Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Mantis on Sun Jul 12, 2009 1:37 pm

Yeah, I noticed that on the radar yesterday. There seemed to be a hole over most of Melbourne, weird.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  typhoon29 on Sun Jul 12, 2009 1:58 pm

has turned black here. Eerie calm. I'd say shower perhaps storm imminent.

affraid tornado reported in News at a footy game in SA!

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25768475-5005961,00.html
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:18 pm

Interesting read Typhoon. As I said earlier things are real good for upper rotation (wind shear) so I guess that was the result. I would watch out across southern Vic this afternoon and evening when we could see storms as well.

Power Storm wrote:The Western, Central and W & S Gippsland districts could actually see some isolated thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening with a destabalizing environment with a fair bit of cold air aloft. Looking at the wind shear, it actually seems and looks like it will be okay today and could even be an indication for persistent supercell thunderstorms if things get going, and of course that could lead to large hail and damaging winds. LI values are also in the negative range across the south today and there is also low CAPE. Despite the low CAPE other indicators are good. As those showers develop this afternoon/evening watch out for thunderstorms as well. It could be a very good day. I will get the BoM's thoughts out soon...

Above, that is what I said earlier today, and now here is the BoM's thoughts... sorry it took so long... Wink

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 9:07 am Sunday, 12 July 2009,
Valid until midnight on Sunday, 12 July 2009.

Cold air advection aloft may allow for sufficient destabilisation across the southern parts of the State for isolated thunderstorms to develop during today. Coastal areas in the west, central, and the southwest coastal region of Gippsland are the most likely to be affected. Thunderstorms are most likely during the afternoon or early evening. Although dewpoints and heating will be modest contributing to a low CAPE environment, wind shear is considerable, and may support updraft rotation and supercell structures with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds with any persistent thunderstorms that do develop.


Edit: I would watch that area of precipitation i nthe southwest ATM too, it could spark out some lightning and hail.


Last edited by Power Storm on Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:20 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:20 pm

Johnno wrote:Won't rain in the Western or NW suburbs today mark my words its developing over the NW ranges then once again dries out over Melbourne before developing again over the Mornington Penisula and East of Melbourne same old story, I'm sticking to my gut.

Totally agree Johnno, we have had 2mm here since Friday. Same old story. By the time any potential rain gets here it either dries out or disappears elsewhere. Very frustrating indeed. The radar is showing something around Ballan, Daylesford etc.. up around the hills but it won't get here.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:27 pm

Some vigorous showers developing across Melbourne now -though currently most in the NE and SE burbs. Right on the edge here - just north of here ATM. Very big drops falling outside - suggests some hail and the odd rumble of thunder is a chance.

A second band is trying to form back through the western burbs - next couple of radar frames will tells us a lot.

BTW 14mm at Mt Hope from the storm that passed just near Ballarat.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:33 pm

Dark as guts now, gusty wind and showery. Looks like a very small cell has just popped up over the other side of the mountain so it could get interesting.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  James on Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:45 pm

radar says its raining heavy here, but the ground is dry and nothing happening, just dark

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:48 pm

It's been raining solidly here for the last half hour or so with some patches of fairly heavy rain in amongst it.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  mick on Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:56 pm

Not much to report here, some rain over night and a few sindy spots today. Some great totals from the n/w.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  norfolk on Sun Jul 12, 2009 3:03 pm

I won't even bother trying to wish for rain anymore!

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  dagget on Sun Jul 12, 2009 3:06 pm

You were right about interesting droughtbreaker,

Just had a major hail dumping here and very heavy rain, looks like 8mm in about 10 mins and looks like more is coming could feel the cold air coming with that one as I was outside at the time Shocked

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Johnno on Sun Jul 12, 2009 4:36 pm

Well another day gone preety much and another non rain day here the concrete didn't even get wet all the showers are either stuck to the ranges like a glove or East of Melbourne no suprised there not to me anyway. Another dud of a day around this area preety much as I expected and expect nothing tonight either. I'm sure one day it will remember how to rain this part of town.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  dagget on Sun Jul 12, 2009 4:51 pm

More rain here now, getting to be like real winter again.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jul 12, 2009 5:05 pm

26mm here for the weekend. Finally getting regular rainfall here after a shocking run for most of the year until now. Should start to see some more vigorous systems without constant NW flow as we get later into winter. When that happens the whole state should do alright.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jul 12, 2009 5:45 pm

Fantastic results across some parts of the state, though John and guys in W burbs of Melbourne, feel free to pop down here and grab a few tanks of water as some of ours are over-flowing nearly. You guys really need as much rain as possible.

Good to see bands of showers across the northeast of the state with embedded thunder. We have had persistent showers this afternoon/evening. No thunder/lightning though. Still the risk for storms tonight.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Sun Jul 12, 2009 6:23 pm

We certainly do need that rain. It's like we live in a totally different climate here. This is how bad it is around here. According to Elders, Melbourne has had a rainfall total to date of 141.6mm for the year. Now that is a pretty bad figure on it's own. Caroline Springs has only had 111mm!

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Mantis on Sun Jul 12, 2009 7:50 pm

Hey guys, a lot of areas in the state are getting good rains, and its the best start to the cropping season for years, and thats a lot of years.
The suburbs of Melb need rain for what, gardens, photo ops, etc.
Its a lot like me in Horsham, where the rain is good to fill tanks and water our gardens. The real rain we all want is up in the catchments and on our food producing plains
Rant over

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  DC449 on Sun Jul 12, 2009 7:56 pm

What is with the rain dieing down once it gets to the bay?
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  norfolk on Sun Jul 12, 2009 8:16 pm

Mantis wrote:Hey guys, a lot of areas in the state are getting good rains, and its the best start to the cropping season for years, and thats a lot of years.
The suburbs of Melb need rain for what, gardens, photo ops, etc.
Its a lot like me in Horsham, where the rain is good to fill tanks and water our gardens. The real rain we all want is up in the catchments and on our food producing plains
Rant over


Do the sheep, horses, cattle, fruit and vegetables, in places like Rockbank, Werribee, Keilor, Sydenham, not matter because they happen to be grazing in and growing in city limits? Not all who live in the western Suburbs of Melbourne, city dwellers. There are large amounts of farms, and I know they are suffering amazingly. So yes it's great if catchments get rain, it's great that country farmers have their tanks full, but what about city farmers? There are many out this way!

So I apologise that as a city dweller I moan that I don' get rain, I just think about everyone out this way, the farmers as well.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jul 12, 2009 8:30 pm

The market gardeners along the Maribyrnong at Keilor are really struggling atm because they don't have the same access to water that they once did. They used to be allocated large amounts of water from the Maribyrnong catchment but it has been greatly restricted now due to water storage levels dropping in the catchment, so that's really bad news for them. A lot of the vegetables produced here are sold in the supermarkets so vegetable prices will go up across the state as a result of this water shortage.

Also gardens are very important to a lot of people and there is nothing more depressing than watching them die, people don't like to live in a barren dusty landscape, sure it has always been pretty dry in the western suburbs of Melbourne and the surrounding area but not so dry that there is hardly even any grass, it still used to green up in winter most years before this terrible drought period began. With gardens under increasing stress more water needs to be used to keep them alive, even drought hardy gardens will struggle on 110mm for the year to the middle of July. As a result Melbourne's dam levels drop even further. A huge amount of development is set for the western suburbs in the near future and all this will achieve with the extreme dry climate there is deplete Melbourne's dams even faster.

So definitely many reasons for western suburbs people and Victorians in general to be disappointed at the lack of rain in this region. Perhaps the number one reason is weather enthusiasts living in this area are frustrated because they have no weather to report or observe unless they get in their cars and drive, sometimes long distances, just to see rain. Not everyone can just get out and move to a wetter part of the state, people have good reasons for living where they do.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Johnno on Sun Jul 12, 2009 9:17 pm

Well put Andrew and Tony.

We get told off regularly here in the city for not understanding how bad it is up in the country and symphasise with it but as soon as a Melbourian talks about how bad it is here we get shot down for it.

