Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

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Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:07 am

Looks like another wave of westerly winds, frequent cold fronts and showery conditions with the potential for thunder coming in the next week or so. The last lot of weather embedded within was rather productive for the south but not so for the north, as frontal activity was strictly coastal. This next wave looks a little further north so some precip may make it over the divide on each front.

Southern areas will fair best. Getting a bit warm ahead of the first two fronts so thunder is possible on both of those but cooling beyond Wednesday with strong and gusty NW to SW winds.

Thoughts???

Nothing very traditional about this westerly anymore.


Last edited by Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:55 pm; edited 3 times in total (Reason for editing : I think the system needs it's own thread after the severity)
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:44 am

I have never been a fan of windy weather giving us rain. Never seems to work out esp with westerly winds. Hope I am wrong but that has been the result in the last 10 years anyway. Woke up this morning to the thickest fog I have seen up here for a long time. Visibility would be about 50m atm! Pea souper out there.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 13, 2009 1:52 pm

Looks like the latest US has downgraded somewhat from this mornings run but it is the first time it has done this in it's sequence. LAPS looks OK with 5-10mm on Sunday morning but that is determined in my mind by how strong the NNW winds are ahead of this upcoming system.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:14 pm

Anything is possible when storms are involved. Models are not great at picking up convective rainfall more than a day out IMO, a lot of it depends on the dynamics on the day. I am thinking a multicell feature with the front on Sunday looks alright or even some pre frontal thundery showers ahead of a solid band of thundery rain. Goodbye winter, spring is here with a vengeance.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:44 am

My initial thoughts from yesterday..

A new thread for the coming event. Looks like a very sharp warm-up in Saturday with temperatures well into the 20s across the southeast followed by a very sharp front on sunday morning.

This event should see it all. Warmth, strong winds, a strong front, rain, hail and thunder then some reasonably low level snow. Should be some very healthy rainfall along the ranges, coast and west (would rule out the odd 25mm+) but likely that central areas will be rain shadowed.

And today...

GFS seems to have upgraded this morning with fairly widespread 10-25mm falls for Sun/Mon. EC looks OK but sets up a situation which is likely to give a severe rainshadow for much of central Vic. LAPS has a ripper of a system with the trough slowing down over Vic on Sunday and sharpening up with a good rainband developing.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:41 am

Just had a quick look at the temperatures ahead of this front. EC has 850Ts of 14C over Gippsland Saturday night and the touching 16C in the far north-west. IF this was summer those numbers would see low to mid 30s but with a cooler sun we won't get there. Still wouldn't rule out a run at 30C in the far northwest.

We are a chance for some early season record... Some to watch are

Melbourne - 23.1C is the current record (post solstice - set in July) while the early August record is 21.7C
Melbourne - August min record is 16.2C (the two things countering this record are that tomorrow may start off coolish and we could get some rain pre 9am on Sunday)
Mildura - 28.6C

The source region for this heat - central Australia - has been showing some extremely hot conditions for Winter - Alice Spring has had three 32s in a role (against a site record of 34C).

PS The all Australian maximum temperature anomaly for August is running warmest on record showing how much excess heat resides over central Australia.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 14, 2009 7:06 am

I think expect little in South Central VIC with 110kmh northerly winds. LAPS scenario is the best prospects. Westerlies look pretty strong too following the change and coastal storms are likely.

Further fronts look to follow and they look windy and fairly showery. But ahead of these fronts is record heat potential. This could set the Ag areas back a bit if rain does not accompany the changes.

Fingers crossed snow follows or it could be a short season.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Luken on Fri Aug 14, 2009 7:24 am

Well I certainly got a little excited this morning looking at the models. Big upgrade from yesterday on all GFS, GASP and LAPS. With the system only 48 hours away, I am liking the look.....BUT....As KARL and other have said those strong winds quite often cause a shodow effect, but this thing I notice is that all the models mentioned above have the predominate flow coming from the WSW or in LAPS case SW, rather than the usual problem directions (for here) of NW, or WNW.

So I certainly like what I see, but give it 36 hours and I might be crying in my Weeties.....

