Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

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Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 17, 2009 2:07 pm

Well seeing as there is a reasonable gap between the previous system and then next one I think we need to start a new thread.

Looking pretty warm the next few days with mild NW winds, not too strong. A weak cold front on Wednesday may clip the southern coastline and with daytime warmth could develop a few thundery showers later in the day into Thursday morning.

By Thursday the northerly flow increases and with the instability remaining from the previous front on Wednesday there will be isolated showers developing as daytime temps hit near record highs. Rain and isolated thunderstorms should develop in the west during the afternoon and spreading east at night with moderate falls about the ranges.

Friday looks like being rather wet at first over eastern half of the state with a clearing rainband but unstable westerly winds will mean showers will continue in the south with isolated thunderstorms near the coast. Locally heavy falls about the NE at first.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy with showers over the south and about the ranges but more widespread about the southwest. Isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Strong and gusty NW winds will continue.

Sunday another cold front will move into the west of the state during the afternoon. Strong to gale force NW winds will develop ahead of a westerly change later. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will develop throughout tending to showers later from the west. Local hail and thunder in the southwest at night. Locally heavy falls about the NE.

Beyond that it does looks fairly showery, windy and becoming colder. Perhaps some snow to steady the rate of decline.


Last edited by Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:08 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Just the magnitude of the event and the one coming next week)
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Aug 17, 2009 4:10 pm

Great outlook Karl, couldn't agree more, would have forecasted the same. Wink

I will add my own in as we get closer to the dates, but looking very promosing.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Aug 17, 2009 4:23 pm

All I got to say is Good forecasting Karl & Weclome back Jake Wink

Would add more in but don't have my thinking cap on at the moment as I am abit under the weather at the moment.. Have been told my the Doc today I have tonsilitous which is ironic considering I had my tonsils taken out when I was 7! Apparently you can still get this without them so feel rather weak, headaches and sore throat and swallowen glands in my throat but will be back properly to add my bit into the short term forecasting as soon as I'm better Smile

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 17, 2009 4:53 pm

Thanks John and Jake Smile

I now look at the charts and now I could rewrite the whole thing again, thanks to the timing shifting for each system... haha!!

Get better John... Must be the weather Wink
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 17, 2009 5:56 pm

Still a few days out but both EC and GFS have a significant rain event from late Wed->early Saturday with a moist-long fetch NW'ly ahead of a reasonable strength front. Looks like another very mild system (Jake lucky you were skiing last week!).

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  norfolk on Mon Aug 17, 2009 6:08 pm

So when are we going to crack to 20c temp this month guys?

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 17, 2009 6:52 pm

Seems like some very nice rain will be coming to melbourne for the next few days and possible week.

I noticed in your description that a lot of the days had possible thunderstorms meaning more storm photos to see Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 17, 2009 7:15 pm

Just looking at GFS and it looks very mild but not ridiculously warm for the coming week and after that we get a cold spell for once. Models will go up and down of course but it looks very promising atm for good follow up.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  windyrob on Tue Aug 18, 2009 5:45 am

And there is a bit of rain in central Aus, always a good sign for us when that happens!
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:08 am

Latest EC, LAPS and GFS look very promising for Thur to Sat. They show rain developing across Vic on Thursday and becoming widespread on Friday. The first front in the sequence on Wed night/Thursday slides away but is followed by a rather strong front around the middle of the day on Friday.

LAPS suggests the potential for some thunderies with Thursday's system with LI below 0 and getting as low as -2 Very Happy

Rainfall totals look reasonably healthy with 10-25mm across much of the south and west - would also anticipate some decent falls about the northeast ranges (though again this will be mainly rain rather than snow).

Next system following through on Sunday/Monday also looks very promising for rain in the southeast (and very warm conditions further north).

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 18, 2009 9:34 am

I think looking at the current prognostics, things are shaping up for a gloomy, wet and windy couple of days which is fine with me.

Updated from yesterday:

Wednesday will be fine and generally sunny throughout with a fresh to strong northerly winds developing in the south. Cloud will increase over the southwest where isolated showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon and possibly spreading to south central areas at night. The day will be mild to warm.

Thursday, northerly winds will increase ahead of the next cold front. Cloud will increase from the west with areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms developing and spreading to central areas later in the day. Isolated showers about the NE ranges will become scattered with the risk of late thunder ahead of the rainband. Locally moderate to heavy falls about the dividing range developing by nightfall. Mild

Friday the rain in central and eastern areas with locally heavy falls about the ranges will slowly contract eastwards. Showers will continue in the south with isolated thunderstorms near the coast but tend to contract back to the southwest coast during the day. Northwest to westerly winds will moderate and tend northerly later in the west. Cool to mild and mostly cloudy.