I think you should do your homework before you start shooting your mouth off Mantis you don't have to live 100ks+ away from Melbourne to be a farmer there are many farmers living between Geelong and Melbourne only 20-30ks west of Melbourne who need as rain just as bad as in Horsham or any other country town and like yourself and other country farmers it is preety much their livelyhood. Also consider this 25% of Victorias population lives in the Nortthern and Western suburbs of Melbourne don't you think by getting rain this way it will reduce pressure on water meaning less consumption on the catchments some people don't think about that you need to see the wider picture and understand how things work before you turn this into a City vs Country thing. Also people like me also depend on the weather heavily cos of the business I am in it made not be farming but its gardening business I also need rain to make a living otherwise you put cold and dry together and you get almost nothing growing hence very little to no work hence no money hence = troubling times & also people are just plain interested in the weather like Andrew said so there are alot of reasons why we need rain down here just as much as anyone else every part of the state is equally important.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Jul 12, 2009 9:56 pm

Play nice please.... Worthy discussion though.

Not much locally today but better opp tomorrow.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  lightnin on Sun Jul 12, 2009 10:04 pm

Looks like Horsham has done ok again, 32 mm over 3 days, Longernong 27 mm, Charlton 29 mm, Stawell 44 mm..

Down this way, Shelford 2 mm, Cressy 3 mm, Balliang 3 mm, Bannockburn 5 mm...

Not exactly wet here!!! Trying to stop dust coming in the doors and windows with all the wind!

When will it ever rain properly? 113 mm year to date.

Hey Mantis.. as a former Wimmera farmer I am happy to see you getting some rain... however spare a thought for those in the area to the w-sw of Melbourne - Bannockburn, Lara, Little River, Balliang, Melton, Werribee region who have had 4 years in a row now of around 200 mm annual rainfall, thats 3 possibly 4 failed crops - yes Barley, Wheat Canola, Peas in this area. These aren't western district farmers either..

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Sun Jul 12, 2009 10:15 pm

Dunno if Mantis deserved that spray there Johno-Im sure he knows his fair share about weather and how it influences Victoria; let alone his own area; and what it is truly like to do it 'tough' while the chips are down and his towns water supply in the Grampians hovers in single figures for the best part of the year-but I tend to agree with both arguments here. I know the frustration is beyond belief now and there's not a lot more I can say except that it will come eventually. However, if all the rain was falling in the city more often than anywhere else, it is absolutely useless to us in the long term, besides the benefits for gardens and in your case the Landscaping industry. At the end of the day, obviously the supply of drinking water is more important to us human beings as opposed to small areas of farming land in the Outer Western Suburbs consistently missing out on rain-hence why I would rather see any rain that falls in the state as close to any catchments as possible, or in a way which affects large agricultural areas that contribute significantly to our economy (I also include the previously mentioned farming areas close to the Metro area as well here).

I know the extent of farming and produce occurring out west of Werribee is significant, I studied the affects of excessive groundwater drawdowns in the area that was used to supplement for lack of surface water provided by rain just last semester. It has always been a drier part of the state relative to the majority, one, due to the topography in the surrounding area providing rain shadows; and two, the geology of the area is mainly Basalt and is not as receptive to soil moisture as other farming regions around Melbourne, hence the point I made about the groundwater extraction regime they had in operation during the 90's. This is only one side of the story but it is reflective of the climate in the western suburbs.

The harsh reality of this is this may be the climate we have to adapt to from now on. I am and always will be a firm believer that all weather is cyclic in the longer term; regions have their wet periods and there dry periods-the perception may be a little more exaggerated at the moment due to the longetivity of this current dry, as we reference and compare current trends to the weather that has occurred in previous eras of our life times. Things may start returning to a more neutral cycle, or the dry may continue for longer. Its a scary thought, but we cant really do too much more than accept it.

I know this is particularly tough for small businesses and those who work in the industry and with time the emotions start to get the better of those involved-but we have absolutely no control over our weather (unless we are to shift this debate to Global warming/climate change). I for one also really hope that there is a more even distribution of rainfall with the coming systems; and that it is a little more predictable for those who depend on the weather for their livelihood.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:19 am

When Mantis mentioned LOTS of years, Im tipping that LOTS actually means 10 & 15 years. being an ex Horsham girl and visiting my parents there occasionaly, dry is dry. I cant see how they pump water out of their dams as they must be down to mud. Good to see them have some rain, its pitty that everyone didnt get it. We had similar here while back where you would see it coming and then we would just miss out, seeing it added to the frustration.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

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