Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:32 pm

NNE winds through Kilmore area still while SE winds now through the Northern suburbs converging helping to build the rain just NW of Melb now

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:29 pm

Light steady rain up here in the Dandenongs now. Up to ~0.8mm for the event so far Rolling Eyes

Central Vic looks to be the prime spot for rain the next 12 hours as that where the upslide is now focusing.

GFS and EC are both hinting at a wrap around for east central/south Gippsland Wed/Thur. The low looks like winding up a bit when it hits Bass Strait. With such a slow moving system it's so dependent on the details but the GFS scenario could see some heavy falls for a period Question

PS The weekend is now looking very interest with a very ridge/trough moving through the southeast.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:38 pm

Very 'slow moving' ridge/trough you meant to say David?
I am much more interested in that system than this one to tell the truth. Give me a massive, solid, slow moving rain band with embedded thunder any day over this sort of setup.

I seriously don't like these messy slow moving systems with patchy rain everywhere but here, (the norm these days Rolling Eyes ). We did get a few mm here today apparently (it was raining this morning and a shower came through this evening around 6pm. I'll have to check the gauge soon. Hopefully we can get lucky here tonight and get some half decent falls but I have very low confidence.

EDIT: Interesting to note 4C temps this morning here (520m asl) and light rain. Almost could have fallen as snow right up the top of Mount Macedon.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  dagget on Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:48 pm

My thoughts as well seeing 4C and lots of rain. Radar is, well, interesting, rain everwhere but conviently dodges the ranges, ho hum hopefully something will develop soon! You are right 4mm up till about 9.30 this morning then a few drops around 4-5pm.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  mick on Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:08 pm

A nice brief band of light rain crossing me now sounds nice. Good old fashioned spring weather the last week and this weekend.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:54 pm

The rain looks pretty solid and steady at the moment on the radar, whereas this morning it was very light and the heavy spots moved around a lot.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:51 pm

Very, very patchy this stuff coming down and falling apart away from the coast, all I can see is gaps everywhere.

Just have to desperately hope that this weekend comes off, this system is merely a bit of a distraction the way it's going atm.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  DC449 on Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:53 pm

Well nice and wet here
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Twister on Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:55 pm

Had some light rain before but stopped now and looks like awhile before its gets under way again.

West of the bay looks good but still it not as heavy as it looks

This low just dont have a major Moisture source hence the low falls highest falls have been in the Sw with up to 8mm in a few places

Showery night but dont think there be more than 5mm by morning, if it was a weak slow moving low with a nice infeed there be easy 20mm falls from this

Still rain will increase over central areas but still it will be light, and mostly moved out by lunch tomorrow

East tassie and Gippy looking good though, and staying Dry in the N NW Sad

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:01 pm

I was never really keen on this one. Moisture is OK but of course no major in feed with this sort of system, it is just a very weak little cut off.

I'm starting to trust the BOM when the senior forecaster on the radio says 'only about 1mm today and 2-5mm tomorrow' like they did on 3LO early this morning. Even tonight in the latest run GFS wants to give us 10mm widespread through central VIC. Sure it may still happen overnight or even tomorrow but from what I can gather from satellite and radar it is a real long shot. Some places near the coast and NE ranges probably will see a few 10mm+ falls but as for MElbourne and surrounds can't see it widespread. Just a few mm really.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:06 pm

I see a very nice yellow/orange rain on the BOM radar at the moment.
I'm starting to get some heavier falls going aswell. Quite short though at the moment, but's the showers heading my way are developing.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:08 pm

Actually ended up with 5mm today which is very surprising but that's what's in the gauge so I guess I can't complain seeing most falls have only been 1 or 2mm so far.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:32 pm

Well sweet FA up here out of this. Was talking to a friend in Mildura and there was a virgaish shower up there but nothing to measure. So very dissapointing for the NW out of this. Low was too far N and moisture must have only interacted E and S of here. Hoping next weekend will be better but sceptical of it too.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Aug 11, 2009 4:25 am

This system is quickly becoming a fiasco only 0.8mm here and 0.6mm CBD.
Had a bad gut feeling about it since 10am yesterday and hasn't left me ever since didn't like it and its starting to show why. Revised my total here from 20mm on the weekend to 10mm yesterday morning to 5mm max now for this system here.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 11, 2009 5:23 am

Well given the current dynamics I am glad it rained and there is a little more to come. Just on 2mm here overnight and perhaps 2-3mm today.

Got to wait for the onshore kick.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Aug 11, 2009 5:35 am

Yeah bit of a fizzer so far - obvious problem has been the dry low levels which have really limited rainfall despites some nice synoptics. Strikes me that we are seeing the influence of El Nino on our systems now with this being the second major fizzer for the northerly part of the "rain event". 1.9mm overnight in Ferny Creek.

That said - the radar shows some very nice showers now racing in from the northeast which are edging south. This should continue today as the low drifts south and then eventually the winds flip to west/southwest. I reckon there is very good prospects in this sequence - I would not at all be suprised to see 20-40mm in Ferny Creek by Thur evening.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 11, 2009 5:53 am

The rainfall is definitely in the cross/onshore flow from tomorrow afternoon.

Watch for the potential of thunderstorms inland and near the trough this afternoon and tomorrow.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Dez on Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:10 am

Well looking at the BOM predictions, they've upgraded their rainfall totals for today Neutral

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:10 am

Bugger all out here as the flow last night was more focused around the western side of the bay. Loving this stream going over Eildon, however at a great rate of knots. Who knows what we will get today, but it wont be a boring sunny day Very Happy

Karl, lets hope your storm call comes true!!

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:26 am

Wes I will say keep your camera on standby as we are a small chance in Melbourne. Y
The flow is right for us just a matter of it developing.
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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Dez on Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:33 am

It seems like the showers are breaking down when it gets closer to the CBD and then develop again after they've past it.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:35 am

BOM have just amended their forecast.

Forecast for the rest of Tuesday
Cloudy. Patchy rain and the chance of a thunderstorm, more likely over northern and eastern areas. Mainly easterly winds up to 25 km/h..
City: A little rain. Chance of a storm. Max15

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:42 am

18Z GFS just released. Points to some reasonable -LI's north of the ranges this afternoon. Late afternoon in an area between say Bendigo to the N/E border looks a strong possibility. Jake - Would appreciate if you could look at the BOM TS forecast chart as I don't have access to it at home Sad

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Dane on Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:44 am

3mm's overnight here in Cranbourne, looks like a bit more today maybe another 2 or 3mm's i think.

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Re: Victoria: Low pressure System and Rain event. August 9th-15th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:14 am

Fairly heavy showers here.

I think any storms that develop will be more lightning active than anything. They will be originating from the mid levels, so rainfall will not be huge, but if enough develop as they decay they could form an OK rainband.
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