Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Dez on Mon Aug 31, 2009 2:30 pm

I think there's a cb east of Melbourne airport and sort of south of Yan Yean. Looks small though, so i'm not sure.

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  SC on Mon Aug 31, 2009 2:31 pm

5.5mm here. Rained in the city for 2 hours non stop.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 31, 2009 2:59 pm

Just on 9.6mm here so a very good fall. Looks to be fairly scattered so a nice top up and catch up session in lieu of Saturday for us here.

A few showers, generally light now, developing off the bay for the east and south tonight.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Alexia on Mon Aug 31, 2009 3:49 pm

We have had little showers all day 7mm rain. Total for the month so far is 109.5mm our average for August is 95mm so very happy people here.

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:26 pm

This is the best period of below average rainfall we have ever seen...been fantastic, been average or above the last few months..unfortunately not everywhere but we are blessed out here.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:32 pm

Certainly are Anthony. Had average rainfall or a little above but it is all helping. A nice 9.6mm drop to start September now. Hopefully we can average 10-20mm a week and one big event for the month and we are on our way.

Looking at EC as a guide Wink there is some signs of major frontal weather in about a weeks time or so.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Sniper on Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:35 pm

Good to see that line forge ahead towards Albury. It did throw out some isolated strikes but has died off since sunset.

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:41 pm

Yes Wes we were about an hour away from thunderstorms here heating wise but good showers and areas of rain this afternon.

Highest suburban fall is Warrandyte on 13mm and Warburton on about 14mm for the afternoon. A good drop for parts of the Yarra catchment.

Had a brief heavy shower here and it's now a shade under 10mm now for the day here so no complaints!!!!
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:59 pm

3.4mm for the day here...sounded wonderful on the roof (benefit of being home sick Smile 115.6mm for the month for me, 125.4mm for Clyve 1km to the SW of me
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 31, 2009 5:27 pm

6.2mm up here in Ferny Creek. Sorta picked a hole in the band so missed out on heavier falls to our north and south. Still - about what I expected which is pleasing after all the recent duds Very Happy Ended the month with yet another mild day - 11.3C capping off a month without a single cold day.

PS Jane apparently there was a pretty good cover of snow on Sunday morning at the old saw mill in Trentham (which I believe is about 50m higher than your place - perhaps you should have climbed a tree Laughing ).

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  hillybilly on Mon Aug 31, 2009 5:38 pm

This is the best period of below average rainfall we have ever seen...been fantastic, been average or above the last few months.

Anthony much as I wished you were right I can't agree. Our rainfall in Ferny Creek has been 150mm below average over the last 4 months. It is a similar story across most of central Vic and Melbourne has just marked it's driest Jan->Aug on record. Coldstream had just 58mm in August (about 30mm below average) and I suspect that only March has seen average rainfall there. This year is shaping up as an absolute shocker except along the coast and parts of the west (unless we get a really wet spring).

We have had a huge number of rain days - I've had rain on all but 4 days in the last ~6 weeks but only one day managed to get to 20mm on one day.

The obs I've seen suggest we are in a classic green drought. The warm nights and frequent light falls mean that the annual vegetation looks great but below the surface it is horribly dry.

On a positive the next week does look pretty promising for more regular top ups.

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  AUSSKY on Mon Aug 31, 2009 6:42 pm

Missed that snow....Clyve said there were some good flurries around 2am but they didn't settle at his place either..ahem, I woke up but couldn't e bothered to get out of bed

Re soil moisture - we've been planting hazelnut trees and finished just as the rains really started .... the soil moisture had got down to 30cms very rapidly and the soil at that depth was becoming unworkable (before that, it had been only the top 2 - 3cm that were at all damp). The swale drains in my road have some permanent water in them now and our grounds aren't drying out at all after 300 or so mm in the past 3 months...all the dams in the area suddenly filled overnight (some were only half full previously) on about 26th of the month (from Gisborne to out past Trentham), so this part of the state is pretty happy atm bounce
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Snowd_on on Mon Aug 31, 2009 6:47 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:20-40mm Snow Smile Looks like some good runoff throughout. The best areas are the Upper Yarra region which had about 120mm this week but you won't hear those figures being official Wink

How come Karl? Doesnt Melbourne Water post accurate figures?

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Mantis on Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:32 pm

I think every water board does that Snow. That way they can talk down the storage levels and charge us more because it is short supply.
Just another utility that shouldnt have been privatised

4mm here today in a few heavy showers. Totally unexpected but goood

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Snowd_on on Mon Aug 31, 2009 8:15 pm

Yeh, i think that is true. so often what melbourne water report for the week doesnt correlate with what we have seen on the bom site. Its always on the low side.

