Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

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Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:37 pm

Looks like the SE won't have to wait too long for the next burst of wet windy weather. The front currently developing well south of WA is forecast to approach western Victoria on Friday, with a parent low likely to pass south of Tasmania over the weekend into next week. In terms of rain, this system looks likely to tap some significant moisture from the Indian Ocean and have a significant rain band associated with it - it also starts out really mild with 850T possibly getting to near 10C in SW NSW ahead of the first front. Subsequent fronts then bring unstable NW then eventually SW conditions with cooling temperatures.

Rainfall totals a few days out are always questionable, but the current model consensus shows widespread 15-25mm falls, with large areas above 25mm.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Jul 06, 2009 7:29 pm

Was about to start a thread for the same system Cool. Yeah looking OK for some follow up rain out of this but not getting to excited until I see a cloudband developing. Plenty of moisture from the Indian Ocean should see this develop a nice rainband so here's hoping. Models are pretty close to eachother which is always a good sign. Lets just hope they stay that way.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:31 am

Well EC seems to stall the rain through C VIC now into Saturday with the low in the Pacific determining how far east the whole complex moves. Then a westerly belt for next week which looks ok.

US still showing signs of tapping into significant moisture and rain late week in the west and north.

-0.6 here this morning.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:43 am

Progs have wiggled but pattern looks pretty much the same. GFS may well be over doing totals - let's hope its right. EC has more like 10-25mm in the north and 25mm+ in the south/ranges of Vic.

Would be great to get two rain events in a month - doesn't happen often now-a-days!

PS just looked at the EC ensemble. That actually looks rather like GFS for totals, which suggests the potential for an upgrade.

PPS Malleefarmer - you need to get in quicker on new threads.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:47 am

EC was showing substantial moisture in and around 700hPa in the 00z run last night so perhaps there is hope with US. US has been consistent in giving us a reasonable drop.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:04 am

Yeah I am with US at this stage, as you can see it reflected in my forecast, and we could see above 50-60mm of rain across parts of the state with that scenario, and it's good to see consistent model runs at the moment. It will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer to the actual day, perhaps an upgrade from EC and GFS and I might add GFS (US) has been very good this year so far IMO.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Malleefarmer on Tue Jul 07, 2009 12:48 pm

Jake I agree on GFS being a bit more accurate of late but still overcooking totals so thinking 10-25 is about as high as I would go for here unless things change for the better. And Hillbilly, had been thinking about it for a day or so just waiting to see of the thing collapsed. We both must have thought it was right at the same time! Very Happy

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Johnno on Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:36 pm

Well GFS is as bad as the rest of them it has downgraded the rain for Southern Victoria quite alot but still looks good on and North of the divide though

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jul 07, 2009 2:07 pm

Latest US is tricky to read. If your looking at the BSCH page, you may have to break it down day to day to realise that there is a major frontal passage due towards the end of the week run into next week. I think the weekend system will be modest across the state but it has a lot to do with what happens up over the East Coast with the upper disturbance turning into a surface low and how quickly that heads eastwards and how much moisture is lifted from the NW.

Really not surprised by the slight downgrade, it is not the worst rainfall system I have seen at present, this morning and last few days it has been looking favourable. NE VIC and the SW should do best initially as it predominantly NW/W stream as the next LWT develops SW of VIC into early next week. From that point on then we will see better rain periods/showers and storms across the state with snow returning.

I still expect 5-15mm across much of VIC and higher falls about the dividing range, SW and NE slopes, where 30-75mm is possible over the weekend.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:46 pm

Already down to just 4C here with no winds. Minimum temps for the east are too high already!! Down to -2C - -4C in the eastern and northern suburbs.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  mick on Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:52 pm

By crikey it is going to be a cold night, might even have to let the dogs in. Id reckon I might get down to 1, might even go less. Those snow machnes will be going off, be a great time to be skiiing if youre into that.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:20 pm

Interesting that while GFS has had a slight down grade EC has upgraded and has significant rainfall over the weekend into next week (with very wet conditions in southern Victoria mid/late next week). It's still a bit early to read the details, but the significant infeed of Indian Ocean moisture into the Friday/Saturday system suggests the potential for widespread 10-25mm falls. This system doesn't look great at the surface but has a significant northerly jet which will be driving good upslide. It also take quite a while to move through so rain could last for quite a while.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:53 pm

Pretty much an ideal setup for here. If it comes off the way models are saying right now we'd be looking at 25-50mm easy. Melbourne and south of the ranges and most of the rest of the state away from the SW and ranges look more in the range of 10-25mm as David has noted. Potential for not only major runoff in the catchments but also some moderate flooding in the NE with the potential rainfall. EC and GFS both going nuts for mid to late next week with the LWT strengthening and bombing lows in the southern ocean, EC has some intense southerlies, I guess this would mean very wet and cold like the winters of old. Snow galore down to low levels, major flooding etc. but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves, haha! bounce

EDIT: Anyone else mystified by the current BOM forecast? What's even more mystifying is that the forecasters from the BOM are backing it up on radio and in the media (that we will get very little rain this weekend). Anyone can shed some light on this?

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  norfolk on Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:50 pm

probably because we won't get alot of rain. Just a few showers, and maybe not even that out here! I don't see much falling really, unless you live in outer eastern suburbs possibly!

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 08, 2009 5:55 am

Well to me it looks very good this weekend with a slow moving rainband crossing the state. US keeps the best falls across the weekend over the north and ranges but spills some south of the divide as well and EC stalls the band over C VIC as the low in the southern ocean slips south for a period.

Next week looks wild with a deep SSW flow and extensive showers and rain mid week with another system late in ECs run.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Wed Jul 08, 2009 6:53 am

Must admit that I don't anticipate a lot in Melbourne city over the weekend (probably another rain shadow event), but away from Melbourne it does look promising. EC, GASP and JMA are all then wild for next week with unstable SW flow. Would not be surprised to see the city and western burbs only get 2-5mm Sat/Sun. The upslide will likely be weakening on Saturday with the rain as the winds tend increasingly westerly so the best is likely in the north and west.

At this stage am hoping for 10-20mm in Ferny Creek over the weekend, but would not be surprised to see just 5-10mm - then better for us next week. BTW looks like another rainy weekend on the snow fields with 850Ts up to 5C No

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Malleefarmer on Wed Jul 08, 2009 6:57 am

Well I don't mind which models comes off as long as it rains! Frost was not as bad as expected this morning just waiting on this event starting up now! By tonight I reckon forecasts will be accurate enough to get a good idea of what we are likley to get for the weekend. More follow up next week would really get things going and we could see some moderate flooding in areas that are now now and flowing from this weekends system.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 08, 2009 7:11 am

I have friends in Lake Dartmouth (such a beautiful place!!) that said things are really full in the rivers, around the Mitta Mitta moving downstream that more rain could put it into flood. I would think that is inevitable.

I think the weekend won't be too bad, still not much change from the past few days, still expecting 5-15mm through the region here and more up along the divide.

Looking at 10-20mm up there Anthony.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Wed Jul 08, 2009 9:13 am

One of the coldest nights we've had out here in the past 5 years I reckon-got down to -3.9C at 4.30am this morning in a full frost. Blue skies and full sunshine here now but the temps are really struggling to get up, still only around 3C now.

These weather events really aren't favouring Gippsland at all-again this weekend looks like a largely NE and SW VIC event. The lows and fronts are consistently peaking before they enter the state, ensuring that by the time they make it over the ranges this far east, any remaining rain bands are ripped to shreds. We haven't really had a fall over 30mm out of any event this year-backed up by the local Met office yesterday, which has just recorded the lowest 6 month rainfall on record.

If we don't get a big rain/huge snow dump out this way soon theres gonna be a few disappointed dairy farmers and irrigator's out this way come summer, as the Glenmaggie weir is quite dry at the moment and their respective allocations will be reduced to a mere puddle!

End rant. I hope this upcoming event delivers for most regions Neutral

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 08, 2009 9:18 am

Hi Matt,

It has been a little slow out in the east with no real deep lows forming off the Gippsland coast and the big falls being restricted to W Gippsland in W winds.

I think this time next week a significant band of rain should spread into the east of the state and a few days of solid showers to follow as a resolving SSW wind develops near a deepening LWT/Low pressure complex. I can see 20-40mm for most of us by the end of next week.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Malleefarmer on Wed Jul 08, 2009 10:46 am

Well Scot williams is off the wagon. He was saying on ABC that there would olny be light patchy falls over the weekend. Sad Dunno what he based that on but he said that the first rainband would be weakening.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:32 am

Not too concerned about the BoM falling off the rails with it because most models hinting at reasonable rainfall. Even they're own Rain forecast is going for 10-25mm across a wide area this weekend. So more time is needed.

Anyhow it is a wonderful day out there...
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Hinezy on Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:48 pm

Certainly looks alright for western Vic this weekend.. especially if GFS is anything to go by! The last few runs have been going for totals up to 100mm in eastern parts of SA and between 50-75 in western Victoria! Personally tho' the early and mid part of next week looks decent for Victoria as the upper temps look a bit too warm to me to support anything much this weekend. From Sunday they start to cool dramatically!

Certainly looks like it's gonna get windy on Friday tho'!

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 08, 2009 1:35 pm

Yeah I suspect gale warnings for many areas for a good 12-18hr period as the northerly jet sets up over VIC.

LAPS is displaying useful falls. I think I am inclined to believe it too. The parent low towards the southern ocean is expected to stall and cut off entirely from the westerly. The subsequent frontal system and rainband over W VIC and E SA will travel into VIC through Friday/Saturday and as it does - it will slow down. The northerly winds which will be quite squally initially, will ease as the frontal band weakens allowing more organisation within the rainband before the front entirely collapses through Sunday. As the front slides more SSE and perhaps even S the rainband will also shift direction, allowing totals to clock up over a longer period of time as the band takes longer to clear.

I suspect patchy rain in Melbourne initially but it too increase as we get towards Saturday morning. Also running the risk of thunderstorms on the back edge of the rainband into Saturday too.

But as Cameron has stated it really isn't until next week that we see much heavier rain through southern and mountain VIC with hopefully some thunderstorms. Need to christen the Convective Forum with some chase reports Very Happy
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Wed Jul 08, 2009 6:52 pm

Not directly related to this weekends event but we're already down to 1.6C out this way. Brrrrr.

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