Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  typhoon29 on Fri Jul 10, 2009 4:42 pm

a cold windy and very overcast with threatening skies all day no precipitation as yet although a few spits have begun. Yes the forecast looks good considering. The Sat pic looks good too. Wouldn't be surprised if it rains all weekend.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Jul 10, 2009 5:03 pm

It is looking good to me. I think the rain is only starting to pick up over SA now and should build up over VIC overnight along the divide before spreading to the plains north and south. Looking forward to about 5-10mm tomorrow but wouldn't be surprised if we walked away with 15-20mm.

Chance of a few thunderstorms tomorrow on the back edge.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Fri Jul 10, 2009 5:36 pm

Very encouraging to see the falls clocking up nicely through SA. Up to 15.6mm at Robe, 13 at Cape Jaffa, and 10.4mm at Keith. Suggests good falls for the west are fast moving in.

The models are all in pretty solid agreement for 5-20mm for places apart for Gippsland into Saturday morning. Not surprisingly the best is in the west - but curiously also looks good for south central areas where the upslide gets a bit of a kick.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:24 pm

Mostly virga-ish spitty rain so far but the winds is pretty strong. Looks like a decent shower went to our N but more coming in later. Hopefully some more decent rain by midnight.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:19 am

First area of rain now clearing into the east but the next burst now coming into the west. Curious that east central has done rather better last night (as picked by the EC - Warbuton with 18mm is the top score, with Cardinia and Ferny Creek 10mm in the top 10 Smile ) -obviously some minor kick in the dynamics. 10mm up here (Dunns Hill has an under read problem) and a wild night with squally north winds. Very mild also for us with the temperature rising to 11.5C at 1am Shocked

Now looking like a (mild for winter) wet and windy day - though with very high wind chills (Dunns Hill apparent temperature is currently -3C). LAPS and EC both have widespread 5-15mm today which seems like a reasonable bet... hopefully some makes it into the city and northern burbs which got seriously dudded last night.

Looks like this wet pattern sticks with us all week - showers and winds eventually going SW by Wednesday.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Rivergirl on Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:39 am

Yes living near the north face of the hills in Ferny Creek the wind blowing through the huge trees that surround us, sounds like a freight train. We lost power for a while early this morning.

I read this week in our local paper that the CFA firey that was in the Upper Ferntree Gully fire tanker in the Upwey/Belgrave fires that was completely gutted by fire and then had a big tree fall on his house in Sassafras in March, had another tree fall on his bungalow next to the house this week. His furniture was stored in there while his house was still being fixed. How unlucky can you get.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  lightnin on Sat Jul 11, 2009 8:21 am

Well a lovely 4.8 mm here last night, it sounded great on the roof, not too heavy, just nice.... the radar is showing some heavier stuff approaching Ballarat, just hoping there is something left in it by the time it gets here.

The wind hasn't really let up, whats the predictions for rain for this area for today?

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Sat Jul 11, 2009 8:36 am

Well a very windy night with persistent light to moderate rainfall, though we were caught mostly in the lighter stuff this time, with about 7mm to 9am this morning. That's some good follow up for where I am, but good to see further good falls elsewhere, particularly around east central parts.

For today expect to see patchy rain across the northern half of the state gradually contract to the east during the day with the activity easing over the western and central areas this afternoon, before another burst of showers in the southwest this afternoon with the front sliding past, and we could also see some isolated thunderstorms over the southwest this afternoon and evening if everything plays out right. It would be good to get another thunderstorm in a matter of a week and a few days..... Wink

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:02 am

Moderate rain falling at the moment, hopefully it will set in, it doesn't look like we had much overnight judging by the ground being completely dry this morning although the BOM rainfall readings suggest we had at least a couple, haven't checked yet.

Not sure why the radar is returning such high intensity echoes when the rain is moderate at best and eases back to drizzle at times, can't be bright banding surely, it's a mild airmass. Wind has been really gusting, very strong at times but only gusts not sustained.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Mosaic on Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:14 am

Managed 6 mm overnight, more than expectations.

