Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Aug 01, 2009 6:09 am

More mizzle overnight with 1.3mm in the gauge this morning. Looks like a nice day to be out in the garden - rather mild, a bit humid and probably not that wet.

Sunday's system is looking very promising - EC for example has 5-20mm across most of southern Vic Very Happy with a weak front on Tuesday (perhaps even a warm front) and then another solid cold front on Thursday.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Sat Aug 01, 2009 11:52 am

Nice showers here at the moment mabye close to 1mm

Way I see it DJ tomorrow looks ok but UK isn't really onboard with EC and never has been to this point which makes me wonder abit.

All models have downgraded for Tuesday however Thursday looks better we shall see how it pans out.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sat Aug 01, 2009 1:19 pm

A damp day up here in the end - has drizzled most afternoon (which is why I'm in). About 2mm so far.

BTW some amazing obs to our south... This one's from Mt Wellington (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60901/IDT60901.95979.shtml)
01/01:49pm -1.4 -26.2 -1.5 99 0.0 WSW 119 141 64 76 - 0.2

An apparent temperature of -26.2C Shocked and a wind gust of 141km/hr.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 01, 2009 3:28 pm

I must say that the showers have been a little more extensive that I thought. Plenty of showers and drizzle from about 1pm here today. Only about 2.6mm with the heaviest showers passing at 3pm and now.

Looking alright for a few mm into the catchment 5mm or so, and 2-3mm in the outer E and NE suburbs.

Should be a few showers off and on overnight.

Tomorrow looks OK with a nice NW wind developing, up to 80kmh later through Melbourne. I still think a fairly useful period of shower or rain activity for southern and mountain areas, with the exposed coasts fairing best. Up to 10mm likely through some southern and eastern suburbs of Melbourne with Melbourne itself likely to receive up to 5mm max.

Quite showery early Monday through the south and east but contracting south as the day goes on as winds tend more NNW again ahead of the next system. This system looks a little disappointing with the potential early on for a low level snow event. I think that has passed at this point in time and we may have to wait for later in the week into the weekend for that. Still another 5-10mm across southern areas out of this looks fair.

Beyond that we shift back into a vigorous NW/SW stream for Thurs/Fri with periods of showers and gale force winds. A brief respite with Saturday looking fine but those strong N winds developing again. Perhaps by weekends end there could be another major low/frontal system with periods of rain statewide. The south certainly looking quite soggy for the next week and cool to mild.
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  DC449 on Sat Aug 01, 2009 4:14 pm

Great it has to be windy for my 100th game of footy:( i hate playing in wind
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Sun Aug 02, 2009 8:34 am

4.3mm here in the end for Ferny Creek. Ended up raining for nearly 10hours, but mostly mizzle with the occasional heavy burst. Now on 12 rain days in a row and an event total of ~26mm Smile More good rain in the catchments - Buller now up to nearly 100mm for this event and still raining (not snowing Shocked ).

Not looking so great the next 24 hours now, though it still looks quite good for parts of the south - particularly the Yarra Ranges and south Gippsland, southwest coast with a decent burst of showers with the front (due later today). Expect about 5-10mm up here now overnight.

No obvious break in this pattern with EC, GAPS, UK and JMA continuing showers right through for the next 7-10 days. Fronts due on Sunday/Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday at this stage (though timing is tricky). Is a long time since I last remember such a protracted showery westerly up here - would guess a couple of years at least.

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Aug 02, 2009 2:46 pm

Well 2mm overnight which keeps things ticking over so that is good. I suspect more of the same this week with periods of showers and gusty winds.

Checkng the 28 day rain outlook it could mean more falls everyday this month!! Literally!!!
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Sun Aug 02, 2009 4:31 pm

Very windy here today but it remained mostly dry, however some locally heavy showers developing on the radar now across the southwest ahead of the cold front. Will be interesting, yeah Karl I saw that too a little while go! Haha.

Still watching next weekend (Sunday), could be interesting, but I will be at the snow!!!

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Sun Aug 02, 2009 6:00 pm

Johnno wrote:Nice showers here at the moment mabye close to 1mm

Way I see it DJ tomorrow looks ok but UK isn't really onboard with EC and never has been to this point which makes me wonder abit.

All models have downgraded for Tuesday however Thursday looks better we shall see how it pans out.


Once again it looks like UK was right all along. It amazes me how far more superior this model is than most others

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Aug 02, 2009 7:39 pm

3.2mm overnight, I'm getting slack with recording rainfall lately. Several heavy drizzle showers contributed to that.

It has been very windy here since mid afternoon. 9C atm but the wind chill is rather intense. Actually went for a bit of a walk at 5pm today in the thick of it and came back with earache, neck ache, toothache the works from the strong wind and bad wind chill. Cool

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Aug 02, 2009 9:33 pm

Well the front is racing in and should deliver a period of heavy rain and winds near 110kmh in Melbourne by 1-2am. Should see 5-10mm across most southern areas.
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  James on Sun Aug 02, 2009 9:35 pm

quite lightning active as well, do you think it will stay that way by the time it gets here?

i dont, but i think some heavy windy rain shortly but its moving pretty quick

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Flangfest on Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:02 pm



Current Radar Image @ 1:00am. Not sure if anyone is up but lightning active. Interesting to see what happens when it hits. Very Happy Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  James on Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:09 pm

I'm up waiting to see what it brings....

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  James on Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:39 pm

we have thunder!

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  SC on Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:42 pm

Had a massive crack over my house, I was awake at the the time but had no flash. Gees this line of storms is fast moving. Shocked
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  James on Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:48 pm

we have hail....real bad

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  James on Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:51 pm

my hear is pounding....a few seconds of torrential hail so bad it was almost smashing my windows as the wind blew it sideways...then as quick as it came it stopped

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  SC on Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:52 pm

Had a short burst of hail too James with that storm, still raining now. That line was really prevelant on the doplar wind aswell.
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  James on Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:55 pm

so strange, chucked down for about 30 seconds so bad, hail thunder and now dead quiet, no breeze, nothing - not even rain

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:56 pm

Right on cue. Winds to 120kmh here, power out. Hail to 1cm, torrential rain to white out conditions. One flang. Lots of dazed people turning on lights here in the street.

10mm possible. Lightning continues over the east!!!
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  SC on Mon Aug 03, 2009 12:02 am

Still raining here. Even the Sat pic has that line pronouced and fast moving.
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Mon Aug 03, 2009 12:36 am

1.52 woken by huge thunder, Hail turned on the sensor light, never lost power. had a good 30 minutes of storm.
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 03, 2009 5:28 am

Amazing pick there Karl on the timing. Hit right on cue.

Almost embarrassed to admit I slept through the whole thing - but must have been wild with branches all over the roads this morning and a big blackwood blocking the tourist road.... 5.4mm of rain (bit less that I had thought/hope) but a peak rain of 105mm/hr. Huge shame it didn't come through at 4pm on Sunday afternoon. Event total is now near 30mm and edging up.

BTW you can see the sequence at http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=023&numberofImages=10&dateStart=1249219200&dateFinish=1249244400 .

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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 03, 2009 5:47 am

Very fast moving sequence. I ended with 6mm at home. Very bleary eyed this morning but worth it.

Looks like a good day out there. Back to a few showers tomorrow. Thursday could be the next interesting front.
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Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

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