  Pengaz on Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:04 am

Some pretty decent wind gusts through here earlier this morning-my window has a northerly aspect and copped the brunt of it. The radar in Adelaide looks spectacular, that cloud band has blossomed massively overnight. Hopefully it peaks over Victoria in composite with the LWT moving through....

Im looking forward to not having the radar up and runnning today so we cant see how much were missing! Just like the good old days!

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Re: South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

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