Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  tizza on Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:37 am

here either john, and I'm surprised it's not lightning active. Light rain falling here
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:41 am

Bit of a hype this event I must admit for here anyway Tizza no hail, no thunder, the rain is just a smattering moderate at best nothing heavy about it, no real squall line, even the Northerly hours prior to this change coming through died down abit which I found odd. The Monday morning change 130am was better than this I must admit.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  tizza on Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:52 am

Identical here, well we're not that far from each other really, anyway the wind was extremely strong when I went to bed, but fizzled out big time. It did have the potential to rip thru but lost it's umph somewhere along the way confused
I'm not looking forward to this el nino set up that's predicted.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  tizza on Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:05 am

<1mm here, hopefully we can pick up some more from coldies if they eventuate later.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:51 am

People that set their alarm for 4am would be kicking themselves. Laughing

4mm here from little more than a band of patchy rain and showers, hardly any wind to speak of at the moment and even the temperature is not as low as I was expecting or models were progging at just 6C currently. That puts the snow level around 1500m hardly 900m as predicted.

Pathetic yet again but 4mm is still much better than 20C+ and 10% RH which we could be getting if we had a blocking high in the Tasman.

EC going out on its own with a major cut off developing over us with NE winds on Monday and hanging on to Wednesday which John also gave a mention to. From what I can gather, if this system comes off we should get big falls, 50mm+ I'd say for some parts and 25mm+ widespread, just a guess. EC I know is onto some decent totals already.

GFS has a much more benign setup IMO but still gives us 25-50mm in the south over the course of next week.

Really not a bad setup considering the general El Nino pattern.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Sniper on Fri Aug 07, 2009 5:27 am

Slept thru the alarm and looks like I didn't miss much... A bit of a fizzer, was hoping for a wicked squall line or a bit of Boom Crash Opera. Had a huge wind gust around 11.15pm, was the strongest one in years. Could hear it roaring and was surprised that nothing went snap. Digital signal on TV struggled.

Off to a wedding this arvo, excepting calmer conditions.

Hoping this cut-off scenario comes off guys.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 07, 2009 5:29 am

Some decent winds here but just garden variety, which is not a big deal.

Finished with 5mm. Showers now extending from the SW. Could see another 5mm in that stream.

Hopefully EC comes off now!!!
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Aug 07, 2009 5:30 am

Wild night in the Dandenongs. Winds gust over 40 knots for much of the night and a crazy 14.9C at our place at 2am. Temperature then dropped by about 6C with a good band of rain (with fog). Peak rainfall rate of 25mm/hr and 6mm to 6am.

Unfortunately.... the band move through rather quicker than I might have hoped but we should pick up some good showers today (there is a good field of showers on the thermal trough back through southwest Vic and with good SW flow these should push well inland.

Next week looks amazing - EC has widespread 50-100mm across southern Vic with the system still with us at day 10 (Sunday next week). This has the potential to be a very big system system for us (though it critically depends on the track of the low. Reckon this one needs a new thread...

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Fri Aug 07, 2009 5:40 am

Very windy last night, lost power at some stage after 1am, which caused some terrible pc problems, 6mm in the gauge here this morning.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Dez on Fri Aug 07, 2009 6:17 am

It got really windy then the wind died once the rain started for me scratch
It did get a bit heavy but was shorter and lighter than last time in my area.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 07, 2009 6:54 am

I must say that the timing of the cold air and showers coupled with a bit of heating could see showers become locally heavy with thunder for a few hours late morning into the arvo. Might be 5-10mm out east
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:21 am

Good morning all, yep agree this mornings front was a little disappointing, especially compared to the one earlier in the week. Think I got about 1-2mm looking at the gauge through the back window this morning.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Mantis on Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:29 am

Well that was a non event eh

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:49 am

I guess the question is, do we expect any level of intensity from the moisture moving up from the south west. Predictions are for what little rain thats about to clear up by around midday. Are the models giving us anything to go by at all in the short term?
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  cim85 on Fri Aug 07, 2009 8:49 am

Extremely heavy hail rattling my colourbond roof here in Drouin West as I type this - I will grab a gauge total later today - has been reasonably heavy rain here on and off since 5am this morning.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  cim85 on Fri Aug 07, 2009 8:55 am

I now have a cell approaching from the west with CG's and rumbles.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Fri Aug 07, 2009 8:57 am

Had some Semi decent rain here on and off four about 30 minutes now. Enough to drop a couple of mm looks like we could have a bit of this over the next hour.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 07, 2009 9:03 am

My take:

Showers mainly eastern and southern suburbs with hail easing this evening. Chance of a thunderstorm. 14C
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  AmaroK on Fri Aug 07, 2009 9:07 am

Thats a short and sweet prognosis there Karl. Not sure about the hail or thunderstorms. But should be regular short showers for eastern areas for the next couple of hours. Sorry Karl, i cant be as optimistic as you are Very Happy
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:51 am

Chance means that I'm not saying there will be thunderstorms, it is merely a description of how unstable the atmosphere is. Today there is support for it. I have had hail twice today.

Next line looking very squally. Should be the last of it for most. Already lost part of the back fence with the last line. 45 knot gusts in the last 3mm shower.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  dagget on Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:52 am

Great bit of rain for us this morning, 10mm so far today.

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Lily on Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:55 am

Whoa! Just started getting slammed by the line coming through the se suburbs! Wind is very, very gusty, things are flying about and the rain is pelting down!

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Lily on Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:56 am

And now it's hailing bounce

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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 07, 2009 12:00 pm

Very heavy squally hail shower here
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Fri Aug 07, 2009 12:01 pm

Yep. thats Hail Blowing onto my verandah.
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Re: Victoria: Strong Cold Front. August 6th-8th 2009

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