Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

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Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:13 am

A wild cold front is due in VIC in the next 48hrs with locally damaging NW winds, showers and thunderstorms and a good chance of hail again.

Lots of divergence beyond Saturday with cold air floating through region likely to spawn a low off the E coast.

Thoughts???
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Sniper on Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:54 am

My initial thoughts were that the low would spawn off the East coast of Tassie. Was expecting a rapid change Friday with similar clearance. Still a couple of days out, but looks promising.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed Aug 05, 2009 2:51 pm

Friday still looks fairly decent. The Thing that amazes me is BOM have thrown the rules out the window for once and are going against EC with their forecasts tonight for Melbourne Sunday and Monday with a SSW change Sunday and even hail in the forecast which is the excat opposite of what EC was showing this morning (which was long fetched Northerlies and 10c higher temps than GFS in the 850Ts deperatment which DJ highlighted earlier today). 1st time since the new forecast system came in late October last year that EC has been overridden and have gone with GFS.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  mick on Wed Aug 05, 2009 4:14 pm

Bit of action in the sky this evening to the east, nice sausage roll visible late this arvo and some mackeral to the west. Somethings on its way, a bit more lively than was in the forecast imo.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:18 pm

Yeah John, noticed that too mate... One of the senior meteorologists have made a big-move!

I am still liking Friday as well, though the high ridge moves in quickly easing and clearing activity quite fast Friday night and during Saturday morning. Good chance for thunderstorms I think as well Thursday night in the west and throughout the south on Friday. Very strong winds too, up to 110 km/h gusts possible, not easing to later Friday from the west either.

Could also see quite a bit of rainfall across the southern half as well.


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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:36 pm

Hardly much change to report for Friday - progs are rock solid on a fast front moving through central areas of Vic in the early hours. There is a very sharp temperature gradient across the front so very strong winds and a good burst of showers/rain as it moves through - looks like 5-15mm pretty widespread through the south. Expected something like 10-20mm in Ferny Creek. Wouldn't be surprised to see the odd rumble and certainly a bit of hail post front.

Very cold air for a brief period but clearing very quickly (all pretty much over by Friday evening) - could almost see the odd wet flurry about the tops of the Dandenongs on Friday.

Progs are badly spit for the weekend - so will wait another 12-24 hours. My gut feeling is that EC will win out - GASP has moved in that direction and EC is usually the most reliable model. Not that keen on the US/GFS scenario to tell the truth - that set up with a minor tweak could set up a big block in the Tasman sea and switch Vic's rain off for the next 1-2 weeks were it to happen.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:41 pm

BTW worth checking out some of the obs in southern WA today.

This is Eucla's 3pm ob (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW6042.latest.shtml). That is down-right horrible for the first week of August and very close (if not) an early season record. Such an appalling dry air mass is certainly consistent with a strengthening El Nino.

05/03:00pm 28.0 21.3 -8.3 9 14.8 NW 20 33 11 18 1011.4

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:53 pm

Hi DJ, does the EC scenario at least bring reasonable rain across the state Sunday to mid next week? if it does I'm all for it too but if it doesn't I prefer the US scenario. The upslide seems to be NW to NE over us by EC which indicates the Upper trough or Upper disturbance near us or just to our west

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:02 pm

Eventually. Initially rain is mostly confined to the west but becomes more general through the week.

I wouldn't put too much faith in any of the forecasts at this stage beyond Saturday - should settle down by tomorrow.

PS you can see the rain forecasts from the EC at http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Glen_Waverley/advanced_map.html

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:06 pm

Cheers thanks for that

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Aug 05, 2009 9:39 pm

Amazing halo around the moon presently. N winds already on the increase.

Must watch the effect of the northerly winds on the rainband this time tomorrow.

