Monthly Weather Obs.

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Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:33 am

Bit late but the summary for Ferny Creek (400m).

June 2009

Mean Max 11.0 (about +2)
High Max 14.7C, Low Max 5.6C
Mean Min 7.0C (about +1)
High Min 11.0C, Low Min 2.2C
Rainfall 54.7mm (-41.2mm on average)
21 Raindays
9 Fog days
2 Thunder days
4 Hail days
1 Snow day

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  Dane on Fri Jul 31, 2009 6:10 pm

Brief Summary for Cranbourne For July 2009
Ave Max 14.1c (about + 1c)
Ave Min 7.2c (about +1.5c)
Rainfall 85.2mm's (ave 77mm's)
Raindays 16
Highest Wind gust 34 knots on the 1st

Wettest Month this Year Very Happy

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  hillybilly on Fri Jul 31, 2009 6:20 pm

July 2009 in Ferny Creek (400m)

Mean Max 10.2 (about +1)
High Max 15.0C, Low Max 7.8C
Mean Min 6.3C (about +1)
High Min 11.2C, Low Min 2.8C
Rainfall 126.5mm (+12.1mm on average Very Happy)
21 Raindays
9 Fog days
0 Thunder days
2 Hail days
0 Snow day

Wettest Month this Year
- same in Ferny Creek. YTD is also slightly more healthy now at ~430mm. Now need a WET August.

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Jul 31, 2009 9:55 pm

Well, 80.7mm here recording to 9am like everyone else does but given that I record rainfall in the evenings I'll only actually write in 68.6mm which adds 12.1mm on to June's total.

A ridiculous 240mm for the year. Just 40mm to go now to reach Alice Springs average annual total. Rolling Eyes

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  Johnno on Sat Aug 01, 2009 5:31 am

Well I still need another 140mm then to get that in that case Droughtbreaker cos I'm still only on 144mm for the year here! Even though July was abit better here it was still below average with 33mm below the 46mm average.

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Aug 01, 2009 6:06 am

A ridiculous 240mm for the year. Just 40mm to go now to reach Alice Springs average annual total.

Things up here in the Dandenongs actually don't look too bad as the poor YTD largely reflects the fact that it didn't rain at all (well 18mm which is about 110mm less than average in Jan/Feb - even that is a little deceptive as we had 300mm in 6 weeks in Nov/Dec last year). Since then it hasn't been great, but it hasn't been to bad overall - getting about 90mm a month when we should be getting about 105mm. It looks like a wet start to August for us - EC suggest we could well be on 30-50mm by the end of the next week.

A few dry weeks and it will turn very quickly for us, but a few wet ones and it we will go into spring in OK shape (but clearly having a hang over of the 13 year drought).

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  hillybilly on Fri Aug 07, 2009 8:16 pm

Can report a monthly total of (about) 100mm in Sandy Point for July.

YTD total is on a reasonably healthy 430mm (would guess that's ~100mm below average).

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  Johnno on Tue Sep 01, 2009 3:49 pm

AUSTRALIA just sweated through its hottest August on record.


But it's not climate change, it's just hot.

The Bureau of Meteorology says August was almost 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal across the country.

The bureau boffins described it as "most extraordinary" as temperatures crept above 38 degrees in some areas.

And winter as a whole came within a whisker of being the warmest of record - it was just 0.01 of a degree cooler than the record-holder, 1996.

Blair Trewin, a climate scientist with the bureau, said the warm weather was caused by a lack of large frontal systems sweeping up from the southern oceans, which would have brought cool air.

Instead, persistent high pressure systems hung about the subtropics.

Dr Trewin said the heatwaves were caused more by natural variability than by climate change.

Climate change had pushed up temperatures by about 0.8 of a degree over the past century but August came in at more than two degrees above average.

"The set-up we had this month would have given us an extremely warm month whether it happened 100 years ago or it happened now," Dr Trewin said.

"There's a lot of natural variability but you've got a climate change signal on top of that."

And there's no end in sight to the warm weather - the Bureau is forecasting a hot, dry spring.

That's because of warm conditions in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

from:news.com


Interesting Blair isn't really putting this down to Climate change.. Share the same view DJ? Be interesting to see if you disagree to what Blair thinks.
I think I asked you a month or so ago you think the warmer than normal ssts across NW and north of Australia is contributing to this especially moreso during an El nino which the ssts are normally cooler than normal North of Australia.

Also the fact we haven't had any strong SW to Southerly surges changes over SE and eastern Australia hasn't helped to "flush" out that warm air so we can partly thank these persistant Westerlies/NW winds for this record that on top of the Warm ssts in tropical Australia + El Nino and lack of cloud through the Continent as well would all be part of it

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:46 pm

The major factor has been the lack of cold outbreaks that, in a normal year, regularly penetrate well inland in the winter and spring months and 'flush out' built up heat from the interior. This has been directly due to an almost exclusive dominance of W/NW winds Even in late winter, in extraordinary circumstances like this year, heat can build up to the point that places on the NE coast of NSW and QLD can get high 30C temperatures when that air is dragged eastwards. Luckily for us it was dragged eastwards and not southeast. (I think the same factor contributed to the all time record temps in Jan and Feb as well down here Question )

The problem therefore is not necessarily 100% global warming but may be due to more indirect causes linked to global warming that lead to long term climate change. Apparently 1977 saw a very similar pattern with a similar lack of cold outbreaks and prolonged very mild weather through much of the east.

The patterns will have to break eventually and we may go back into a blocking pattern with strong highs or we will start to get significant cold outbreaks through Spring with more southerlies. One thing for sure it can't stay like this forever. Wink

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  hillybilly on Fri Sep 04, 2009 5:54 pm

And August from Ferny Creek

Mean Max 12.0 (about +2)
High Max 14.9C, Low Max 9.0C
Mean Min 7.6C (about +2)
High Min 11.7C, Low Min 3.3C
Rainfall 91.6mm (+39.9mm Sad )
27 Raindays
7 Fog days
6 Thunder days
25Hail days
0 Snow day

Overall a lot of wet days with very little to show for it! An incredible number of thunderstorms days (I can't recall ever seeing anything like 6 thunder days in a month). Also the first August up here without a snowfall....

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  hillybilly on Fri Sep 04, 2009 5:58 pm

The patterns will have to break eventually and we may go back into a blocking pattern with strong highs or we will start to get significant cold outbreaks through Spring with more southerlies. One thing for sure it can't stay like this forever.

Our current model based guidance suggests exceptional "heat" is likely to continue for the next 3 months with temperature anomalies of +1 to +2 anticipated in most inland areas - it is still likely to be warm but not that warm in Vic.

BTW looks like it could turn very dry come the second half of September - the typical pattern of most El Nino events is that it turns very dry in southeast OZ sometime during winter/spring. The question is does that switch happen early or late... (am personally hoping it is late).

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Sep 04, 2009 9:54 pm

104.9mm here for August.

Still warm along the east coast of AUS which is a bit unusual given we have a firm El Nino pattern atm in terms of SST anomalies in the Pacific.
I'm watching what's happening in the Indian Ocean. Encouraging seeing cool SST anomalies off the horn of Africa and still a plume of warm anomalies stretching roughly from India to the NW coast of Aus. Isn't it the opinion now that the IOD influences our weather down here 1st and foremost and El Nino secondary? (El Nino more so east coast and top end). Not saying El Nino doesn't cause drought here, it would be crazy to say that (of course we know it can), but if we can get a -ve IOD and continue that phase on into summer I don't think it looks too bad for us.

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  Dane on Sat Sep 05, 2009 6:03 am

August here was warmer than normal about 1.5c above average and rainfall was slightly above average. 76mm's (ave 72mm's) Just 2 thunderdays 1 day of hail and one day of fog. Rain fell on 18 days. Very windy month had 5 succesive days (23rd to 27th inc) with wind gusting over 30 knots, maximum gust was 43 knots on the 25th.

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  Johnno on Sat Sep 05, 2009 6:36 am

Hate to be a party pooper Andrew but IOD whether Negative or Positive only has an influence on our climate between April/May to October also a postive or negative IOD usually finishes up by Late October Early November as well so after November the IOD plays little impact in our weather and it is mainly ssts close to the Australia coast which influence our weather into Summer hence why I have read in many areas as well El Nino having little impact in the Summer months as well. But do agree with you if the IOD behaves through September and October and the SAM is in our favour as well I do think we may get away with some reasonable rainfall unlike the last few Septembers & Octobers & ENSO will have smaller impact but do think once November and December come in it will get very dry and hot down here unlike the past 3 years when November and December have been kind to us thought this for quite a while now.

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:04 am

droughtbreaker wrote:The major factor has been the lack of cold outbreaks that, in a normal year, regularly penetrate well inland in the winter and spring months and 'flush out' built up heat from the interior. This has been directly due to an almost exclusive dominance of W/NW winds Even in late winter, in extraordinary circumstances like this year, heat can build up to the point that places on the NE coast of NSW and QLD can get high 30C temperatures when that air is dragged eastwards. Luckily for us it was dragged eastwards and not southeast. (I think the same factor contributed to the all time record temps in Jan and Feb as well down here Question )

The patterns will have to break eventually and we may go back into a blocking pattern with strong highs or we will start to get significant cold outbreaks through Spring with more southerlies. One thing for sure it can't stay like this forever. Wink

Could this pattern remain into summer, and if so, what type of consequences are we looking at? I would expect the NW airflow to turn drier in the summer months, but through the next 3 months it should be back to wet,windy and stormy weather (much like August). Therefore, assuming that we get average/higher than average rainfall over these months, can we expect a calmer bushfire season, or do you expect the gravity of the underlying dryness will overwhelm any rainfalls we may have?

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  I_Love_Storms on Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:20 am

Aug MWO

Without having access to any formal statistics, I believe that Lilydale had it largest wind event in many years on 25 August and I will focus on this day for this month's MWO.