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:09 pm

Good point to bring up about the 'green drought'. It seems that almost every year we get one of these at this time of year where it greens up to the point you'd swear we'd had a wet year. Having said that, this month has been genuinely wet since the 16th. 2.7mm in the gauge this evening. I'm unable to record at the official time of 9am and record in the evening instead but never the less I got 104.9mm for the month as of 6pm tonight.

The month started off with 'dribs and drabs' with just 25.8mm to the 16th on around 8 days. After the 16th however we got 79.1mm on the same number of days, so that's over three times the amount of rainfall in the same time period for the second half of the month, basically some 'decent' falls from strong and productive fronts. As a result, the ground is actually sodden, there is water lying around the place locally and you actually squelch into the ground in some parts of the yard and it's muddy, a scenario we rarely see these days whereas the soil used to be completely waterlogged for about 4 or 5 months a year in the 'good ol' days' of the 80s and 90s. Not sure exactly how far the moisture goes down in the soil in terms of cm or anything like that but i would suggest there is better soil moisture here currently than we've had for about 5 years at this time of year.

Final winter total ended up 234.3mm against an average of 261.6mm. Still technically below average Rolling Eyes, but only barely so with 90% of the mean (for the last 35 years at my place) achieved for the entire season.

So while it has still been a terribly dry year to date, (just 345.4mm against an average of 542.8mm, i.e. 63.6% of the mean), Jane's post tells the story for this area, we are doing well all of a sudden and the latest model outlook continues along the same lines of the last fortnight. If it wasn't for the horror of a nightmare of Jan and Feb where we got just 5mm (losing 104mm of our average yearly rainfall in the process), our situation would not be anywhere near as hopeless. It would still be a bit dry but nothing statistically significant. Blame Jan and Feb for this horror year. Wink I understand though that the western half of Melbourne and inner suburbs have had a bad year all year including winter and this month.

If we get average rainfall for the rest of the year (almost a pipe dream the way our general climate is now), we will end up with 657mm. That would be yet another ridiculously dry year but nothing record breaking as a stand alone year.

BTW, just had an 8 second shower. Mad

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:49 am

And thats my point DJ, if this is the worst drought we will have we have nothing to worry about. Our dams are overflowing for the second consecutive year...a lot of places granted arent as lucky, thats why i said we are blessed. Been below average for years and we still get plenty of rain, there have been lots more shorter but more severe droughts in history. The 1982/3 drought was extremely severe.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Johnno on Tue Sep 01, 2009 7:23 am

Try telling that to the people living just North and West of Melbourne Anthony whats happening here at the moment is 10 times worse than 82/83. Andrew has had more rain this Winter (which is still techincally below average there) than I have had all year! Puts things in perspective eh?
180mm here in 8.5 months (since Mid December last year) if that doesn't say alot nothing will.. I would take the "below average" that your having to this ridicolous out of this world record breaking dry this way.. At least in 1982 by Early Spring this area already had 250mm+ so do the math mate and see which one is more severe out this way we are smashing it here at the moment compare to 82 if that was severe than I have no words to describe what the heck this is around here now. My point is I'm not saying it is like this right across Victoria but I can definetly say it is alot worse than 82 out this way. May not be as widespread as 1982 but in some areas its worse/ More severe namely this area and East Gippsland which have had a shocker of a year as well.

I wouldn't get your hopes up for Thursday either looks very little in that for me the rainband looks like formiing North and East of us little to late for Central Victoria and Melbourne again & even if it does peak over us don't we ever learn that in 30 knot+ N winds these systems rarely produce in Melbourne? Whats going to be different this time to all the other 100's of times which has happend in recents weeks/months/last few years? If anyone has an answer please tell me cos I don't freaking know and see any differance to all our other 30 knots+ N wind systems and rainbands for Melbourne which 99 out of 100 times rarely work for us either way doesn't look good be lucky to score half a mm out of that band and mabye 2mm at best Eastern suburbs but thats only my opinion

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Sep 01, 2009 7:43 am

OK this is a valid discussion but I think it belongs in the Climatology forum for further analysis.

Im going to lock this thread up as the event is over and I'll eventually today (unless someone has time) start a thread in the climatology forum by cutting and pasting the last few posts..

I think it will be intersting to talk about this further!!
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

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