Re: EC and US split, I think the overall pattern looks set to resolve into a westerly that will produce more frontal rains for southern Vic.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Aug 06, 2009 5:37 am

Looks to me like the progs have slightly increased Friday's system now. GFS shows lots of 10mm+ falls across the south supported by EC. EC has the front through Melbourne just before 4am with pressure dropping to near 1000hPa across the south and a period of rain/heavy showers.

Neither GFS nor EC want to budge for the weekend - still very different scenarios - though by mid week they looks similar again as the low drifts south and westerlies re-establish. The set-up has the potential to be very wet for the southeast but with cut-offs the rain will likely show strong gradients and amounts will totally depend on the final details. Perhaps the 12Z run will make things clearer Rolling Eyes

BTW very warm in the Dandenongs last night - didn't get below 10C for us which is our average maximum for August.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 06, 2009 5:59 am

I still think US will win out on this one. Looking showery out central and eastern VIC Sunday afternoon.

Loving the build up to this system. Going to be a very wild night with squally NW winds. Still got to factor in the speed and northerly winds impacting this rainband, up to 10mm looks OK.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:32 am

Good morning everyone, I'm looking forward to this one. We are into the early stages of this system and that wind is already pretty bad out there. My car got blown all over the place along the Deer Park bypass this morning.


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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:33 am

Increase in the forecast temp; 21C now!!! This will increase the winds and increase our storm chances.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:50 am

Yeah DJ Looks like JMA and GASP have tilted more towards the GFS scenario this morning for the weekend and early next week. UK looks to be heading that way too but hard to say given only goes up to sat night. NOGAPS sits inbetween with a high ridging in for the weekend while EC is the one that goes against every other model and continues to prog what it progs. Time will tell I guess.

Tonight/Tomorrow morning looks good its going to be nasty especially the wind.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Hinezy on Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:09 am

I can't see the temp getting up to 21c with all this mid-high level cloud around.. There are a few blue gaps around tho' so hopefully if we can get a bit of diurnal heating around the place over the next few hours it could increase our chances of something a bit later on like Karl said.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:13 am

I think they should of stuck to 19c can't see it being any higher to much cloud cover the wind has a bite to it the warmest air is to far north to have an 21c impact on Melbourne today and we need alot of sunshine for this time of the year to get extreme temps like this here. Temp hasn't budged since this morning if anything even slipped a degree back at 14c in the CBD and North of us at the Airport showing no signs of increasing either hovering around 12-13c there will have to be a major major warm up in the next 2-3 hours to get temps around 21c in Melbourne can't see it happening.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Mantis on Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:02 am

Nothing happening here. Sunny breaks and light wind

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:50 am

Worth watching the NW of Vic (up to 24.2C in Mildura). Here are the record highs for Mildura by days 1-7 in August
21.4 23.2 22.7 23.6 24.4 23.1 22.4 - so a chance for an early August record (though it has got to 26.8C in the last week of July).

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 06, 2009 1:00 pm

I like the steep lapse and thermal gradient along this cold front - now with temps near 20C over much of the state and some very cold air coming in on the front, this should be enough to support a line of showers and storms.

Mid level cloud signatures indicate ample instability.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  mick on Thu Aug 06, 2009 3:53 pm

Pretty windy down here and white caps beginning on the bay.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:03 pm

Just got home from work, and was suprised to find my area must be quite sheltered, almost like a warm pocket of air down here, very mild outside. Really quite interested to see what happens over the next 24hours. Should definitely see some mild falls around the state.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:12 pm

Melbourne almost at its warmest right now at 18.3. Very spring-like (how many time have we said this over the last 4-6 weeks!!).

Apart from wind, a quiet night ahead. Will be setting the alarm for 2am to check the radar and then ride the change thru from around 3.30am.

Stay safe everyone.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  mick on Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:31 pm

18 here also, is warmer outside than inside. Brownie has called 120k squalls ion the bay tonight, but didnt give a clue as to timing of the change arriving.

Cmon guys, what time should I get up in the morning or could we have a repeat of earlier in the week?

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

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