Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Aug 09, 2009 3:42 pm

Forecasts may have down graded but EC and GFS have upgraded so wouldn't be too concerned. Still reckon (about) 20mm is a good bet for Melbourne between now and Friday (and 20-40mm in Ferny Creek). This is entirely consistent with patchy rain forecast for the next two days in central areas.

Also some prospects for a very wet spell on Wednesday morning in central/west Gippsland areas with the low now progged to cross into Bass Strait through south Gippsland. There is the potential for a short lived wrap around event so worth keeping a close eye on it.

Sky has a really milky look ATM - wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots of rain very soon up here. GFS suggests a couple of mm's overnight for us.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Aug 09, 2009 4:22 pm

Hey DJ hmm never thought GFS really downgraded this morning mate both 12z and 18z runs it had 20mm+ for this event as it does again this afternoon for Central Vic in the 00z run. Its EC by the look of it which keeps going up and down and the BOM forecasts tend to follow

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Aug 09, 2009 5:04 pm

I'm really quite worried about this system. Moisture levels are fine, instability is there with good upper level support. The uncertainty is in the fine detail and just where the most solid and heaviest rain will form and which way it will track. This low looks small and compact to me and the dynamics required for significant rain to develop will not affect everywhere.

Of course you have a better chance near hills and ranges, and near the coast if any wrap-around comes through but as David mentioned in an earlier post it will be a frustrating case of watching the radar and heavy rainfall inching agonisingly slowly towards you or around you whilst other areas are under it for extended periods of time.

This is why strong cold fronts and major cut off lows are best, everyone usually ends up getting something decent out of it. In this sort of setup where it's a bit of a mess I get worried.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Dane on Sun Aug 09, 2009 5:15 pm

Yeah not looking that good for this week i think. Airmass is very dry, maybe 5 to 10mm's at best for the Melbourne area in the next five days, would be surprised if we get more than that.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Aug 09, 2009 5:36 pm

The airmass will be dry to begin tonight and tomorrow morning but as the day progresses and we get into Tuesday and Wednesday the air won't be dry infact be very moist and feed off itself as the low moves very slowly across as long as were on the southern and Western side of this low come Tuesday and Wednesday the humidity be high and moisture will be high not just on the surface either but in the uppers as well. I'll be surprised if we get 5 to 10mm out of this. I generally expect 10mm+ but more likely 20mm up this way.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Mantis on Sun Aug 09, 2009 6:54 pm

Dunno about rain and not excited at all now, with this one. But at least it kills off chances of frost which is good.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Johnno on Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:16 pm

My rainfall estimations for this event next few days...

Mallee 2-8mm
Wimmera 5-15mm
Northern Country 8-15mm
South West 10-20mm
North Central 10-30mm
Central/Melbourne 10-30mm
West Gippsland 10-25mm
East Gippsland 5-20mm
North East 10-30mm
NE ranges 20-40mm


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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:42 pm

Well been out controlling ferals and thought I would stay out shooting till it started to rain......well got tired and still no rain so I gave up. Not looking like till early morning till we get anything now and looking like close to bugger all from it IMO. Hope I am wrong but it should be building if we were going to get much but if anything it is weakening as it comes across

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:30 am

Yeah 2nd thoughts I think it will be a struggle for the Mallee Anthony in picking up 5mm+ doesn't look to flash up there.


Looks reasonable for us down here EC to me seems to be moving it slower again than last nights run this low and tracks it slowly SE or SSE towards Flinders island Wednesday which is good for us here I think still think 20mm here is a fair assesment. What others think?

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:21 am

Yep Johnno 20mm would be fair, parts of Gippsland may get higher on a wrap around but again all speculative as to where the Low positions itself...

Melb should also see 20mm in total, but that would be a stretch and some of Melbourne will see less than that i think. Unless it changes in the next 24 hours i cant see us getting more than that.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:22 am

Looking like that rain to our north and west will move in throughout Melbourne over the next hour and will be initially light but it will increase later on.

Suspect 5-10mm for the region today.

Still a fairly wet outlook!!
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:52 am

0.4mm overnight from about 3 hours of rain in Ferny Creek. Quite miserable outside now with rain and low dewpoints making it feel very cold.

BTW the upper trough is starting to fire back through SA and I would expect rain to thicken up through central areas as the day goes on as the low level winds tend more easterly and upslide strengthens.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Luken on Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:00 am

I have no idea what to expect from this. Has been drizzling with a few heavier drops over the last hour, but looking at the radar is is passing over us after hitting the Macedon Ranges as it quite often does from these setups.

Either way I am not too fussed, im just gonna let it happen and be greatfull for anything I get here. Be nice for the catchments to get a drink though, as Karl and others have said the catchments are actually wet by now so if they do cop 20mm+ there might actually be some run off!
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:22 am

Just virga passing over here, the odd drop but not enough to dampen anything. Looks like a bit better stiff coming into Vic now but I reckon it will do the same as the rest a weaken as it comes across.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:27 am

Hi Luke

Yeah your right on there re: catchments. The catchmentd and cold and wet and doesn't need much additional rainfall to get things running. They actually lay in a good spot for this week as things go ESE then SE. I would expect 30-50mm out there this system.

The cloud deck needs to lower for more consistent falls.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  dagget on Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:44 am

Dunno about you guys but we sure are getting rain, woke up about 5.30 to rain on the roof and still going now not heavy but nice and steady, looks like 4mm for us so far today and still only 4 degrees C.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  dagget on Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:11 am

Typical, you make a post and then the rain stops. Still cold mind you 6.8 degrees.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:37 am

Looks liek this stuff is still weakening as it comes across. Nearly sun out here now so will haver to hope the low centre goes south of us and be lucky enought o get a heavy shower out of it. Otherwise we will have nothing to measure. Hope next one is better but by the looks of it, it will be windy and we don't do well out of those ones.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 10, 2009 11:27 am

I'm not willing to suggest the rain or this system is over until the low moves through to the SE. The real rain sits back on the western border and that should thicken as it spreads east.

Lots of low and mid level cloud developing.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:02 pm

Really starting to fire through SA, hopefully it doesnt go through to the North and moves SE..at the very least W Gippsland should go ok...possibly Central and N Central might go ok too.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Luken on Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:18 pm

Radar is looking a bit better for the next few hours, but reckon it will still be light and probably miss here. The west burbs may get a few mm into the evening.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  floydlove on Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:15 pm

Thanks guys, it is nice to be back. Smile

Still sticking with my 20mm for Melb areas for the week, I think it should hold. It's good to see healthy discussion up and running again.

Who got this forum up and going? (I know I'm behind, be nice to be filled in.) Wink

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:28 pm

This is a slow mover and I think you will be suprised come morning that most areas of Melbourne would have had 5-15mm of rainfall. This is due to the developing easterly upslide which DJ spoke of this morning which is being represented on the surface as light easterly winds. Looking particularly showery into Wednesday/Thursday AM with a SSW flow kicking around that low, but that could easily be more SSE for a period which could see rain and showers focus more of the northern and western suburbs.

And remember that the rain developing now, is ahead of the activity on the border so it could be a fair period of light to moderate rain which will accumulate over time.

I would think this band will continue to increase and thicken over the coming 6hrs.

Next weekend looking huge but further assessment required.

Chance of a few afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow too.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:56 pm

Looks like a small thundery line just passed through Mildura. Looks like they are very short lived though and only lightning active for an hour or so. There are some radar returns coming down but it is virga still and if we get more than a mm or 2 I would be pleased. When is this low supposed to start tracking south?

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:58 pm

Rain thickening up nicely on radar ATM stretching right back to the border. Not heavy but should be quite persistent. As the system moves east the rain will focus on its southern side where the easterlies/northeasterlies are upsliding.

EC now puts us into a convergence SW for 48 as the low passes through (bit of a change from yesterday's SE flow).

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

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