Fierce wind, beginning to look threatening to the north west.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  norfolk on Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:19 am

Radar shows a great rain shadow, with north of the ranges being deluged with rain!

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  AmaroK on Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:21 am

Well i was all over the town last night and saw consistent, but not overly note worthy falls in hawthorn rowville and frankston. Winds seem to be a lot stronger than any of my local AWS are reporting at the moment, Lovely haunting sound as it blows around the house. Lost power twice so far today, and even saw an SES truck moving around my area this morning. Been dry here for at least the last hour,
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  firestorm on Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:22 am

10.4mm overnight nothing this morning yet very happy Smile

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  NoRelationToNed on Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:24 am

We've had 4 mm of slow patchy light rain since last night. In a bit of a gap now with a high overcast base but still a few drops falling. Looks to be more coming down from the NW. Satpics look nice, a double-whammy low in the bight not moving east too quickly which should pull more moisture our way before it eventually passes. OUr YTD rainfall is now over 105 mm which doesn't sound much but everything is very green and lush around here, more so the further west you head. No complaints up here for the season so far.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Luken on Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:40 am

6mm here overnight as well, and looks to be closing in now from the NW. Be nice to score another 10mm today.

Karl what is your YTD rainfall? I don't have figures for here, but you are close enough to me that we should be simular.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  AmaroK on Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:50 am

Light rains have arrived on my doorstep as that first light band on the radar moves south east of the city. Fairly sporadic not much in it. Gusts seem to have died down a tiny bit in the last 10 minutes, but i wont speak too soon.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:07 am

Hi all, 1mm here overnight. That wind outside is very gusty indeed. About to drive up to Kilmore to see my parents so might actually get to experience some rain. Radar looks good up that way. Nothing here in the Western Suburb drought belt.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  typhoon29 on Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:13 am

very very very windy out horizontal rain my ears are full of water. Not very heavy rain at all. Was thinking of going to the footy today, nah don't think so.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  SC on Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:15 am

9mm here overnight. Winds gusting around 30-40k with a max of 59km/h.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:28 am

A welcome 4.5mm here in Sale so far in mostly light intermittent rain, which is about 450 times better than what i was expecting out this way. Still raining lightly atm with heavy cloud cover.

After a largely calm morning, the wind has progressed to a breeze from the NW. For once, we seem to be in a slightly more favourable position for rain at the moment stuck in the NW stream. Hoping for another 5mm by days end.

Great to see some handy 5-10mm falls right across VIC.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Johnno on Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:41 am

double post


Last edited by Johnno on Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:48 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Johnno on Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:42 am

hillybilly wrote:Very encouraging to see the falls clocking up nicely through SA. Up to 15.6mm at Robe, 13 at Cape Jaffa, and 10.4mm at Keith. Suggests good falls for the west are fast moving in.

The models are all in pretty solid agreement for 5-20mm for places apart for Gippsland into Saturday morning. Not surprisingly the best is in the west - but curiously also looks good for south central areas where the upslide gets a bit of a kick.

Don't forget the North Western suburbs of Melbourne 1mm here with this system I may as well be in Gippsland Rolling Eyes I'm certaintly not suprised by this knew there would be a massive rainshadow out this way despite what these models suggested.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:47 am

Interesting watching the Melbourne radar atm-Im not sure what to make of it in terms of meaningful rainfall and whats on the way for us. A very clearly defined ridiculous rain hole anyway-very obvious watching rain echoes entering from the NW of the frame, before disappearing then reappearing to the SE of the city and spreading into Western Gippsland. Must be torture for you folk in the western suburbs, I really hope things start to turn around soon.

Hoping those gaps keep filling in for us out this way though.... Still, the showers keep on pumping through the Western Districts, so I suspect things wont really clear up til later this evening at the earliest.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Mantis on Sat Jul 11, 2009 11:10 am

10mm overnight here and another 1mm so far today. Not drought breaking but nice

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Sat Jul 11, 2009 11:55 am

I still think isolated thunderstorms are possible about the southwest this afternoon/evening. The BoM have released a very interesting Thunderstorm Chart too indicating the possibility for supercelluar development. I will have the chart up shortly.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

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