The deep low pressure system in the bight spawned a rapidly moving and vicious cold front that swept through Lilydale at approximately 5.30pm. Within this cold front was likely a brief super-cell formation that swept through Knox, Boronia and then onto Chirnside Park, Lilydale and Mt Evelyn.

When the front hit Lilydale I remember thinking "I have never seen winds like this, this is crazy, it is like I am in the middle of a tornado". The trees were LITERALLY bending over outside and I was honestly waiting for a gum tree to be uprooted and thrown at my house.

Debris was flying everywhere through the air - bark, little plants, leaves, small twigs etc. I couldn't hear anything else but the howling wind and the slamming hail against the window (probably about 2cm in diameter at its peak), accompanied by both rolling and cracking thunder and sporadic BLUE bolt lightning. Sheets of rain somewhat blocked my sight of the extent of the tree movement but I already knew that much damage had been done by this storm.

I believe that the winds that I witnessed were in excess of 130kph and possibly as high as 150kph. I went for a drive roughly 20 minutes after the storm passed and there was carnage. Tree after tree down across Lilydale, with a certain road losing roughly 10 trees and probably another 30 lost big branches or had snapped. I specifically saw a tree SNAPPED in half that had a base that was approx 1 metre wide and another 2 30 metre high gum trees that were FULLY uprooted.

I trekked up to Mount Evelyn later and saw a lot of damage up there as well.

All in all, a memorable event.

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Sep 05, 2009 10:07 am

Yeah, that's what I had in mind, the next couple of months. If we can keep the IOD phase generally favourable between now and November we will be heading past the point where El Nino has its greatest influence here. IMO, summer down here is not necessarily severely affected by El Nino whereas QLD and NSW are as well as the entire monsoonal zone of Aus.

December 1982, at the height of the massive El Nino and just a couple of months before Ash Wednesday fires, was actually slightly above average here for rainfall. Not sure whether it came as storm outbreaks or more solid rain/showers or whether it was a predominant easterly flow or southerly but it certainly bucked the trend of the previous months all the way back to early autumn which of course as we know were exceptionally dry. After that January and Feb were extremely dry with some extreme hot days but that could have been just as much normal summer climate variation as El Nino effects.

Not sure about the merit of this but my opinion is that the lower the SOI and the weaker the monsoon, the cooler and wetter it is down here in summer and more humid. I come to this conclusion based on how strong monsoons tend to lock up all the moisture in that area of Aus and leave us with a blast of extreme heat and dry when the flow turns northerly from over the inland (which remains mostly cloudless due to all the cloud and rain locked up over the Top End and Nth QLD). This is what seemed to happen last summer. This summer if we have negative SOI with El Nino, we may get less moisture being used by the monsoon trough and more chance for all that humidity to waft down here. Also less buildup of heat over central Aus if the cloud and humidity extends further south. Of course the inland may still heat up and become very dry in El Nino years which cause those extreme Ash Wednesday like days where you get a big spike in temps and low humidity but in general I reckon we may get more storm outbreaks, more instability in general and more southerly days.

I'll say again, that theory could be a lot of ignorant nonsense but I have a strong feeling there is a link.

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  Power Storm on Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:00 pm

Just quickly mentioning, we had 160.0mm of rain for August.

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  norfolk on Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:07 pm

omg Jake really? wow it really was wet over there! I doubt we got any more than 35mm here!

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  Power Storm on Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:49 pm

Yeah I know, and in July we nearly had 150mm, to be exact we had 149.2mm in July. A very wet couple of months here. Our YTD total is at 654.0mm, compared to 596mm last year this time.

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Sep 09, 2009 10:55 am

http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water_storages/water_report/rainfall_data.asp

From Melbourne Water. Rainfall observations from them.
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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Sep 09, 2009 6:40 pm

They're going to have to double check the 96.5mm at Greenvale Res and 16mm at Caulfied. That doesn't make sense at all. Rolling Eyes

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  hillybilly on Sun Oct 04, 2009 5:33 am

September in Ferny Creek

Mean Max 13.8 (about +1)
High Max 23.2C, Low Max 7.6C (the 23.2C an early season record)
Mean Min 7.8C (about +1)
High Min 14.4C, Low Min 4.3C
Rainfall 200.6mm (+76.7mm)
21 Rain days
7 Fog days
4 Thunder days
2 Hail days
2 Graupel/sleet days
0 Snow day

Very wet month for us - wettest since December 2007 and wettest September since 1992 (I think!).

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  hillybilly on Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:33 am

October in Ferny Creek (400m)

Mean Max 16.2 (right on average)
High Max 29.4C, Low Max 10.0C
Mean Min 7.8C (about -1)
High Min 16.7C, Low Min 3.4C
Rainfall 96.3mm (-23.3mm)
16 Rain days
7 Fog days
6 Thunder days
4 Hail days
1 Graupel/sleet days
0 Snow day

Pretty average overall, though another very thundery month with 6 thunder days (follows 4 in September and 6 in August).

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

Post  Dane on Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:54 pm

Temps were about 1c below average for October and we had 3 days of thunder and 1 day of hail. Rain finished up a bit on average with 81mm's (ave 74mm's)

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Re: Monthly Weather Obs.

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