Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Lily on Thu Aug 20, 2009 12:35 pm

6mm here Slacker, I mean, AmaroK Wink Razz

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 12:38 pm

Little over 7mm in that with hail and three close CGs.

Further development to the west. Melbourne could spike at 20C. Could be another round.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  James on Thu Aug 20, 2009 12:41 pm

i think it scooted just to the side of me as it was mostly only very distant rumbles if at all, and the edge of that rain, hail

sun is out and its warm and muggy, dont you just love that moist air smell?

seriously feels like later in the year

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Twister on Thu Aug 20, 2009 12:44 pm

Yeah had few rumbles of thunder and about 10 mins of steady rain the convection and sky is just great spring is here and its great.
Clear for now though might see more later

5mm from 4 hours of rain this morning

System has been good in Melbourne areas and coasts but On and North of Hills really looking for a drink now, hoping they can get it soon really drying up, up north

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  James on Thu Aug 20, 2009 1:21 pm

i think thats it for today

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Nick Sykes on Thu Aug 20, 2009 2:15 pm

Slight chance of something going up south of Geelong going by vis sat pic, but maybe running out of time.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Dez on Thu Aug 20, 2009 2:33 pm

Nothing hit me at all. I couldn't even hear a rumble either.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Thu Aug 20, 2009 2:42 pm

Looking good for tomorrow too...another area of rain should do well for the catchments after todays drop.

Interesting to note that the forecast is for thunderstorms until tomorrow afternoon, so it may start overnight i suspect. Nice area approaching Mt G now with lots of moisture being dragged into the system.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Aug 20, 2009 3:19 pm

May even start earlier Anthony looks to me few heavish showers have developed West of Geelong in the past 30 mins or so.

Liking the next week or so how we continue to get barraged by systems and not much chance of a quiet period dominated by highs, both GFS and EC now bring in more systems towards us the end of next week. Got a better feeling this year about September and October the fact we are seeing fairly mobile systems with some moitsure continue into the 2nd part of August holds us well into September I feel unlike the last 3 years of 2006, 07, 08.. 2006 August was just dry in general & the past 2 years August started off preety well but by Mid month all the signs were there that we were heading into Spring looking dry as there was NO moisture at all with any of the systems, I think and feel this year will be different.. I'm not saying it will be wet the next 6 to 8 weeks but we will have healthier rains than what we have had the last 3 years coming into this time of the year Smile

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Rivergirl on Thu Aug 20, 2009 3:26 pm

There was a bit of hail up here in the hills DJ but it wasn't very big so your fruit trees should be ok. Hailed for a couple of minutes then stopped. I think we've had about 2mm up here today

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Aug 20, 2009 4:43 pm

That cloud mass on the National Loop looks unbelievable! What is going on!?

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 4:49 pm

DJ spoke on it earlier in the thread. The cloud is originating from a Tropical disturbance in the Indian Ocean which is being carried by the jet stream. This cloudband will influence tomorrow mornings front, and Sunday/Monday front which will also have rain periods on it and the risk of thunderstorms.

I think we will see a few showers and thunderstorms develop from the west tonight and be in C areas by midnight or there after.

Tomorrow will be fairly windy and cloudy with a squally NW/W wind developing. Areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms in western and central area will spread eastwards and tend to showers from the west during the afternoon with local hail and thunder. Some snowfalls developing later.

Should see plenty of wind earlier on tomorrow and following the rainband.

Expecting 10-20mm across many locations tomorrow.

Event total from today is a lucky 12mm here. I think SC will top out on about 15mm for the event as the storm passed over that region too!!
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Lily on Thu Aug 20, 2009 4:54 pm

thunderstorms develop from the west tonight and be in C areas by midnight or there after.

Uh-oh, does that mean I'm going to be up late tonight Shocked lol? I'm on 11mm for today Karl, so pretty close to your total Smile

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:06 pm

Hopefully the tropical disturbance gets closer and brings better moisture inflows with it. Is that the MJO firing up out there? Heard some talk about it on the other forum last week.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  SC on Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:31 pm

Spot on Karl 15.5mm for the system so far.

Is it me but have we had more thunder storm days in the Melb metro area than last Winter?

Has anyone got any stats on that?
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:35 pm

Means that my gauge at work is working a treat!! Smile 15.5mm there too. A little less further east and north. Was a doozy of a storm!!

Lily the atmosphere is as stable as it's going to be for a little while but still the risk remains before midnight.

I think there will be more rain than thunderstorms in the upcoming system. The only chance of getting scattered storms is if the develop just ahead of the rainband.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:38 pm

Sometimes your just out of luck. First lot of rain was best 10km's south of us and the storms peak about 2-4km south of us. 4mm for the day but could have easily been 15mm. Another mild one - 13.6C in Ferny Creek.

We are on 4 thunder days for this August which is more that we got for the whole of summer 2008/09. Our weather really has gone mad affraid

I really do like the look of tomorrow. The pressures are progged to get very low (mid 990s) the there is a decent temperature contrast across the front (this combination sees 50knots+ winds at 850hPa which means more wild winds. Looks like rain rapidly spreading across the south/ranges tonight to be in central Vic just after mid-night. EC has rain on and off for a solid 6-8 hours and 10-20mm for Melbourne and the eastern burbs which looks a decent bet.

Looks like clearing quickly behind the front (another rapidly moving ridge) but unsettled weather developing by Saturday evening with more heavy showers likely Very Happy This sequence feels like mid Spring... wonder what spring will bring Question

PS EC has a big rain event for next weekend - will believe it when I see it!


Last edited by hillybilly on Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:40 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:39 pm

Also could see a few showers and thunderstorms over the NE ranges this evening, they are developing but with nocturnal cooling, topographic effect and the convective motions brewing in the mid levels, it is a good chance of seeing some action over the coming 3-4hrs and if they get going they could be locally severe.

Maybe the odd rumble down along the Mornington Peninsula over the next hour that could backbuild further NW. Must watch that.

Otherwise the rain over the western border has some thundery looks about it.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:43 pm

I must say DJ, this has the hallmarks of being quite an unprecedented wet spell in the region. Been quite a few years since this has been the case.

The sky was screaming storms this evening with AccAs lifting on dusk. I wonder if that is a sign for later.

BTW I can hear the frogs from Lakewood Reserve, I don't usually hear that til about Grand Final Week and I can smell the cherry blossom in the air.

The weather has gone completely Ken Bruce Razz

Next weekend does look insane, with another westerly belt setting up with gales til the end of the run, but we will just settle for one system at a time Razz
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 6:14 pm

I am not sure whether the incoming echoes on radar to the NW are convective, but wouldn't be surprised. Be worth watching.

Rain is accelerating very fast through western VIC. Could be raining in Melbourne pre-midnight now. Shocked
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Aug 20, 2009 6:19 pm

Classic spring weather. Mild humid and unstable ahead of strong cold fronts moving through (looks like they are finally starting to peak over our part of Aus now after hanging around WA for a very long time), and in between fast moving weak high pressure ridges. Seriously it feels like spring used to back in the 80s and 90s when it was very wet around this time of the year continuing right through to December.

From a horticultural perspective, despite the very mild weather over a prolonged period the wattles and blossoms are out pretty much on time. We have both cherry/ornamental pear blossoms out as well as the Cootamundra wattles and some other wattles in full flower in the garden. Silver wattles have only recently started flowering out in the bush. In previous years cherry blossoms etc. have been out as early as mid July in Melbourne. Shocked

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Aug 20, 2009 6:26 pm

KL I think that they are convective. Storms beginning in Melb by 10pm hopefully. Looks like a very good night of rain ahead.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Thu Aug 20, 2009 6:30 pm

Keep a close watch on the band as it crosses the ranges, I am expecting it to gain quite a bit of intensity

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Aug 20, 2009 6:35 pm

Just did a survey of the sky and I could make out some fairly chunky AccAs to the west and south - not sure further north but there was some more north on the western horizon.

Some mackeral sky above as well with high cirrus.

I think we may see an increase in mid level shower activity over the coming hours. Fingers crossed.
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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Aug 20, 2009 6:41 pm

BTW, haven't checked the gauge but apparently we got nothing here today at all, just a few spits. Evil or Very Mad

Lucky we did so well on Sunday or I would have been a slight bit frustrated.

Not sure how Nth Melbourne missed out on the afternoon storms when I am hearing reports of storms at Docklands and Richmond. 'insert confused face here'. In fact it was a rather non threatening sunny afternoon just NW of the city despite some mildly impressive Cj around. The cells must have been extremely isolated. I did see one very small Cb to the near east late afternoon I think it was.

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Re: Victoria: Unseasonal warmth. Series of cold fronts. August 18th-22nd 2009

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