Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Sat Jul 11, 2009 11:57 am

As promised, here are the thunderstorm charts from the Bureau of Meteorology. Very interesting. Wink

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 10:26 am Saturday, 11 July 2009,
Valid until midnight on Saturday, 11 July 2009.

Cold air advection aloft over southwestern Victoria will lead to a destabilisation of the atmosphere near the southwest coast. Wind shear profiles would be supportive of organised or rotating updrafts and may support supercell formation should storms develop with attendant wind damage and large hail threat, however modest dewpoints and low level forcing preclude issuing a severe likely area. It should be noted that tight pressure gradient over Victoria is likely to produce damaging wind gusts in many areas regardless of thunderstorm formation - and a severe weather warning is current for western, central and mountain regions of the State. There is a very slight risk of thunderstorms over northwestern Victoria until midday.


Last edited by Power Storm on Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Sat Jul 11, 2009 11:59 am

Winds have eased back to Calm here and the rain has really increased locally around here. Will check the guage once its eased a bit but I reckon another 2mm or so in the past hour (up to 6-7mm now hopefully). Radar supports this with some good echo returns on the Gippsland plains.

Cant remember the last time we had a full day of rain out this way. Its great stuff.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:18 pm

Not wanting to be a downer but I have to call it as I see it and today is a shocker of a day. Gusty winds, cold 8C, wind chill must be terrible but I'm not game to go outside, and most crucially, little in the way of worthwhile rain. It has been just very patchy light stuff here today with a few very brief heavier bits in between. 6mm all up, probably split about 50/50 between overnight and today. If it is going to be one of these sort of days you would at least like to see some solid worthwhile rain with it but I'm afraid it is another fizzer for here unless we see something decent develop later on. Melbourne has been completely dudded yet again. Western suburbs people would be considering starting a riot, I was sure there would be at least 5mm there today but next to nothing again.

Would like to know what happened to the 'dynamics' of this system which were supposed to be excellent for this system over central VIC. I assume the models were all in agreement for this as they all progged good rain statewide. In the end it is all orographic effects yet again with the coastal areas around Gippsland doing alright as well. If we were to have good dynamics you would expect the system to be more active and the rain more widespread with a less devastating rain shadow effect.

Most of us are left disappointed yet again. Crying or Very sad

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  damiantheomen on Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:34 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:Most of us are left disappointed yet again. Crying or Very sad

Unless you are the crazy sailboarder that overtook me as i drove along beaconsfeild pde earlier - he was in the water not in a car if you where wondering...... Razz
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:49 pm

Absolutely nothing to complain about out this way! Up to 9.5mm since early this morning with around ~5mm in the past 2 hours. Consistent steady rain still falling although I reckon those strong Northwesterlies are eating into the back edge of this rain band, suspecting a bit of a clearing pattern emerging West of Baw Baw now. Still very calm here.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Madmel on Sat Jul 11, 2009 1:06 pm

LOL starting a riot huh? Twisted Evil Got a little bit of rain last night but havent been gain enough to brave the gale winds to see how much. Been a pretty wild windy day on the old "Windy Plains" here.

I dont have much faith in getting anymore rain out of this system due to the wind.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  NoRelationToNed on Sat Jul 11, 2009 1:34 pm

Glorious soaking rain continuing up in the north - anyone over the divide from you droughtbreaker doesn't share your negativity, this is fabulous for dryland crops and Murray Darling Basin catchments. Now over 8 mm so far and raining very steadily indeed.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Sat Jul 11, 2009 1:47 pm

Another 4mm here since the last post-we're up to 13.5mm since early this morning, turning into a great drop for here.

Sky is beginning to lighten up slightly to the W so I reckon things will clear soon. Steady rain continuing here with a bit of a light breeze blowing now. Hoping to crack 15mm at least.....

Doesnt look like too much left for us once this lot clears up-may be able to fluke another shower from the band currently over North Central Victoria later today.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Luken on Sat Jul 11, 2009 2:11 pm

Well next to nothing as I feared originally here today. Maybe 1/2mm since 9am. 6mm total. Looked like it was going to set in for a couple of hours earlier, but then the rain shadow from the Macedon ranges really kicked in as the wind picked up. Gloomy and windy and generally yuck!

The last couple of frames on the radar look a little better, the back edge might give us a couple of mm which really is all we need here. Just wish a bit more would fall around the Thompson.
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follow up rain (Low & Fronts)

Post  snowshow on Sat Jul 11, 2009 2:46 pm

Has been raining of and on since 0200 this morning, I havent been to the gauge yet, but if the puddle of water that has collected in my car from the window being left open is any indication its been a far bit Surprised Very cold here atm 8.C Very typical Mirboo North winter weather
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jul 11, 2009 2:47 pm

Was pleased with the 10mm overnight... but only a blowy 0.2mm today. Really must be a feral day north of the divide with all that rain blowing horizontal. Some great falls developing now - up to 40mm at Mt William for the event, 17mm at Stawell (since 9am), and 13mm and Redesdale and Bendigo. Great for soaking in and hopefully a bit of runoff.

Should see the rain push over the divide in the next hour or two but it looks like the north/northwest burbs are setting up for a big rainshadow event (sorry Johnno - if your up here feel free to fill up a bucket from my tanks). Would expect lee waves to form out through the east very soon which should help totals along in the eastern/southeast suburbs.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Johnno on Sat Jul 11, 2009 2:59 pm

Not much you or anyone else can do about it DJ but will keep it in mind Wink

Another missed oppurtunity out this way 1 out of a long line list

I Might fluke a few mm's Tuesday & Wednesday as winds go onshore perhaps.


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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Madmel on Sat Jul 11, 2009 3:21 pm

Starting to get really dark now apart from the sun going down, but low cloud starting to pop through so may be in for a sprinkle or two

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Pengaz on Sat Jul 11, 2009 3:36 pm

We managed just under 15mm from the rain today-the wind has strengthened a fair bit now and the rain has cleared pretty quickly. One of the best totals for the past few months out this way.

Yeah, quite a large mass of rain on the N side of the ranges. Cant remember seeing the orographic effects of the dividing ranges so pronounced in an event before.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  typhoon29 on Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:13 pm

solid rain for the past hour or so, wind has dropped. Before rain tipped out 8mm of rain.
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:24 pm

That locally heavy rain over central Victoria at the moment should contract eastwards overnight, as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop over the southwest. I am hopeing for a thunderstorm tonight, or at least being able to see them south of me near the coast.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  dagget on Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:39 pm

Plenty of rain for us here has hardly stopped. Heavy rain now and only 7 degrees.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:50 pm

Yes Dagget, finally the rain has increased and pushed over the ranges. Was looking like a real fizzer until recently. I was unaware that the bulk of the rain was set for this evening so it has surprised me a bit. All indications were for the best of it to fall overnight and during the day. Tomorrow also looking just a little bit promising IMO, with showers and the odd thunderstorm likely. Would love to sneak in a thunderstorm here but it is looking more likely south of the ranges, Melbourne in with a shot tomorrow. We had 7mm just before the more solid stuff set in, might see another 10mm on top of that the way things are going, at least 5mm anyway you would think and that would be closer to model estimates.

A chance for some rain in the western suburbs in the next few hours. Seriously you deserve to get at least 5mm, ridiculous how the rain keeps missing completely there .

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  dagget on Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:53 pm

This rain was certainly a surprise, was away in SE NSW last couple of days and only drove back yesterday. Glad I did not wait until today. Wonder how much colder this will get, love to see more than just rain here.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:01 pm

Yeah, 7C here as well, reasonably mild airmass atm (if you can call 7C mild), very blustery so bad wind chill. Tomorrow some colder air pushes in but not enough to drop snow levels to the magical 1000m mark (cold enough to snow at the top of Mount Macedon). The closer we get to spring the more intense cold fronts should get and the better the chance of really cold air getting dragged up from way south, so plenty of time still for snow down to low levels. Wink

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Madmel on Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:27 pm

Finally looked at the rain gauge. 5.5mm overnight. Seems the Western Plains Forcefield is working LOL. No rain yet..just loads of wind Sleep

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Dane on Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:37 pm

7.2mm's here overnight and another 1.5mm's during the day, current rain band is breaking up with some rain moving away to the south and the other band too far North, so don't think we will get much from that.

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  dagget on Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:39 pm

Will just have to wait a bit, nice to see the rain though had been wonering where the real winter was this year. Very Happy

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  Raindrops on Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:42 pm

6.5mm of rain overnight...happy with that as we did reasonably well last time. Only 2mm over the day..drops here and there, so was surprised with that total! Wind has picked up again after a lull about 4pm.
Bring on the rain to the western Suburbs!!

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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Post  damiantheomen on Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:30 pm

wind is still blowing the trees around like ragdolls here, noticed a slight bit of drizzle earlier but going by the radar loop there seems to be a gap in the radar .... or we have engaged the rain barrier
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Re: Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

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