Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:34 pm

Same story, it hits the ranges and then breaks and re forms further east....the NW/W flows will never hit Melb hard unless there are v intense storms...possibly tomorrow if it tends SW for a while Melb will get some decent falls, although not overly optimistic as wind factor will be higher and less chance for solid rain apart from possible storms on the change.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:36 pm

I_Love_Storms wrote:Same story, it hits the ranges and then breaks and re forms further east....the NW/W flows will never hit Melb hard unless there are v intense storms...possibly tomorrow if it tends SW for a while Melb will get some decent falls, although not overly optimistic as wind factor will be higher and less chance for solid rain apart from possible storms on the change.

Yeh, i've seen the whole breakdown and then re-form pattern so many times. But this would be one of the worst i've seen.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Jase72 on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:37 pm

Barometer is 994.6 here

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:40 pm

I think it becomes more evident when the falls are heavier and more widespread. I would guess that this pattern is no stranger for Melbourne and has probably occurred throughout its history, although it is v rare to have consistent NW airflows like we are having now so it seems strange.

I cannot remember any time in the past 10 years where we have had a NW airflow for this long, it is quite amazing.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:46 pm

Is there a chance that the SW airflow will come through earlier tomorrow and the temps will barely get above 10? Or is there too much warmish air around? I was just thinking, with the barometer that low already and such an intense low pressure system approaching, you would expect very very cold air coming up, maybe with such a warm winter so far the forecasters have gotten ahead of themselves and this will bite a lot harder than they think.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:47 pm

Donut hole is being replaced now by what looks like a very promising band of rain/ Looks like the winds are turning a bit more westerly allowing this to happen.

EDIT: The airmass for tomorrow is nowhere near cold enough for a 10C in Melbourne. The general flow is too westerly for a major cold outbreak, we would need the wind direction to be more southerly.


Last edited by droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:51 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:50 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:Donut hole is being replaced now by what looks like a very promising band of rain/ Looks like the winds are turning a bit more westerly allowing this to happen.

I was about to comment on that, beat me to it. Looking more promising now. Looks we could be in for a period of rain here soon.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:51 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:Donut hole is being replaced now by what looks like a very promising band of rain/ Looks like the winds are turning a bit more westerly allowing this to happen.

Oh yes, i see it aswell. Hope it doesn't dissipate....like so many other times.

How much more is coming? Because it seems like it's not ending.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  norfolk on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:52 pm

yes that rainband is looking very nice now!

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:53 pm

Getting squalls here with the next rain band approaching Melbourne now. Look out in exposed locations, could be damaging in parts.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:54 pm

A more general period of rain is likely between 11pm and 3am with falls of 10-15mm throughout the Melbourne area achieved. In this sequence will be a period of heavy rain and strong winds with the risk of a thunderstorm.

Showers and hail to follow easing briefly before increasing during the afternoon tomorrow with a better chance for thunderstorms. Winds will be squally tomorrow but may fall short of the proportions of Friday.

Looking good later in the week to with a slow clearance before hand.

8mm so far here with better rain falling. I expect near 15-20mm tomorrow morning.
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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:00 pm

That is great to hear KL. I hope it eventuates... looking forward to some strong wind and some heavy rain, nothing better at night, oh and maybe I good shake of the windows by a thunderclap or two Smile

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:14 pm

Very nice yellow rain hitting me.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  dagget on Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:28 pm

You know Dez that could be interpreted a number of ways....more err yellow rain falling here but by the sounds of hail as well.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Blackie on Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:29 pm

Dez wrote:Very nice yellow rain hitting me.

Keep it clean Dez!!

Solid moderate rain here for the last 30 mins.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  firestorm on Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:31 pm

loving the constant rain steady as she goes upto 7mm and time for bed would expect at least double by the morning cheers

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:31 pm

These are the best isolated showers Melbourne has ever had

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:32 pm

dagget wrote:You know Dez that could be interpreted a number of ways....more err yellow rain falling here but by the sounds of hail as well.

LOL! Oops, i meant yellow from the BOM radar.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  dagget on Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:52 pm

As they say, all good things....from the radar it looks like this band is coming to an end soon from up here anyway, nice while it lasted though.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:05 pm

Well, a very productive cold front. We are going through a really good period currently.

Right on 20mm now for the day and still coming down. I could imagine another 5mm falling which would get us to the magical inch.
80.2mm for the month to date. Just 6mm to reach the monthly average. Now up to a whopping 320.7mm year to date. Rolling Eyes

Wettest August since 2005 and if we get another 20mm by Sunday it will be the wettest since 2003.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Lily on Tue Aug 25, 2009 3:54 am

Well, the ground's bone dry this morning, no rain for a while by the looks of things. Emptied 11mm from the gauge since yesterday afternoon when the rain started, currently a chilly 6.9 degrees.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Aug 25, 2009 4:14 am

Ended with 14mm here and I say the hills have had about the same.
Looking windy and fairly fine ahead of showers and storms with more rain later into tonight.

Might fair a bit better tonight rain wise. 10-20mm again looks good.

Winds will have to be monitored.
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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Alexia on Tue Aug 25, 2009 4:22 am

Wet and windy night 8mm rain.Ground is getting very wet good run off each time it rains now.

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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Mutley on Tue Aug 25, 2009 4:41 am

15mm in the last 24 hours, with many stations in the Sth East reporting similiar numbers.
Thomson Dam just 8mm to 6am however, great falls out Gippsland with 46mm @ Balook. cheers
Currently 6.6C and temperature continues to fall.
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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

Post  Australis(Shell3155) on Tue Aug 25, 2009 5:15 am

over 11mm here in Boronia, things look nice and fresh.
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Re: Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

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