Edit: Ahh so I went back and looked at the 6 hour time steps for the model from Sunday and now I see the big shift in wind direction from the NW to the WSW or SW.........sorry still learning these things...But looks like it could be a ripper of a change with the big thermal gradient.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Aug 14, 2009 9:13 am

No rainshaddow effect up here just blows it all south! Too much wind and we will see bugger all rain up here but the warmer temps infront of it may cause a line of storms with the change. If we can get get away with winds no stornger than say 25kmh we may get some but by all accounts they will be a bit stronger than that. Also depends on how much moisture there is in the centre. Not much methinks

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Fri Aug 14, 2009 9:23 am

My personal view on it 1-5mm here and City 4-10mm Eastern suburbs. Better rain in the NE Vic and SW Vic very little elsewhere unless a line of storms develops too.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 14, 2009 11:31 am

It will be interesting to see whether LAPS keeps the rainfall up in this afternoon run. Could be very productive if the bulk of the rain develops behind the wind change and as DJ said, if the trough slows.

Need the models to come on board.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Aug 14, 2009 11:45 am

Johnno I reckon you'll be close. Would be very surprised to see more than 10-20mm even in the Dandenongs. The system is too fast and too westerly for my liking.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:22 pm

I would agree with you John.. I think those totals are pretty spot on with this moderate to whole gale setting up across the state.

LAPS has continued to slow the system up not bringing it through to post 9am. This could see a line of thunderstorms develop on the wind change and also deliver us our warmest night on record for August. Time will tell.

Noticed Adelaide have spiked the max to 27C tomorrow which is just insane! I think with the dynamic thermal gradient developing in our region as Luke was talking about this morning, thunderstorms are a fair chance. If the rain can come with and following the change then I think we may be looking at falls of 15-20mm right throughout and the rain shadow could be abolished. I think though in this situation I am clutching at straws Sad

Melbourne should top out at 23C tomorrow.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  mick on Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:34 pm

Melbourne used to get n/w winds as the predominant wind in winter until the 80s. Westerlies used to bring rain, we always used to get adelaides weather a day later.

Winter is now more of a northerly, Westerlies are dry and we only get adelaides weather the next day in summer, but not as a rule like it used to be.

The highs over centralia have been dipping, bulging, forming, and stretching furher souoth for years now.

Livinnia just told us that the alice has had te warmest 4 days since the 1940s.

Theres no snow melt to speak of this year and theres no rain in sight.

It looks like being hotter and drier than last summer. All the trees have blossomed early by a few weeks and the wattles are out a month early, lots of birds making nests, this aint winter anymore.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:40 pm

Everyday we have a family or flock of Magpies in our backyard circling me for food. There was atleast 20 there today. I had to throw rocks to get out the back door!!!!

I think we are working our way towards a record early 30C day. Mark my words - September!!

Then I think really good rain late Oct into early Dec, then drying out before XMAS. I must say that has been the pattern over the past few years.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  mick on Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:42 pm

You know, I was only thinking the other day that I have never seen so many magpies. As long as I dont see em on the MCG in september I be happy.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:30 pm

Looks like the Alice fell 1.3C short of it's August record today (maybe tomorrow? - there are some dodgie higher obs from the 1800s but these were taken under very dubious conditions). The guidance I have seen suggest nearly all of SA will get close to an early season high tomorrow - so amazingly hot air. If this occurred in two weeks then it would be 30s all round.

Low 20s looks a pretty good bet for Melbourne tomorrow. Wouldn't rule out a 25, but the warmest air looks like coming through too late and the morning may well start out cloudy with a few sprinkles (this is actually quite common on days when you get very strong warm air advection establishing in the morning). Will then be a very very warm night - though the rain/front will be pretty close to 9am so might bring the temperature down. Can't see much in this for Melbourne (unless the front slows like LAPS suggests) but the west, coast and northern slopes should do ok.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  rikjpool on Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:32 pm

A nice rainbow last night on sunset stayed around for about 30-40min. Just long enough to get aout 100 photo's or so.
Very Happy



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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:43 pm

Stunning pictures Rik. The funny thing is that we will be replacing those skies with windy, dry and warm weather tomorrow.

Spring has sprung.

