Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Page 6 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 28, 2009 8:41 pm

Should see around 15-30mm in the region in the next 24hrs Scott. I would think 20mm would be nice for you guys out there.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Aug 28, 2009 8:45 pm

Well IMO a good sign, the radar(mildura) is underestimating this rain. ATM we are getting quite solid rain and the radar is showing nothing over the area. I am thinking this means that the rain is very low level and therefore under the radar beam. IMO this is a good sign

Malleefarmer

Posts : 178
Join date : 2009-05-23

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:51 pm

Scratch my last post. This thing has fizzed and we will have to hope for a storm to get anything decent now. Only a mm or 2 here. No No Crying or Very sad

Malleefarmer

Posts : 178
Join date : 2009-05-23

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 29, 2009 4:32 am

What a flop of a rain band. I think it is either the upper level winds were too strong or el
NiƱo killing the northerly component. I don't understand how things upgrade and we get jack. I don't get it!!!

It may mean better prospects for thunderstorms this afternoon but not widespread falls until a period of rain develops nearer the front.

I feel like apologizing for forecasting rain!!!
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Sniper on Sat Aug 29, 2009 4:49 am

A bit of a let-down Karl, but hey all the models mis-red this one. Uppers (as predicted on here) were far too aggressive. Seems that we are getting some great systems but just missing the knockout punch to "make it happen". Better than blocking highs, lets hope for 10mm and a bit of storm activity later.

Sniper

Posts : 652
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 40
Location : Doncaster East - 133 asl

http://www.stubbysolutions.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sat Aug 29, 2009 4:56 am

No need to apologize Karlos...a lot of things need to go right. Obviously logic will tell you the cool air aloft may have weakened, the warm air beneath slackened with cooling just enough, as you said jet above takes a toll. All these things plus more combine to make or break it. As it is its still raining, just not the thick band we were expecting.

Not to mention we are rainshadowed too in this trajectory somewhat, so that also doesnt help. Actually looking at sat photo rain band definitely fractured during the night, our best bet is now for some clearance and some action with and ahead of the front. Could be a stormy one this arvo, nice amount of moisture available so not writing it off just yet..
avatar
Anthony Violi

Posts : 256
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 43
Location : Lilydale, Melbourne

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:06 am

Furthermore, lots of clearance and Accas to the North and NW...so i think we will be ok. Nice clearance coming around lunch time ahead of the front too..
avatar
Anthony Violi

Posts : 256
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 43
Location : Lilydale, Melbourne

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:09 am

The sky looks convective to the far northwest. So does the radar so there could be hope still late morning.

Though there is a rain shadow in light N winds!!!!
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Jase72 on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:13 am

0.0mm for me Smile

Jase72

Posts : 38
Join date : 2009-08-23
Age : 45
Location : Roxburgh Park

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:14 am

Most of Melbourne is the same Jase.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:22 am

Has been a good system for the west - our time will come in Melbourne. It wasn't meant to really get started around Melbourne/central Vic until after 6am. If you look at LAPS/Meso-LAPS most of the rain falls after 10am through central and eastern areas. There is a lot of rain back through western Vic ATM slowly edging west. The progs haven't changed much on rainfall totals (perhaps a little downgrade).

Still reckon somewhere between 20 and 40mm is a good bet for Ferny Creek - on 1.2mm so far. The city somewhere between 10 and 20mm.

Up to 21mm at Mt William, 17mm at Edenhope, Kanagulk 16mm.

Fingers crossed this one delivers.

hillybilly

Posts : 742
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Ferny Creek

http://www.bom.gov.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Vic Possible Rain event - August 28th to 30th

Post  Scott Lawrance on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:24 am

Time and time again this happens! NEVER GET YOUR HOPES UP UNTIL IT HAPPENS! Can't believe this!

Scott Lawrance

Posts : 69
Join date : 2009-07-23
Age : 58
Location : Yea Victoria

http://www.ghinghin.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:24 am

Sigh so now I feel silly. From now on checking models may take 30mins just to look at each chart.

