Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Aug 20, 2009 6:47 pm

Watching the radar now with a touch of interest. With convective activity the ranges can either kill it or develop it further. Will be interesting to see what happens with these.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:14 pm

Hmm looks OK for you guys down there. For up here just keeping an eye in some cloud coming across from SA. Radar round here are too crap to know if it actually raining out of it. Probably not raining but by sat loop seems to be getting brighter so hope that means developing.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  DarkEye on Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:48 pm

Should the weather get wild tonight in Portland Karl or not?
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:23 pm

DarkEye, you will probably be tipping out the most rain from your gauge as compared with the rest of us. You are currently under a nice band of rain (albeit light), the winds are not as strong as recently experienced, but will increase over the next 6hrs or so.

Not overly wild conditions, just a continuation of favorable conditions Cool

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:25 pm

Should be a squally change through at about 6-8am tomorrow morning with a band of thundery rain. Should be showery overnight with northerly winds increasing. The winds will be strongest on the change and after the rain backs to showers tomorrow, late morning.

10-25mm is likely down there.

Showers increasing through Saturday afternoon with strong northerly winds
Showers increasing to rain Sunday with strong northwest winds. Chance of a storm overnight.

Then showery right through next week with areas of rain at times with the passage of cold fronts every 24-36hrs or so. Risk of hail and thunder Monday-Wednesday.

For Melbourne currently, watch this leading edge closely. A single thunderstorm is present near Castlemaine but along the line it is building slowly. Once it rolls off the range it should increase. As it comes into metro Melbourne it could be a decent period of rain at least.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  windyrob on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:32 pm

All of a sudden there is lightning on the tracker! Could be a rumble about tonight Smile
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:33 pm

Yeah just saw that too Karl, interesting, IMO we should see a few more isolated thunderstorms develop tonight ahead of the front. I was glad to see the radar this morning, very widespread rain, and we had 4.2mm to 9am, not sure how much since but we had a fair bit of heavy shower activity.

The band approaching from the west now is just moving into my area, and should thicken up overnight, and also winds here are starting to strengthen. It should be an interesting night about.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:39 pm

Very solid convective shower atm, a bit gusty and large drops coming down very nicely. Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  damiantheomen on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:42 pm

hey guys and girls just to let you all know that I experienced the loudest thunder clap I have ever heard today while working up in lysterfield, seriously deafining! affraid Not much lightning tho.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  DarkEye on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:43 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:Should be a squally change through at about 6-8am tomorrow morning with a band of thundery rain. Should be showery overnight with northerly winds increasing. The winds will be strongest on the change and after the rain backs to showers tomorrow, late morning.

10-25mm is likely down there.

Showers increasing through Saturday afternoon with strong northerly winds
Showers increasing to rain Sunday with strong northwest winds. Chance of a storm overnight.

Then showery right through next week with areas of rain at times with the passage of cold fronts every 24-36hrs or so. Risk of hail and thunder Monday-Wednesday.

Do you mean that for my area Karl, or for another?
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:50 pm

Hey DE Wink

The change will get through our area early tomorrow. Wink And what Karl says sums it up nicely mate. You can check my forecast in the General Weather Section, cause it will be basically the same as yours except for temperatures.


Last edited by Power Storm on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:52 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:52 pm

Darkeye, Karl' detailed summary was for your area Smile.

I suggest you keep an eye on the area just south of Adelaide, near Kangaroo Island. Checking the WZ lightning tracker, it has exploded over the last few frames. And given the direction the system is tracking, you may well be in the firing line!!

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:55 pm

Sniper wrote:I suggest you keep an eye on the area just south of Adelaide, near Kangaroo Island. Checking the WZ lightning tracker, it has exploded over the last few frames. And given the direction the system is tracking, you may well be in the firing line!!

I think those storms will persist right through the night and into SW Vic (hopefully here Wink ), though they should lessen a bit in lightning frequency as they reach the land, but not too much.


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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:59 pm

It's a nice setup Jake. All depends on the trajectory and speed as to whether the cells dies off or increase given the moisture already around. Seeing the tracker lighting up at 11pm makes the spirits lift!!

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:00 pm

DE it was just for you Smile Thanks Wes Smile

Some solid drops just here then too. AccAs everywhere through the sky. Not wanting to commit on radar for Melbourne yet but further showers could develop anywhere.

Thanks Jake. I think you will wake to further moderate rainfall with local thunder. That area of convection will become less lightning active and flatten out but there is further rain not being seen on radar and this activity is ahead of the frontal band so fingers crossed maximum moisture is drawn into this system as it comes across tomorrow.

Should see 10-30mm across the state now I would think. <5mm in the far north.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:02 pm

Thanks Wes and Karl!

BTW, what time do you think is good to get up say if those bands of storms near KI did reach SW vic? and its pouring here, heavier then what the radar is showing!

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:03 pm

I was just about to say...Check out the Adelaide radar...looks like widespread thunderstorm activity before the front. Might be a taste of what we may get tomorrow morning...

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:06 pm

Change is pencilled in for the SE of SA from 3-6am so maybe get up around 5am to have a quick look. The rainband looks to be forming about 2-3hrs ahead of the windshift.

Yeah this rain area is bizarre, doing completely the opposite of what I said, maybe it will reform as it crosses the bay @
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Nick Sykes on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:08 pm

Hey Guys

Looks very promising for the next 12hrs. Got a rapidly moving front coming in from the west and a very nice looking moisture plume getting dragged in from the WNW. These two look like coming together over Vic and given some very respectable falls. About the only bad thing is the front will come through quickly and push everything through quickly. I would say 20mm a good chance through the central areas, especially along the ranges.

Some nice instability ahead of and with the front so a good bet on some storm activity. LAPS has negative Li's from about now to 10am tomorrow through west/central areas. GFS is similar.

Very mild still, around 15 in the city, I love Spring, I mean winter Wink

Take Care All

Enjoy the rain Smile

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:09 pm

The Adelaide radar actually looks like widespread hail storms. Exciting

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:10 pm

Nice one Nick Smile

Good news is with this warmth, Saturday also looks fairly unstable with a shower or thunderstorm developing anywhere through the state with colder uppers following the change and surface winds going back to the N fairly quickly.

A very bizarre setup but hey not hating it!! Razz
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:13 pm

The Adelaide cells look "coldie" like, however it is still 21 degress Shocked. They appear to be packing a punch too!!
Just starting to rain here Smile

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:17 pm

They are not cold cored storms at this time, more your mid level thunderstorms. Heavy bursts of rain and strong winds. This should flatten out to rain periods and local thunder as it heads into VIC.

Lots of warm rainfall for the slopes tomorrow, maybe tending to snow tomorrow night.

BTW the rainband is showing thundery properties as it moves over Melbourne. Watch out for local thunder next 30 minutes being possible!!!
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  rikjpool on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:41 pm

Saw the pulsie starting up south of Bendigo at 10:30. Se headed out, but was all dead by the time i got to vantage point. A couple flashes in 40min and back home I go. Sad

Wonder if this stuff in Adelaide now will reach this far north tonight...trying to decide if an early morning start here is worth it...
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Sniper on Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:47 pm

Was hoping you were able to get out Rik. A shame your efforts weren't rewarded....
There's always tomorrow!! Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

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