DJ, I fear that you may be right re: rainfall for Melbourne. LAPS really is the wildcard, but I somehow think it has not factored in the rain shadow as yet.

Look for wild winds on the change Sunday if the rain is absent in Melbourne.
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Aug 14, 2009 7:08 pm

Worth noting that this winter we have had no cold outbreaks of any significance which is unprecedented. I don't remember one deep southerly airflow at all, most of the changes have been W/SW and carrying relatively mild air over us. Of course in this scenario you would expect unprecedented heat build up over central Australia with no significant cold air making it up there for the entire season I guess.

Probably one for the climatology section but one of the major changes in climate I am noticing is this lack of southerly winds coming through and a massive bias towards W/NW airflow. Something I never remember being a part of our climate, it was accepted that a period of NW winds would be followed by a period of SW or S winds at regular intervals. A big reason IMO for the crazy scale of warming down here relative to what has happened globally. If the globe has warmed around 1C, we have warmed around 3C I reckon and rapidly approaching 4C just from what I make of the monthly obs over recent years.

Wind has already picked up here but not bringing down the warm air yet with just 8C atm.

From what I'm hearing with the gale force northerlies we should probably do OK here, doing the rain shadowing rather than being rain shadowed. Razz
Should be heaps cooler than Melbourne too (we usually are in strong NW winds), probably around 6C cooler so probably 17C here tomorrow (still ridiculous for mid August).

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  norfolk on Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:38 pm

there seem to be storms to the south of South Australia, will they move down towards Tassie overnight?

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:00 am

Very blowie out there already with gusts over 30 knots here in the hills. Few showers on radar - some heading direct for Melbourne (hat tip to the EC model which picked this up). May get a sprinkle yet Question before the spring warmth.

Not much to add - looks like the best rain will be on the northern slopes and west and coastal strip. LAPS is still most optimistic. BTW there is actually two trough tomorrow - one early and another very late. The second one should see a second burst of weather/showers overnight into Monday - both GFS and EC have up to to 5-10mm on the second trough through the south.

While I'm not very hopeful for this system, couple of things worth watching. There is some very good mid level moisture in place over the bight ahead of this system (which can be seen on the water vapour image) - precipitable water values up to 25mm. This actually trails north right up to near the Alice so there is actually some reasonable moisture available for the cloud band to form. I think the key to rain is for the front to slow a little bit and set up more northerly blow (rather than northwesterly).

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  windyrob on Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:37 am

Hey folks I figured it was time to join!
This winter is a big contrast to last winter when there was a big high over WA directing cold but dry southwesterlys all winter. there was a meter of snow at lake mountain and Mt hotham didn't get over 0 deg for 40 days strait. That patten killed us in spring though as no moisture was being dragged down from the tropics. This year is the complete opposite. Plenty of moisture being bought down (except for that recent big high) but no trigger. I'm hoping this spells for a wet spring as the Indian ocean looks like it might be going our way for the first time in a few years.
By the way of record warmth, does anyone remember the hot spell at the end of august a few years ago. I had some friends at falls creek when it got to 21C at falls in august Shocked They could literally see the snow melting in front of their eyes over the course of a the day!
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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  Nick Sykes on Sat Aug 15, 2009 9:24 am

Hey Guys

A few drops of rain here this morning in Chadstone this morning. Looking at the coming 48hrs there does appear some potential for rain. Models are a bit touch and go with the local model of LAPs wanting to give us some rain. Hopefully the front can stand up a bit more and keep the moisture availiable.

Looks like a warm windy night coming up, pitty the warmest air is not coming through during the day, could have seen some very warm temps for August.

Take Care

Nick

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Aug 15, 2009 9:48 am

Well, it will certainly be a ridiculously warm night although it should drop a bit pre 9am with the cloud and rain coming through. Very thankful to see the blast of warm air still over eastern SA atm. The last thing we need is rapid evaporation whilst we are still in winter, the land is dry enough as it is.

13.4C here atm. I would still imagine Melbourne could get to 23C today although taking it's time with the warm air not really here yet.

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Re: Victoria: Record Warm/Severe Cold Front August 15th-August 17th 2009

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