Saturday, northwest winds will increase ahead of the next front sliding in along the northwest flow. Showers in the southwest will extend to most regions, more isolated in the north, but tend to rain areas about the ranges and the southwest. Local thunder developing in the southwest later. Cool to mild.

Sunday northerly winds will strengthen ahead of the next cold front, with areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms developing in the far west during the morning and spreading slowly east through the afternoon to be in central areas late afternoon. Moderate to heavy falls about the NE ranges and some snow developing about the peaks. Fine in the far east and warm in foehn NW winds.

Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms over the state will begin to contract slowly eastwards on Monday with showers, local hail and thunder to follow in the southwest. Locally heavy falls over the NE ranges with snow developing down to 1400m. Strong and gusty northerly winds will shift colder westerly through the day.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 18, 2009 1:16 pm

Latest US has rainfall up to 50-100mm across a wide area of the state including all of Melbourne in the next week. Excludes the frontal activity that EC shows beyond Tuesday next week. Could this be the one??? I feel more confident abou it than a gypsy low!!! Razz
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Aug 18, 2009 1:19 pm

Looks promising Smile but I'll be happy with 15-20mm for the week I think 50mm or anything beyond that is far fetching and unrealitsic for this area but it isn't to say it won't be for other areas of Victoria or even Melbourne's Eastern suburbs.

Sent you a couple of sms's during the course of the day today Karl got them?

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 18, 2009 1:53 pm

LAPS and MLAPS has fairly widespread shower activtiy spreading along the front Wed/Thurs morning. Could be a little thundery in this period.

The LAPS has 15-25mm across western and central VIC coming into Thurs/Fri system which is supported by US. I think we may be turning the corner a little bit with rainfall if this comes off.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Aug 18, 2009 3:03 pm

Looking quite good the next week but what raises my eyebrow is the Thickness EC has over us next Wednesday with the colder air it has thickness of 5280 that equal to snow down to 500 metres guys? Would be great if it came off! Still a way off though

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 18, 2009 3:43 pm

US has a significant cold front a week from now with one serious gale and rainband developing. Falls of 30-50mm across a wide berth of the state. I think we will see this scale back but even half the intensity is a major system.

Something to watch.

In the short term, the rainband looks good for late week and I think we should see it start to form in convective activty tonight and through tomorrow on the satellite.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Luken on Tue Aug 18, 2009 3:58 pm

Does look good for the next couple of weeks. Been nice that we are still in a mobile weather pattern and that the blocking highs have stayed away for a while. If we could score 50mm+ in the next week for the catchments things would be looking up for sure. Just need the pattern to continue through September, unlike the last few years. Sure as hell are due for some wetter than average months.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Tue Aug 18, 2009 5:32 pm

Well both GFS and EC look great for the next week across the southeast.

Though - the most extraordinary thing about this sequence is the heat that gets drawn down over NSW/QLD. On Monday the 850T is progged to approach 20C just north of Sydney - that is an extraordinary air mass and if it were to eventual could see August records broken by big margins. Of course... that's all in model land but even so it's going to be summer like in winter Rolling Eyes

Back to this system - looks like patchy rain on Thursday becoming widespread and possibly heavy on Friday ahead of a strong front (late morning through central areas). Behind the front 850T drop to about -1C which should be cold enough for some decent coldies with hail and snow down to around 1000m.

Another front to follow early next week which also looks very promising for rain.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Tue Aug 18, 2009 6:10 pm

Yes the next week and a bit is looking very good, and here are my prospects and take on things...

Wednesday: Fine and mostly sunny across the state at first with north to northwesterly winds strengthening during the day as the pressure gradient becomes tighter and as a weak cold front approaches the state. Cloud will also increase from the west from the afternoon and we should see isolated showers develop over those regions late in the day and at night, but particularly for the southwestern areas. The convective process tomorrow IMO will also get going a little bit ahead of the front, so isolated thunderstorms should also develop over the west during the afternoon and persist at night, but of course I am not expecting any severe activity.

Thursday: Some patchy rain across the state as the next front approaches Victoria, and we should see ahead of the front a quite unstable north/northwest airstream, so there is still the risk for isolated thunderstorms about, but particularly in the west later in the day where cloud should also increase from ahead of the system. The patchy rain will become increasingly more moderate in the west at night. The northwest winds should also strengthen again.

