Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Page 3 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Wed Jul 29, 2009 8:02 pm

hillybilly wrote:Well another frustrating day rain wise (around Melbourne) - kept looking promising but not to be (so far). Still the "trough" looks to be moving up now with showers running along it - being drizzle they are probably being underestimated on radar so could be a little bit in it.

BTW quite a step up in the rainfall being forecasted with tomorrows front (by the models) - GFS suggests up to 20mm as does EC. Fingers crossed. Also looking quite promising for the front early next week Very Happy

Yeah DJ noticed UK also has similar falls for us for Central Victoria so perhaps a reasonable drop. I'll be happy with 5mm.

Johnno

Posts : 741
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 39
Location : Near the Showgrounds

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Power Storm on Wed Jul 29, 2009 8:14 pm

Also Andrew, adding on to John's post, since I have been alive and can remember, when we have had an El Nino during the Spring/Summer months, we have had an increase in thunderstorm activity, so not all bad.

Power Storm

Posts : 703
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 24
Location : Simpson South

http://www.australianweathernow.yolasite.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:04 pm

5-10mm for here I reckon but closer to 5 than 10. Good to see the models actually upgrade as we get closer to a shower/rain event for once rather than downgrade.

droughtbreaker

Posts : 640
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 35
Location : Mount Macedon (520m asl)

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Guest on Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:27 pm

0.5mm last night was the first rain for this event, a little more drizzle atm.
Tomorrow looking alright.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:23 am

~2mm overnight with persistent drizzly showers. Really a sign of things tonight. Pretty dry this morning but a good period of showers later.

Monday looks similar. Anticipate 10-15mm here tonight.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jul 30, 2009 6:45 am

Scored 2.3mm overnights so an event total of 5.5mm and slowly edging up. I reckon the next 36 hours look very promising for us. All of EC/US/UK have widespread 5-10mm with falls approaching 20mm locally in central areas. This front is standing up and has a very good RH max associated with it which looks to me like a rain band (then followed by a good burst of showers). EC has rain through Melbourne from early afternoon.

Sunday's system and that on Monday/Tuesday also look very promising. Notice the GFS is really cranking up rainfall totals now with some areas looking at 50mm+ through the next week. Question Also possibility of low level snow on Tuesday.

BTW we should probably move the El Nino discussion to here - http://planetweather.forumotion.net/climatology-f4/enso-iod-t48.htm .

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jul 30, 2009 7:07 am

Looks quite good as DJ says, and if things come off as forecast there could be some reasonable runoff in the catchmemts.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:37 pm

Some nice rain settling in. Only seems to be two people excited about however!!!
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Sniper on Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:40 pm

Hahaha Karl Laughing

Closing in nicely here in town. Not sure about 10mm but lets see what this evening and overnight brings!!

Sniper

Posts : 652
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 40
Location : Doncaster East - 133 asl

http://www.stubbysolutions.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Guest on Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:44 pm

Always nice to see a bit of rain around, 1.5mm last night am hoping for 10mm overnight but even 5 would be welcome.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:12 pm

Steady rain in the CBD, but don't anticipate this initial bit will last long (the main band sits back along the coast - is up to 6mm at Port Fairy, for example). We have some nice upper divergence developing over us ATM (would guess the right exit region of a jet) so things are thickening and developing (instead of dieing).

Does look like a wet night - http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=vic&start=1&stop=1&gribdate=2009073000 - Very Happy

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly. July 25th - ??? 2009.

Post  Scott Lawrance on Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:14 pm

Hope it makes it over the mountain to Yea! The dams are nowhere near full!

Scott Lawrance

Posts : 69
Join date : 2009-07-23
Age : 58
Location : Yea Victoria

http://www.ghinghin.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  firestorm on Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:46 pm

steady rain for last 30min looks like the whole thing is building as it crosses the state 1mm an its cold No

firestorm

Posts : 128
Join date : 2009-06-13
Age : 33
Location : Aireys Inlet

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly. July 25th - ??? 2009.

Post  Scott Lawrance on Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:52 pm

Brilliant! Bring it on!

Scott Lawrance

Posts : 69
Join date : 2009-07-23
Age : 58
Location : Yea Victoria

http://www.ghinghin.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Dez on Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:11 pm

At the moment, it's raining here and it looks like the showers coming towards us from the south west look quite heavy. The shower above us at the moment is also getting heavier so it's quite interesting.

Dez

Posts : 84
Join date : 2009-07-22
Location : Taylors Lakes

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:48 pm

Up to 9mm at Cape Nelson and still falling. Also spreading north of the divide Very Happy

OK sure this isn't a BIG event but surprises have been few and far in this years of non-stop duds.

Looks like about 4mm so far in Ferny Creek (Dunns Hill undereads in gusty northerlies)... and may well see close to 20mm going by LAPS/GFS/EC. July will now be above average - the second above average for the year (with March).

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  SC on Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:18 pm

Gees Frankston and Mornington are going to get some serious rain looking at the radar atm.
avatar
SC

Posts : 105
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 49
Location : Notting Hill

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  mick on Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:30 pm

Yes steady rain down this way the last 20 minutes.

mick

Posts : 149
Join date : 2009-06-30
Location : down the bay

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:42 pm

About 4.8mm at home with solid rainfall now, less drizzly.

Looks like 5-10mm coming in the next band!!!
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  DC449 on Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:07 pm

Looks good, raining here
avatar
DC449

Posts : 156
Join date : 2009-06-13
Age : 23
Location : Melbourne SE

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Blackie on Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:10 pm

hmmm...is that a squall line developing on the eastern edge of that next heavier band? Solid, moderate rain from the CBD back to Elwood which was a 50 min trip tonight! Hope everyone else is still getting a bit! Smile

Blackie

Posts : 52
Join date : 2009-06-16
Age : 52
Location : Elwood and Mansfield, Vic

http://www.aridzone.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  SC on Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:33 pm

How much follow up rain do you think we'll get after this next band comes through?
avatar
SC

Posts : 105
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 49
Location : Notting Hill

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:36 pm

6mm up here in Ferny Creek for this arvo now and a juicy rain band approaching from the SW (event total at ~11mm). Wettest month of the year now with 120mm Very Happy and the frogs are out in force tonight in the garden.

Is a decent period of SW'lies following this front so more showers tomorrow - reckon 20mm is a pretty good bet for us before this front is done.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:50 pm

It is coming down nicely here in Glen Waverly so I think 10-20mm over the east looks OK. Hopefully that next band sitting more E-W behind the main rain comes across and stalls through Melbourne.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Dane on Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:52 pm

Over 9mm's here now with still some more to come, up to 80mm's for the month now just over the average, keep it coming. Very Happy

Dane

Posts : 91
Join date : 2009-05-18
Age : 65
Location : Cranbourne

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Traditional Winter Westerly #1. July 25th - August 5th 2009.

Post  Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum