Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Page 1 of 8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Jul 24, 2009 9:32 am

Well a nice long fetch westerly belt is in the process of setting up over southern Australia over the coming week it two driving very showery weather onto the exposed coasts and scattering showers further inland.

A sequence of cold fronts looks set to develop within the belt and the potential is there too see the stength of those increase also as we get into later week.

So overall it's typical winter westerly, would like to see it a little further north but these are the times!!!

Latest US is increasing precip across the south. 10-25mm but up to 50mm along the coastal fringe. EC increases frontal activity late next week to a frequency of one a day with blustery winds.


Last edited by Karl Lijnders on Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:15 am; edited 1 time in total
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Fri Jul 24, 2009 4:50 pm

Few thoughts on this "system"...

Looks like the first "front" will scrape the southwest of Vic/SE SA late Friday/Saturday with showers mainly confined to the far southwest (though watch for some possible showers further east in strong warm air advection).

Next system then follows through on Sunday - has a reasonable upper trough (thickness values to 536gpdm) and is likely to have a weak rainband.

A moist unstable NW to SW flow then becomes established ahead of a slow moving high. This period looks very showery/drizzly in parts of the south and about the ranges. Best falls will likely be about the far southwest, northeast ranges, south Gippsland and perhaps the Yarra Ranges. North of the ranges it looks like be fairly dry.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Fri Jul 24, 2009 4:55 pm

a few meaty showers now showing up on the radar back through SA. These sit in two bands Question running almost west-to-east - one band running over KI and the other near Mt Gambier. Nothing much showing yet in Victoria (best is 0.4mm at Casterton).

Expect that these showers will weaken as they move into Vic (but you never know).

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jul 25, 2009 5:56 am

Some decent falls about the far southwest with rain continuing. Best fall being 15mm at Dartmoor. LAPS has this rain continuing for the next ~24 hours, but not moving much east.

Sunday looks like giving more general rain, but not big totals - guess mostly 2-5mm for most.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Jul 25, 2009 8:27 am

Nice to see W/NW airflow over the next week. In this setup we should not completely miss out here with heaps of showers developing on the ranges from past experience of this sort of pattern. Accumulated totals could add up if it continues as long as suggested in the forecast.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jul 25, 2009 6:58 pm

Tried to rain down here a few times today but never got going. Just too far north/east(which was fine with me anyway as I had some painting to do Smile ).

This "event" is really going to split the state - parts of the south are likely to do very well (GFS has falls to near 100mm in south Gippsland) while the north will get hardly any. Expect Melbourne's southern and eastern burbs will do OK (am expecting about 20mm in Ferny Creek for the week). Sunday should see showers develop - associated with a decent upper trough and a weaker surface trough. Unfortunately the up-splide with this system is a long way north in NSW where the upper trough is sharper and the surface winds near to northerly.

Could see a decent burst of showers on Monday in SW flow behind the front - there are actually "two" fronts/troughs - the first on Sunday and the second on Monday.

PS Andrew with the upper trough tending to be to our east the winds will likely be more southwest and northwest this week. This is another one of those odd systems with lots of warm air advection in west/southwest flow, which means the flow backs with height (changes anticlockwise).

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Jul 25, 2009 7:47 pm

Yeah, I was reading the BOM forecast which was saying W/NW all week but the models clearly indicate W/SW winds. Still seem to be a lot of showers with it but we are severely disadvantaged here in any sort of SW flow, W/SW heavily favours the coast.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jul 25, 2009 7:55 pm

It may be W/NW at the surface but the steering for the showers will likely be W/SW (I usually use the 850hPa level for Sc/St type showers) for much of the week ahead - of course you also get lots of surface variations in central Vic. We don't often see the situation of backing winds with west/southwesterlies and when it does happen it has the potential to be very wet in coastal parts as you set up "upslide". This explains in part why GFS is so wet.

BTW you may well do OK as there are around 4 frontal features embbed in the stream - each will briefly turn winds more northwest.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Sat Jul 25, 2009 9:45 pm

I still expect to see isolated thunderstorms over the western and Wimmera districts tomorrow in particular with the trough, should be unstable and advection purposes may get things active. Should also be fairly turbulent in my opinion if your flying tomorrow.

Managed to see lightning tonight too with the cell offshore currently.

Power Storm

Posts : 703
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 24
Location : Simpson South

http://www.australianweathernow.yolasite.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Jul 25, 2009 11:59 pm

Interesting you talking about the upper features DJ and the steering flow being more WSW. I had 0.6mm overnight (Fri) from showers that seem to form over me for about an hour or so. It was such a weak system that passed to our south so if that is any indication it could be not to bad out this way for the week.

I think any shift more WSW/SW over the week we could see falls increase dramatically about the foothills/Dandenongs this week.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Mantis on Sun Jul 26, 2009 1:33 pm

Bright sunshine here all day

Mantis

Posts : 54
Join date : 2009-06-13
Location : Horsham

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sun Jul 26, 2009 2:29 pm

Frustrating day of weather with it all happening to our north (NSW) or south (Tasmania). Nothing much to report - bit of cloud and that is it!

Few OK showers now moving into southwest parts, but not a lot in them. Have to wait for the next front which moves through central areas tomorrow arvo.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  norfolk on Sun Jul 26, 2009 3:30 pm

that sounds normal these days. Either everything is north or south of us.

norfolk

Posts : 413
Join date : 2009-05-19
Age : 42
Location : Caroline Springs

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Tin Roof on Sun Jul 26, 2009 3:54 pm

Managed 4 days without rain this month in Portland.126mm all up.
After a glorious afternoon, its drizzling again as I type. Smile

Tin Roof

Posts : 3
Join date : 2009-06-12
Location : Portland,Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Jul 26, 2009 4:14 pm

Models scaled right back for today probably a few days ago and had nothing at all for most of VIC. Tomorrow looks pretty weak as well, mid week things seem to improve a bit with a few showers here and there and probably quite drizzly about the coast and ranges. EC breaks down the high ridging after next weekend. A long way out I know but good to see at the end of the run. The high ridge basically contracts further north allowing the full brunt of the westerlies in with strong fronts. If that does come off then it will be a return to wet for most of the state. Here's hoping, we don't have much other good news to report.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Sun Jul 26, 2009 4:49 pm

I think it will scale that right down too which seems to be the norm lately was only 5 days ago this week looked good then every run the westerly belt keeps getting pushed further south as do the fronts this is typical now of an El Nino year with the models over estimating everything a week or so out and scaleing back by at least 50%. Looks dissmal in my eyes the next couple of weeks hence my quiteness about this.

Johnno

Posts : 741
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 39
Location : Near the Showgrounds

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Sun Jul 26, 2009 6:37 pm

We are getting quite a few heavy showers now. I suspect up to 3mm here to 9am tomorrow.

Power Storm

Posts : 703
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 24
Location : Simpson South

http://www.australianweathernow.yolasite.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Mon Jul 27, 2009 5:36 am

0.2mm overnight so have opened the account for this event Rolling Eyes . Not sure when it rained, but the ground was wet and there was a dribble in the gauge.

Not a great day today - rain wise - but things are slowly moistening up and a weak front moves through today. Few good showers currently in the far southwest and should see these spreading east as the steering flow slowly becomes more west to west-southwest.

EC has this pattern continuing for the next 10+ days with a few OK fronts so still pretty confident that this "event" will deliver for coastal/mountains parts.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:18 am

Latest US still has 10-20mm for E and S suburbs. Up to 50mm further south.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Jul 27, 2009 12:20 pm

Fairly heavy showers moving in along a cold front. Very dark to my west.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  SC on Mon Jul 27, 2009 12:23 pm

Yeah light rain falling here and starting to get heavier as I type.
avatar
SC

Posts : 105
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 50
Location : Notting Hill

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Dez on Mon Jul 27, 2009 1:45 pm

Had 2 showers today. One was quite light and drizzle-like. Second one just past and had moderate-precipitation.

At the moment, the showers near Werribee and to the west of the suburb seem to be disapating so i don't think there will be any more showers heading my way.

Dez

Posts : 84
Join date : 2009-07-22
Location : Taylors Lakes

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Mon Jul 27, 2009 2:54 pm

Plent of showers here today, quite heavy at times too.

Power Storm

Posts : 703
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 24
Location : Simpson South

http://www.australianweathernow.yolasite.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  typhoon29 on Mon Jul 27, 2009 3:47 pm

a real wintry day here. Funny how they forecasted brief light showers. Geez we had some very very heavy showers today! Laughing It poured around 2:45pm. Have to go check the gauge.

Gauge checked tipped out 7mm, not bad!


Last edited by typhoon29 on Mon Jul 27, 2009 4:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
typhoon29

Posts : 73
Join date : 2009-06-13
Age : 39
Location : Ballarat (Brown Hill)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Mantis on Mon Jul 27, 2009 3:53 pm

3mm here today with some solid showers around lunchtime

Mantis

Posts : 54
Join date : 2009-06-13
Location : Horsham

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum