Record Breaking August Heat

Not sure where to put this - but this August is now shaping up as the hottest on record for Australia with phenomenal heat across large areas. Just to show how widespread it is Birdsville had it warmest day on record on Saturday (36.4C) while Melbourne had it warmest night on record (15.5C). The extreme heat will continue for the whole week - a little less today but building - particularly in central parts where the forecast call for temperature 10-15C above average

I think it fits here DJ, it's significant and breaking

Yes I think we may see some very warm weather continue right through into early spring. I wouldn't be surprised if Melbourne scored it's earliest 30C day on record this season. However I don't think we will see diminished rainfall at this time. Fast moving, tight pressure gradients and long northerly fetches courtesy of strong fronts is what is helping this weather occur. Nothing scientific about that forecast, just my instinct. Time will tell if that is out of order

But enjoy the snow while it is there....

It's certainly widespread. On the news last night they were showing people flocking to Bondi yesterday, they had to call in extra lifeguards.

From Elders:

Breaking Weather News - Heat records dropping in NT, Queensland and NSW
Brett Dutschke, 16 August 2009


Record August heat has been affecting parts of the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales this weekend with temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s, as much as 14 above average.

Alice Springs has had its longest run of 30-degree days in 68 years of August records, a total of seven. A cooler change moved through on Sunday afternoon. Monday's maximum will be about average, 23.

Further east, Cunnamulla in the Queensland Maranoa, broke a 102 year August record on Sunday by reaching 34 degrees, 13 above average. Elsewhere in southern Queensland, Thargomindah and St George also broke records a little over a decade old by peaking at 35 and 33 degrees respectively.

In NSW on Sunday, Lightning Ridge, Bourke and Walgett and Bega all broke August records which were at least 10 years old.

On Monday the extreme heat will be forced across to northeastern NSW and southeastern Queensland by gusty northwesterly winds ahead of a cooler change. A few thunderstorms will also form near the change and may generate damaging winds.

The change has been raising dust over a large area of western and northern NSW and western Queensland, reducing visibility in Birdsville to 1000 metres on Sunday.

Looks like a bit of an easing in the heat today - most notable warmth I've noticed is back through parts of WA where Balgo Hills has seen 34C today which is 2C off a record.

By Friday this warmth spreads right across subtropical Australia with near record temperatures forecast in place such as Alice Spring (33C) through to southwest Queensland.

Quite a long northwest fetch on the weekend could see temps spike to 22-25C across VIC again - depending on the timing of fronts and cloud cover.

Looking very windy and this could spike fire dangers and possibly bans for many areas of inland Australia!!

I think northern NSW and QLD are the places to watch. Both states would have to be a chance for a record high August temperature.

Karl Lijnders wrote:I think it fits here DJ, it's significant and breaking

Yes I think we may see some very warm weather continue right through into early spring. I wouldn't be surprised if Melbourne scored it's earliest 30C day on record this season. However I don't think we will see diminished rainfall at this time. Fast moving, tight pressure gradients and long northerly fetches courtesy of strong fronts is what is helping this weather occur. Nothing scientific about that forecast, just my instinct. Time will tell if that is out of order

But enjoy the snow while it is there....

Karl or anyone, what is Melbourne's earliest 30c? And I wonder what Mildura's earliest 30c is as well!

Tony

For Melbourne, 30.1C on 19th September 2006 is the one you're looking for Tony.

For Mildura, officially it looks to be the 1st September, 1982 when it reached 31.4C.
However, 30th August 2007 missed out by just 0.1C.

I think we will see Melbourne's record go but Mildura will be touch and go. If we got Mildura's on the weekend just gone, that would of been outrageous!!!

Renmarks 29C was insane!

Interesting that Alice Springs has 34C for a forecast on Friday. Given the elevation that is the equivalent of 40C at sea level. 34C is the current record

Progs suggests that we may flush the heat out of the centre mid next week - so Vic may miss out on the worst of it (but further north its a very different story).

PS just notice EC has a deepening easterly dip through WA next week - looks like a heat low The pattern looks like a November one....

An amazing forecast for Alice Spring which has a current record of 34.0C. Is very rare to see a record temperature forecasted but 3 days in a row must be unheard of. With the current sequence it would be a fair chance the the all OZ record of 40.0C for August will fall in the next week.

Precis: Fine, warm and sunny.
Alice Springs Min 13 Max 33
UV Alert 9:40 am to 3:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Friday Fine, warm and sunny. Min 14 Max 34
Saturday Fine, hot and sunny. Min 14 Max 35
Sunday Fine, hot and sunny. Min 15 Max 35

but still no exceptional warmth this far south. Maybe thats a good thing!

33.2C in the Alice Today... just 0.8C off the record. Going for 1C better tomorrow.

Its just insane, 45 is the new 38.

Note the media is warning everyone of a terrible summer and its August. Please let there be no repeat of last summer. The September gales arrived in August once again, as I predicted in July We are on track for more of the same I fear, it doesnt look good.

I have concluded the magpies bred very early as they know it wil be a hard summer for young. No reports of ducks nesting high up banks etc this year, infact none of the "bush" signs for rain this winter spring at all.

2007, was a tease, 2008 a nightmare, 2009 will be worse.

If this Melbourne weather was in summer I think we would have just had about 4 days in 3 weeks over 43 and maybe of couple of them in excess of 45. The NW airflow days are normally occasional and now they seem frequent. If the Alice has high temps through summer and we are getting that air, what is to say more records won't be broken in the 2009/10 summer?

This coming straight from Climatologist Blair Trewin..



Of the long-term stations I track, the following ones have set heat records during this event so far:

Tarcoola (33.5, 15th)
Mackay (29.8, 14th)
Birdsville (36.4, 15th - and higher still today but no final number)
Thargomindah (34.7, 16th)
Alice Springs (34.7, 21st)

This isn't a huge list but I expect it to grow considerably in the coming days. At this stage we're planning to put out a national statement around Tuesday.

This year has been just one record after another. Most Australian's don't realise that the current dose of record heat goes all the way back through July into June across most of northwest Australia. Add Jan and Feb in the south and there has been more months with records or near record heat than without BTW Birdsville broke it's August record again today and will probably break it again tomorrow.

It now looks likely that Victoria will see its warmest winter on record for 2009 and OZ it's second warmest (behind 2005). Don't imagine too many people now need convincing that something is seriously up with Australia's "climate".

BTW keep close eye on both the far NW of WA and SW QLD for the Australian August record of 40.0C to fall over the weekend.

Huge number of records falling with event now with more falling right at this very moment. Alice Spring, Tarcoola, St George, Longreach, Armidale, Toowoomba, Oakey have all broken records, many by large margins. The QLD record of 38.3C This event in terms of the extent of records broken and the margins is shaping up as bigger than Feb 7. That two 1 in 100+ year heat event in 6 months

Will compile a list of record (well actually Blair will) on Monday/Tuesday.

Thanks to BT...

I'm not going to try to post a full list of records here - too many to count. I am expecting that we will be releasing a Special Climate Statement around Wednesday (one guess what I'll be doing at work tomorrow [Smile] ) which will have all the numbers in detail, and I expect there will be local media releases from Queensland as well.

The most impressive number I've seen to date is the 37 (rounded) at Taroom today, a record by around 4 degrees. There look to be multiple other locations, especially in the Queensland southern interior, which have gone 2-3 degrees beyond pre-2009 records.

As far as state/national records are concerned, the Australian record for August is 40.0 (Kalumburu), Queensland 38.3 (Normanton) and NSW 36.1 (Yamba, of all places). It doesn't look like the Queensland record has gone yet (highest yesterday was 38.1 at Bedourie, and Bedourie was the only place to report 38 on today's 3pm bulletin, although there was a swag of 37s), but the NSW one might have done (Mungindi 36 at 3pm), and will come under serious pressure again tomorrow.

To answer something else that came up earlier in this thread, in general this event has surpassed the 1995 one in southern inland Queensland, but not yet on the coast or in northern NSW. This may change tomorrow.

It's stating the obvious to say that monthly mean records will be broken in large numbers. The national August maximum anomaly is currently running at about +2.9, easily the highest on record for August and approaching the April 2005 record for any month.

Brisbane currently 34.9 . Amberley reached 36.4 earlier today.

One word - WOW!

There has been a HUGE number of records fall with this event. A full list will be released on Wednesday (and I wouldn't be surprised to see more tonight and tomorrow). Brisbane smashed its old record today by more than 2C. Some sites in NSW and southern QLD have broken long run records by more than 4C, and some sites (have broken the old daily record on 3 consecutive days).

BTW this event is far from over. It looks like extreme heat will redevelop across the entire subtropics later this week ahead of the next system - indeed in inland parts this could be even hotter in spots with temperatures approaching 40C

I heard that Evans Headland in NE NSW reached 37. A serious WTF!!!!

If you had asked a year ago could it get to 46.4C in Melbourne (or 47C+ in Melbourne's suburbs) in Feb and 100F in NSW in winter I would have said - no way. These events we are now seeing are getting beyond ones imagination....

Is only going to be time before one of these huge events (remembering we can also include April 2005 and March 2008) actually occurs at the peak of summer.

PS we are very lucky in Melbourne not to have seen a 30C+ in this event. It has just stayed westerly enough to keep the heat north of us.

Ironically enough we haven't even seen a 20c+ day yet in Melbourne this August and 4 out of 5 years we get to 20c easily these days in August and the year when heat records are being broken left right and centre up North we haven't seen 20c+ yet

Looks like more record heat today just north of Brisbane, but the event easing briefly.