Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:39 pm

Somewhere between 3 and 5am

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  typhoon29 on Thu Aug 06, 2009 5:26 pm

you are right about it being warmer out than in. Close anyway. it is 18 inside and 14 outside! That is HOT for Ballarat at this time of year, a city that gets a bad name as the coldest place in Victoria. Very breezy outside. Yeah a decent rain band with the cold front looks to be developing. Rain here at first light me thinks. Looking forward to after the change with the cold air behind it. Bring on the coldies!
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  tizza on Thu Aug 06, 2009 5:29 pm

The wind has really picked up here in the last 30mins, I spent most of the day in the north central region, where it was very windy at higher elevations, that's to be expected obviously, but has anyone else had a notable wind increase in the last half hour. It's rather sporadic but the gusts are getting stronger quite quickly. It will be interesting to see how high they go when the front is quite a few hours out. Mt D has just recorded 93kms at 7:09pm. It should be quite a nasty night. Stay safe everyone!
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Madmel on Thu Aug 06, 2009 5:32 pm

Has indeed gotten breezy outside within the last hour

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Aug 06, 2009 5:33 pm

The wind is really roaring through the tree tops up here tonight - top gust so far 45 knots at Dunns Hill (even got to 17 knots on my garden AWS which is the just short of my ~18 months record of 22knots). Could well see some 100km+ gust soon.

Currently on our day's max 14.4C and still rising. This is a near record warm air mass, though thankfully just missing us (hottest air is back through SA) and coming overnight so we won't get the 25C that we could have got...

Looks to me like a front through here at about 4am. Looks like a ripper, though clearing quickly. Wouldn't be surprised if there is some blowing dust on the front, and a few claps of thunder (shame I'll be tucked in bed). Almost a chance for some sleet at the tops of the Dandenongs during tomorrow.

PS EC and GFS trying to converge for the weekend - still pretty messy but at this stage starting to favour an deepening easterly dip over Victoria. These can be very very productive rain producers.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Aug 06, 2009 5:51 pm

I am also likeing the chances for a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop overnight ahead/with the change, there does seem to be a little instability around. Nothing on the radar yet from what I could see, but the instability was outright shown as I was coming home from sport, with great looking mamatus clouds right above us. Very turbulent they looked. Also winds today have been howling for the most part, particularly this afternoon. Expect to continue that, as well as an increase of winds for a period near the change.

Weatherwise, I expect to see scattered showers and perhaps a squall line/s to develop over the southwest overnight ahead/with/following the change, gradually extending throughout during the morning tomorrow. Persistent strong winds easing later tomorrow as the activity quickly contracts east and southwards.

Early next week looking a little unstable I must agree, but still messy on the models.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:09 pm

Melb temp up to 19 @ 8pm. Sheer madness!! Shocked

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:12 pm

Can it get to 20??? The winds are only going to get stronger before the change hits. I wonder what the temp would be now if it was the middle of Jan...38?

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:18 pm

Welcome to the forum I_L_S!!! Not sure what these conditions would be in we were in January, but it would be horrible!!

On a side note, this event is also effecting Tassie. Strahan has already picked up 450mm this winter and is under a constant, moist NW flow. Another Flood Watch advice has been posted for Tassie. Maybe we need to build that pipe to Tassie!! Razz

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  tizza on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:37 pm

I'd hate to think if it were summer, anyway I just had my 1st huntsman experience for the season. The arachnid is never wrong! I don't get them inside unless something major is going down, especially in regards to heavy rain. Gusts are still increasing. Man I HATE spiders and every time I get a big one inside it's a 99% hit rate.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:51 pm

13C here atm, fairly windy but nothing major yet although apparently it was bad earlier today. Pity most of us will miss this system coming through. I get up at 6am but I guess it will be too late, still might see a bit of residual rain behind the initial frontal passage. You'd have to reckon a squall line will come through after the last system which we all missed as well thanks to it coming through in the middle of the night.

Looks very interesting for Sunday onwards, especially locally, with cold air surging up over us and then cut off by a strong high to the south as a rather vigorous SE airstream sets up and possible cut off low. Still massive uncertainty about what will actually happen but it is looking like we could get quite a soaking here at this stage.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  DC449 on Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:54 pm

Cant belive how it feels outside
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Aug 06, 2009 7:07 pm

granted my thermo is not the most accurate, but out of the wind its picking up 20 now. This is madness for this time of night at this time of year. This could be a very interesting evening. i think an all nighter is called for.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Lily on Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:27 pm

I just had my 1st huntsman experience for the season. The arachnid is never wrong!

Ugh, Tizz! Did you have to say that? I can't stand the things, I've got goosepimples now! I agree, though, when the huntsmen are out, the rain's on it's way. Now I'm going to be on hunstman watch & checking everywhere tonight affraid

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:30 pm

Lily wrote:
I just had my 1st huntsman experience for the season. The arachnid is never wrong!

Ugh, Tizz! Did you have to say that? I can't stand the things, I've got goosepimples now! I agree, though, when the huntsmen are out, the rain's on it's way. Now I'm going to be on hunstman watch & checking everywhere tonight affraid

Wow Lily, you seriously havnt had them yet. We have had a few this week. admittedly started the night before the last line of storms come through.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Lily on Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:42 pm

Noooooo, stop it AmaroK! I'll be paranoid getting into my car tomorrow now! Usually we get them under the pergola, but haven't seen any... yet affraid

(Good to see you, buddy Smile, have replied to your pm)

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Rivergirl on Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:07 pm

I've had a few in my car. I just pick them up and throw them out the window. Really freaks people out lol but I've never been bitten, they just feel a bit hairy Very Happy They're often in the house too but I leave them be except when they worry my son then I just put them outside Smile

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:12 pm

Winds in Trentham started to pick up around 10pm - had a couple of 50kmh gusts, then got to 60kmh just before 11pm. At the same time the temperature went from 10 to 12.5C!!
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Lily on Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:14 pm

Oh that's just gross, RG rofl! Righto, off to bed for me, fingers crossed I get to hear some wet stuff on the roof sometime in the early hours of the morning. I should be right, I'll be like this all night checking for huntsmans now Shocked Smile

Temp's backed off a little here in the last half hour down to 17.1, gusty winds still.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:45 pm

I have got images of you Robyn throwing spiders out of your car as casually as putting your seatbelt on. What a classic!!!!

It's 19C here. It's obscene, if it were 2pm I dare say it would be 25C!!!

Anyhow nice band of thundery rain in the west. Should see winds of 100kmh develop closer to 3am in Melbourne and squalls to 130kmh possible along the front. Doubt there will be hail on the front. But much colder by 6am. Should be 6-8C across Melbourne. Expecting around 5-15mm across Melbourne.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  DC449 on Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:51 pm

Set my alarm at 2:45, good time too??
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:03 pm

About right mate!!! I'm getting up about then.

Also a lot of mid level clod about.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Twister on Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:28 am

Well if you up dont worry still awhile away and only going to be a windy rain band should set in here after 5am back edge should be fun but will will dry alot of it up for us still few mms by sun up

cold pool behind has me more intrested

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:55 am

Band has thickened up significantly in the last hour...just started raining in Hallam now. Few heavy patches as well and it almost pushed up as far nth as Bendigo. So another stunning success, great to see.

Wind is really roaring too at least 80 km/hr and will be squally on the change you would think..
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:25 am

It doesn't look like us Western folk will get much out of this be lucky to get 2mm here its done everything possible to avoid us and just get the back edge which is the actual windchange oh well as long as we can make up for it in a few days time I'll be happy still..

Speaking of loving the latest Look of the models Sunday onwards especially EC great to see EC budge more to GFS scenario and go for a slow moving cut off low over the state Late Sunday to Wednesday next week looks like the type of scenario alot of us could actually get something decent & haven't seen in ages! The ironiy is it was EC a week ago that 1st had this cut off low I don't have figures infront of me but would say in the EC set up widespread of 20-50mm including Melbourne (odd heavier spot) of rain is almost a gurantee for most Southern and Mountain areas & 10-20mm up North & GFS backs it up.

We Need this to desperately come off as its been a shocker of a year out here which is putting it mildly and have a gut feeling after early next week we will enter an extended dry and very mild period for this time of the year (El Nino type of set up)

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

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