Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:45 pm

BOM Quote "For the rest of Monday - Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and the chance of thunderstorms with hail. Winds northwesterly averaging up to 50 km/h."

I agree with KL. They have to be kidding. Isolated showers? If this isn't at least 'isolated rain' for Melbourne I don't know what is. The forecast would have read a lot better "For the rest of Monday - Scattered showers, tending to rain in some parts. Chance of thunderstorms with hail. Winds north-westerly averaging up to 50km/h with higher squalls possible."

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:58 pm

Terry Ryan is going Koo koo in his old age he was on today anyway I've seen them many times forecast showers or rain and all there is is isolated showers and we get nothing then today he has done the opposite even though the main models that are usually right have persistantly being saying for many runs now that this band would be coming through this evening not good enough Terry/BOM

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  firestorm on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:09 pm

3mm at 2 this arvo rained for half an hour. Plenty of lightning out to sea this evening hoping it comes ashore. The wind is clam now i think the storm is comming Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  mick on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:13 pm

Terry Ryan is one of the more opinionated forecasters from the ABC that does the rounds on the radio. You should try listening to what is on in the wee hours on ABC from the "National Weather Centre". He has been pretty spot on re rain or lack of in the last few years. The voice of gloom but pretty accurate. Id guess he is thinking its going to be so windy that we will get a radar that looks like blobs of cotton wool, not a solid band of rain.

He also might have a different set of definitions, like a lot of us who can remember before the 80s. Rain was 2 weeks solid and anything less was showers. If it rained all day in Kew and not in Camberwell, that was isolated showers lol.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  dagget on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:18 pm

Well I can confirm it is raining here and a pretty decent drop as well. Looks like 9mm so far and down to 7 degrees and getting colder. This is more like it though the wind is certainly picking up.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:29 pm

Been a nice wet day up here with 7mm so far. Split about equally between this morning and this afternoon. Quite heavy falls starting to build quickly to our west with Mt William and Cape Nelson up to 16mm and Cape Otway up to 12mm.

Is still raining up here and the radar does look very promising - with the lighter more westerly upper winds with this front and the fact that it is developing (not dying) we should do pretty well across much of Melbourne. Wouldn't be surprised to see a further 10-20mm overnight with persistent rain continuing on and off til the early hours of Tuesday (BTW watch for some heavy bursts around mid night with the front - EC has falls of more than 10mm in 3 hours with the trough passage).

Also look really good for the northeast (lets hope for more runoff) - and is actually cold enough for snow (for a change)...

BTW worth looking at the satellite loop - an absolutely classic case of frontogensis in a cold air field with warm air advection on the eastern side and strong cold air advection on the western.

More showers to follow tomorrow - the next front enters Vic just after lunch meaning it will be crossing at peak heating time Very Happy (read good chance for storms).

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:31 pm

Looking like a very wet night ahead here going by radar with the NW flow pushing solid rainfall onto the ranges. It's all filling in nicely and it should continue for most of the evening before the more convective stuff moves in overnight and tomorrow.

5.6mm in the gauge when I got home. I reckon 15-20mm is a good bet for here, (although don't want to mozz it ) and a reasonable chance of a bit more than that.

5.5C currently.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:34 pm

mick wrote:2 bands for me, 8am a few mm and 4 pm about 5mm. Great sky early on then just gloom.

BOM on radio is saying gusts to 130kph in elevated parts of the city. Official forecast has nothing more than 55kph. Not good enough to have such misinformation in this day and age.

They are saying average winds to 50 km/h, of course that is still at least 10-15 km/h wrong, and it could be worded a little better like mentioned above, higher squalls possible. And I still like Terry Ryan, a good forecaster, I am hopeing to be doing work experience with him next week. Wink

Persistent rainfall here atm, started over an hour ago and the winds are just shocking, expect them to persist tonight as well. Local hail and thunder redeveloping in the southwest overnight and tomorrow, but as the front enters tomorrow afternoon in the west, locally severe thunderstorms could develop, large hail and damaging winds being a factor. Can't wait.!


Last edited by Power Storm on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:36 pm

And what do you know a hole over Melbourne again as it rain in a radius around it Rolling Eyes

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  floydlove on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:49 pm

Yeah ridiculous John, and before it was all just slipping south of Melb but did manage to get snare a few mm's from the edge. At least it feels a bit more like winter. Still more weather to come, hopefully some decent falls for all. Smile

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:18 pm

Should be some good totals in the catchments too which is good news..as DJ said the front through at Midnightish is building nicely and will almost merge with this band as it isnt moving real fast.
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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  firestorm on Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:20 pm

its just started bucketing down out there Cool

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Jase72 on Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:22 pm

steady rain here. Can't tell you my rainfall, looks like my weather station rain section is unplugged and there is no way i am getting up on the roof hehe

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:49 pm

As previously said, nowhere near like showers anymore. It's pretty much rain, nice and steady aswell.

We can't get our hopes up now though because it seems like every second time it rains, it's always half decent.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  rikjpool on Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:52 pm

Wow, Kilmore going to have a decent recording soon...
6.8mm here so far, wonder what the night will bring...
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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  dagget on Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:56 pm

Now up to 14mm, not too bad at all considering most of it was coming in sideways and plenty more to come looking at the radar.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Nick Sykes on Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:59 pm

Hey Guys

Hopefully don't mooze this system after my 20mm pick from last Thurs/Fri fizzled hehe.

Nice cloudband has developed ahead of the front which is bringing good rain to many areas, especially on the ranges exposed tothe NW flow.
Looks like a nice cold air pool to come through as well overnight which will have some nice squalls within it.

Then there is tomorrow evenings front which is well SW on the sat pic and building nicely. This one looks like packing the most severe winds and have the potential to bring destructive winds to Vic. The WSW stream bhehind this front looks to pack a large punch as well with gales or above winds and a nice cold pool.

Enjoy the rain and take care all.

Nick

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  dagget on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:05 pm

Well recently everytime I posted the rain stopped here!, this is a nice pickup after 36mm for the last event, wish I has space to put in another 10,000 litre tank. Just thinking a week or so ago we were down to 60 percent full.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Mantis on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:06 pm

14mm here and still raining. I hope they get enough up north in the Mallee as I heard today that they are only a week away from cutting the crops for hay.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:10 pm

The wind has officially hit Lilydale. Consistent strong gusts out of nowhere. It is coinciding with the rain stopping which makes sense. The past 3 weeks have been very wild and strange. I wonder how long this will last.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:18 pm

14.7mm here so far and by the looks of things still a lot more to come. Still coming down solidly.

Hoping that the heavier band of rain some are expecting around midnight comes through, even an outside chance for as much as 30mm here perhaps. Shocked

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Johnno on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:26 pm

If you want to see how cursed we are in this City just take a look at the radar right now perfect example of Melbourne having the worst luck of all.. Been this way the past 13 years

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Twister on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:27 pm

Well just as I said, rain South of Ouyen nothing north Sad
and rain hole is in full swing here to but that's ok all concrete here.

GREAT GREAT falls in the Wimmera, South Mallee and SW Vic so many 10mm+ falls and more to come great news for them and just in time for crops and tanks and everyone.

Sadly far Nw VIC has missed out with only 80km winds, dust and less than a mm

Here i don't mind if we stuck in rain hole all night, already and 5mm and if 20mm can fall on all the farms and dams and the inflows to all the dams i will be very happy. Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:28 pm

The Melbourne radar looks like one big donut at the moment. Fingers crossed for some bigger totals overnight, have not had much here at all, 2-3mm. Pretty much the same story around Melbourne atm.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:29 pm

Yes, i was about to say the same thing Johnno.

Luckily though, it's been raining all around so atleast a lot of parts of Victoria have got some nice rain today.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

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