Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jul 20, 2009 5:01 pm

Stunning sunset in Melbourne tonight from the Dandenongs - lots of orange and red (wonder if there is some smoke or dust being brought down in the NW flow).

Storms scraping through Bass Strait (as pretty much expected but As/Ac is thickening - EC has nearly 5mm overnight along the very exposed coast - so my gauge at Sandy Point might record a bit).

Wednesday systems is looking like quite a doozie - low of about 995hPa passing just south of the heads and crossing just north of Wilson Prom. Should see a period of heavy showers/rain, though clearing reasonably quickly ahead of the weekend's system (which is looking more impressive Very Happy ).

Would guess about 20mm in Ferny Creek which will see us close on our monthly average.

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Jul 20, 2009 5:42 pm

This weekend is looking like a major cold outbreak and very showery although we all know how the models can go a bit overboard this far out. We have pretty much missed out on winter this year so it would be nice if it came off.

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:04 pm

Perhaps we could extend the dates then here? As this doesn't cover next weekend or start a new thread for that seperate system

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  typhoon29 on Mon Jul 20, 2009 8:38 pm

balmy stary night out for this time of year, temp gauge showing 11 outside, heat wave in Ballarat. Very Happy relatively calm considering how windy it was today (and the wind chill factor!! felt like 8 most of the day). Lovely cold airmass with that low in the bight winding up alas it'll weaken dramatically befor it hits here. I hope for the weekend it is fine because I'll be down at Apollo Bay for the drinkathon er I mean retreat.
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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jul 20, 2009 8:59 pm

I think I will refine the starting dates and finishing dates as systems have essentially flown SE over the weekend and impact has been minimal.
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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jul 21, 2009 5:35 am

An appalling dry air mass out there ATM with warm temps, strong winds and very low humidity. Dew points into the negatives (down to -2 in the Dandenongs overnight, -2 in Melbourne, -4 in Renmark) and sunrise that looks dusty. Feels like the "start" of El Nino to me Shocked (time will tell...).

Not much weatherwise today apart from the wind. Showers look like being very sparse and high based with more virga than rain. Have to wait for tomorrow to see something more significant (though even that has back peddled and looks more like 2-10mm than the 10-20mm that looked a chance yesterday Rolling Eyes ).

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:52 am

Well a very yuck day out there. This northerly wind has literally done my head in with a lovely migraine for the past day Rolling Eyes. Hopefully that will change as the weather does.

However I am not super confident in precipitation across C and E areas this afternoon in light of the drying of the atmosphere overnight and the persistant strong to gale force NW winds. I think we will see an increase of cloud but that is about it.

I still expect about 5-15mm across southern areas tomorrow with a front and small wave low. Not as good as it looked yesterday but there will be something for most of southern VIC.

Into the weekend the weather takes it up a notch with showers/rain developing on Saturday afternoon and continuing most of next week with strong W/SW winds shifting more SSW by period end. It looks as if that will be the outcome at this time. Could be 30-50mm across southern and mountain VIC out of the sequence from the weekend and 5-20mm across the north.
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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jul 21, 2009 2:28 pm

More crazy weather for Victoria. Mildura up to 24.9C and 21.4C at Avalon (just 2C shy of a record, impressive considering its only July 21). Fire danger has actually rated high in parts of the Mallee today Crying or Very sad With the drying winds it will soon brown off across the plains west of Melbourne and in the northwest if we don't get rain soon.

Virga is thickening up on radar, but horribly dry from 1000 to 700hPa with dp's near -10C. Wouldn't anticipate anything hitting the surface.

BTW really nice line of storms popped up near Mt Gambier - storm warning at http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65502.shtml .

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Jul 21, 2009 2:54 pm

I was about to say to mate. A nifty band of showers/storms developing over the LSE of South Australia where there has been a severe thunderstorm warning issued for damaging winds. I agree with the warning, but I would have added in large hailstones too, because I think there is a significant chance for that happening within the uppers today. Shear levels again today IMO support the chance for upper rotation in thunderstorms over the southwest if they develop, but of course the best chance for action is out at sea again. Wink

Tomorrow we should see the chance area for isolated thunderstorms extend to most areas, but particularly the southern half of the state again.

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jul 21, 2009 3:33 pm

After going off the boil, models are now keen on the system for tomorrow. Both EC and GFS put pretty widespread 10-20mm across the state for the 36 hours. Main areas which have the potential to miss out are central Vic (particularly west of Melbourne... Johnno) and far northwest.

Positive things are a decent period of rain/showers developing in the NW flow tomorrow, then turning cyclonic SW'ly with the cold pool of about 534 running through central Vic on Wed night/Thur morning.

Is going to feel cold and wet after the last few days.

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  mick on Tue Jul 21, 2009 4:12 pm

More very unusual clouds this arvo, great to look at.

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  norfolk on Tue Jul 21, 2009 4:57 pm

Does anyone know when the last time Mildura was 25 in July?

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  typhoon29 on Tue Jul 21, 2009 5:19 pm

another balmy warm sunny windy day in Ballarat, although the wind had rusty razor blades of ice on it. High base fast moving Cu/Cj developed late afternoon with a few large drops making a splat on the windscreen of my car at 110km/h on the freeway. Once again Mt Gambier area seems to be the place to live if you want to see a thunderstorm. These storm embedded fronts seem to weaken and fall apart as they hit land. Would the ocean water temp vs land temps have something to do with that?? Question Would be nice if these storms brewed in the North of the Grampians then we just might see a storm! Tomorrow will be bloody windy with a passing shower.... Rolling Eyes
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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Jul 21, 2009 5:32 pm

Norfolk it got to 25.9C at Mildura in 1985 (on the 28th). Quick squizz of the data suggests the earliest 25C is the 28th (has happened a few times) so almost an early 25C record today with 24.9C.

BTW has been a couple of Mildura sites - this is just for the current Ap site which goes back to 1947. This site record is 26.8C in 1985. The old Post Office site had a 28.9C in 1892, but this ob was taken under a non-standard screen and so isn't comparable (sure Blair could add more if he's around).

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Tue Jul 21, 2009 7:11 pm

2.4C to 10.6C in Trentham - so nothing spectacular here...but what is interesting is the setup of the showers late this afternoon as they came off the ranges to the NW of Melbourne...a significant 'bounce zone' was set up in the NW flow with virga turning into rain after all near Taylors Lakes on the Calder, then the 'ridge area' with the winds (and I pity the poor cop on his bike who turned off at the upper Sunbury turnoff - he was being blown all over the place by the winds coming down the ground level), and clear of cloud between there and the ranges (in the lee of the ranges in the higher pressure zone) and then back under the cloud and more showers as I climbed off the flat country up to the central ranges.....
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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Jul 21, 2009 7:44 pm

A few locally heavy showers went through here earlier, and radar suggests them continuing tonight here so could be in for some okay totals to 9am tomorrow morning, as well as some storms possible tonight and tomorrow in particular.

Also just noticed that the band of storms in SW earlier this evening caused the BoM to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, since been cancelled but could see it be re-introduced later tonight or tomorrow.

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Tue Jul 21, 2009 8:40 pm

hillybilly wrote:More crazy weather for Victoria. Mildura up to 24.9C and 21.4C at Avalon (just 2C shy of a record, impressive considering its only July 21). Fire danger has actually rated high in parts of the Mallee today Crying or Very sad With the drying winds it will soon brown off across the plains west of Melbourne and in the northwest if we don't get rain soon.

Well I dunno about down south but today was a cracker up here for the crops! Nice and warm and a moderate breeze made for a lovely day. We have plenty of moisture so days like today are good growing days(while we have the moisture). Looks like we will not get much this weekend. I have no confidence in WSW winds delivering even much in the way of showers here so hope the southern part of the state that need a drink get it. Hope we can get a good cutoff next time!

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:36 pm

An attempt at a steady shower 6pm this evening but didn't quite make it. Large drops and very convective, almost borderline for storm development. Tomorrow should be interesting. Melbourne almost had a 19C last July on the 14th so with climate change we can expect this. Of course in July 1975 there was that string of days in the low twenties in Melbourne with a couple of 23C days at the end so even without climate change we can get exceptional warm spells at this time of year.

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 22, 2009 4:38 am

Looks interesting across VIC. Quite a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across the state already and that should increase as we go along today. Best falls will be about C and mountain VIC based on timing of the front.

Anticipate 5-15mm across VIC mainly in southern VIC.

Weekend not looking to bad.
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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:39 am

Doubled our event total with 0.6mm overnight Rolling Eyes

Looks OK for today with showers focusing in the NW flow ahead of the front which moves into central Vic around evening. A rather unstable airmass - also - so should see some thunder and decent convection coming in bands. The timing of the front is quite promising.

Still reckon 10-20mm is a fair bet for Ferny Creek for the next 24-36 hours. It doesn't look great for the western plains of Melbourne nor the NW. A fair bit will come down to luck, and whether you get under a showery band (or not).

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:59 am

That cell towards Ballarat looks a little thundery. Few hours on sunshine first. Rain developing in the southwest now.
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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Sniper on Wed Jul 22, 2009 7:14 am

Looking promising Karl. Had yesterday off to look after sick child. Should have taken today off as well..

Leasy should get some nice views from Doncaster looking towards the City.

Beautiful morning in town at the mo, some patchy high cloud, otherwise a ripping morning.

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 22, 2009 7:44 am

The anvil is sheared somewhat from the core. Quite fibrous too.

Plenty of cloud developing as colder air moves in and mixing starts.

Should be a fun afternoon Wes!!
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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Wed Jul 22, 2009 7:54 am

Well, what a nice start to the day, more like a mid spring morning than a winter one. Eye's are glued to the radar today as higher dp's and less vicious winds hopefully help in getting some rain with a bit of duration in them. Storms possible so long as we can get that heat up until atleast 3:30. Got the camera on standby just in case, we'll see what happens.
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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Jul 22, 2009 8:58 am

Some rather heavy rain falling out under the band with Cape Nelson (near Portland) having 10mm in the last 2 hours and Parawa (south of Adelaide having 16mm in the last 2 hours). With the rain band sliding along its axis (and edging east) could be some rather significant rainfall totals - certainly wouldn't rule out the odd 20-30mm total through the west.

Is a rather odd system with the trough lying back so far with a screaming jet over the top (in excess of 160knots over SW NSW) while Victoria's west/SA SE lies in the right exit region of the jet which is providing the divergence for the rain band. The divergence is currently strengthening so the rain band should thicken up for a period before weaking later.

PS just started raining here - perhaps a wave off the central ranges Question

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Re: Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

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