Friday: Well the front should rocket through the state with an intense rain band and isolated thunderstorms thrown into the mix, particularly just ahead and with the rain band, similar to Sunday. Also the chance for squall line formation over the southern parts and southwest where scattered showers will follow the rain and isolated cold cored thunderstorms will continue. We could see some severe thunderstorms perhaps on Friday as well ahead of the rain band during the morning, but best chances are over the west IMO. We will likely see another Severe Weather Warning issued as well from the BoM due to the winds which will gust above 100 km/h most likely, averaging about 55-70 km/h from the northwest.

Saturday: An interesting day, a little confusing IMO. We should see the continued unstable northwest airstream with another frontal system approaching, so showers are likely to increase a little from the southwest where isolated thunderstorms could develop again. Winds will still be strong to gale force across the state I am fairly sure.

Sunday: The cold front approaching us on Sunday will be quite strong looking at the current model prognosis, though it's likely to change a little. At this stage we should see the northwesterly winds strengthen once again to strong to gale force, and areas of rain will develop over the west during the day and spread to central areas later or at night. Isolated thunderstorms are again expected to develop ahead of the rainfall and with it, but also following it in the colder west to southwesterly winds along the coast.

Monday: Both EC and GFS are quite good looking for Monday as well with a southwesterly surge of gale force winds and widespread showers being pushed into the state, with local thunderstorms over the southern parts.

After that, I think EC has things right, with a high pressure system moving in slowly and eventually clearing out all rainfall by Friday with persistent sunny weather and temperatures warming up from Friday, ahead of the next good system the following week. Also expect some severe frosts under the high which should be with us over the weekend and into Monday.

And yeah I am glad I am not skiing now mate, would be bad snow...

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Tue Aug 18, 2009 6:48 pm

Certainly looking the goods. Am keeping an eye on Monday in particular, possible 20mm+.
Winds picked up this afternoon but has died down since.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:55 pm

Jake, excellent forecasting!! Pretty much where I stand right now.

US has pulled back a little right now but should come back later I would think. Looks a little wetter for Friday IMO - could see widespread 20mm through southern and mountain VIC and locally 30mm along the divide. Not bad follow up from the previous system.

Agree Wes, next Monday onwards looks good for 20mm+
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Wed Aug 19, 2009 4:42 am

Looks like the 12Z runs are holding if they have been slightly beefed up.. Not sure what EC has for rainfall the next 48-72 hours but I'm sure it would look good but GFS/LAPS/MLAPS all have a good drop for us here in Central Victoria and Melbourne around 10mm or more for tomorrows system and LAPS and GFS are very excited about Friday as well. Fingers crossed they hold this afternoon.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Aug 19, 2009 6:35 am

Johnno you are right - the models are, if anything, looking a bit better for the next 48 hours. Certainly should see plenty of 10mm+ falls (going by LAPS, GFS, EC) and perhaps closer to 25mm+ by Friday PM if the rather better scenarios progged by LAPS, Meso-LAPS and GFS come off. Also, a chance for some storms tomorrow with LI going negative from mid morning through central parts.

Next week provides a quick follow-up with the potential for a serious cold outbreak.

The Thur/Fri system is tapping tropical moisture from the South Indian Ocean south of India where there is a tropical low ATM Shocked . A good supply of moisture could see this event be very productive (though could be very messy on the snowfields with buckets of warm rain).

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Aug 19, 2009 12:05 pm

Good heating this afternoon should kick off some storm activity across the west. Should see it spread east tomorrow morning with Melbourne seeing a shower or storm before a period of rain tomorrow.

Nice too see US held this morning.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Wed Aug 19, 2009 12:34 pm

Hey all just back from a nightshift so a little sleepy but it's good to be home. Quite warm outside here I would say at least 20c but cloud cover is keeping it down to what it could be. Some light showers coming into the NW now but looking like they are breaking up as they move in unfortunalty. Sad Have not really been able to look at models but by the sound of all you guys sounds,like we will have a fairly good chance of some OK falls about. For now I am going on my points rule. Forecasts going for mm and I take that as points(old school). works out to be a quarter of the predicted rain and it is surprising how often it works. Of course hope I am wrong as we are starting to need a rain now for the crops and feed but I find that taking a very conservative attitude avoids let downs. Seems that the last decade has taught me to expect dry and wet is the exeption.

I would say only a skiffy shower up here tonight if any and maybe 5mm with each change for the week.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

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