Fingers crossed. We need storms to get bigger falls.
avatar
Karl Lijnders

Posts : 1472
Join date : 2009-05-17
Age : 33
Location : Knoxfield, Victoria

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  quasar217 on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:38 am

Well this one didn't deliver did it! Good falls in the Wimmera again, nice to see there, but not much anywhere else. Oh well, my wife was worried about a wet day at the footy - I don't think that's a concern!

quasar217

Posts : 4
Join date : 2009-06-13
Location : Ringwood North

Back to top Go down

Re: Vic Possible Rain event - August 28th to 30th

Post  Scott Lawrance on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:38 am

Karl - that was not attack on you. You did the best you knew how. It's the complete and total frustration of the whole set up and situation, especially when everything is pointing to good solid falls and every reliable source is telling you so from the TV weather to all the models to the point that it couldn't not happen, that the stuff that kills you.

Scott Lawrance

Posts : 69
Join date : 2009-07-23
Age : 58
Location : Yea Victoria

http://www.ghinghin.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:42 am

Up to 6.8mm after some heavy showers earlier this morning...currently fogbound
avatar
AUSSKY

Posts : 89
Join date : 2009-05-18
Location : Trentham, 705m ASL / Abbotsford by day 40m ASL

http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  samueliza on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:52 am

the radar looks to be thickening up west of geelong. Isnt that a hopeful sign? Neutral

samueliza

Posts : 47
Join date : 2009-07-02
Age : 41
Location : Point Cook

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Jase72 on Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:53 am

The pressure is down to 997.9 now and the wind is picking up but the sun is out!!

Jase72

Posts : 38
Join date : 2009-08-23
Age : 45
Location : Roxburgh Park

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Luken on Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:07 am

There is still hope. As David said the models have forecast the majority of the rain to fall latter in the day.

Not over yet, and as quite often happens we will probably get our best fall from the system once it swings SW. Rarely do we get much from the NW these days.
avatar
Luken

Posts : 111
Join date : 2009-06-12
Age : 38
Location : Mitcham (between Rooks rd and Mitcham Rd.)

http://www.fixitmobile.com.au

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:26 am

Good morning everyone, no rain to report here either. I stick by my own personal predictions for 1-5mm for my area, we were never going to reach double figures out here. Things certainly looked good 24 hours ago but unfortunately once again things didn't go to plan. Quite windy here at presnt and pressure around 998hpa.

Melbourne Skywalker

Posts : 154
Join date : 2009-06-17
Location : Burnside Heights

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  windyrob on Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:36 am

Well i still need 9mm to reach average for august, no dent there yet. Its great to see the wimmera get a good drop considering their awful dam levels! At least the snow bunnies will be very happy about the lack of prefrontal rain! I'm still looking forward to seeing what the front produces!
avatar
windyrob

Posts : 59
Join date : 2009-08-15
Age : 40
Location : Hawthorn

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:37 am

Well wouldn't call it a good morning....Wink only 3.5mm here from that flop. looking quite convecive overhead and to the east so north central might do alright. It just further re inforces the fact that models are only a computers educated guess and they are not gospel. Once again we have been sucked in. No No No No

Malleefarmer

Posts : 178
Join date : 2009-05-23

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Jase72 on Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:38 am

Looks like Geelong is getting a nice drink at the moment.

Jase72

Posts : 38
Join date : 2009-08-23
Age : 45
Location : Roxburgh Park

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  samueliza on Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:48 am

there is surely still hope for something decent this afternoon wouldnt you think? The models suggested activity would increase this afternoon. Im still keeping my fingers crossed. Just want to get morethan the eastern burbs for once! lol Very Happy

samueliza

Posts : 47
Join date : 2009-07-02
Age : 41
Location : Point Cook

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Sat Aug 29, 2009 6:55 am

samueliza wrote:there is surely still hope for something decent this afternoon wouldnt you think? The models suggested activity would increase this afternoon. Im still keeping my fingers crossed. Just want to get morethan the eastern burbs for once! lol Very Happy

I will directed you to read my post again mate. Models are only guessing too so just keep an eye on the sky and the radar.

Malleefarmer

Posts : 178
Join date : 2009-05-23

Back to top Go down

Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum