Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  rikjpool on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:13 pm

that is true...Seymore is a very big hotspot last year and this year prob as well... i'll have a ask around for some lookout places in Seymore. Trish's Sister and father live there in weekdays for work. Smile

So 2-4pm hey... i can handle that. Nothing toniihgt you think? Looks unstable up here atm in the middles... cant see any convection though due to underlying comeing through now as well...
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  mick on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:16 pm

Just a couple of degrees shy of a storm down here.

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:20 pm

Tonight will be a bonus if anything sparks locally. Showalter shows tonight's main activity in the nw quandrant i guess with the line coming through from sa. Maybe an odd pulsey or 2 tonight.... you and i seem to get onto those ones the most.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  AmaroK on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:21 pm

I wont be holding my breath for too much tonight. Maybe a couple of rumbles in the north west, but that will be it for tonight. My focus will definitely be for tomorrow afternoon. Going to fill the tank in the car up tonight, make sure my phone is charged (thank god for mobile internet) Just need to learn how to get too all these hotspots.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  rikjpool on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:30 pm

I forget what a pulsy is Greg... haha.

Thought this might come in handy as well. Not sure how good these hills and lookouts are, but here is a Victorian map that has all the lookouts and hill that people have tagged at some point over the course of the internet age. Try these points at own risk.

http://maps.google.com.au/maps?hl=en&q=http%3A%2F%2Farchive.bigben.id.au%2Fgoogle_earth_files%2Fmountains_vic.kml&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wl


Last edited by rikjpool on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:39 pm

Showers and the odd thunderstorm look good to my SE from here and a nice flanking line right across a convergence zone across the bay, between NW winds and S winds that have developed in response to a front moving through Bass Strait this afternoon. I think this could activate with the onset of dusk and some noctural cooling. Beyond that time frame it is hard to see them continue.

Keep an eye on that line from Ballarat to Koo-Wee Rup.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:53 pm

Looking like thundery action may be off to my S tonight. Bit hard to tell until mildura comes back on but there is some rain up there and along the edges looks to the where the action will be. Looks to be a good bit of convection in SA down into W Vic. If I was going for a look tonight I would be going around Horsham. Reckon that could go well later

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Greg Sorenson on Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:58 pm

rikjpool wrote:I forget what a pulsy is Greg... haha.

Thought this might come in handy as well. Not sure how good these hills and lookouts are, but here is a Victorian map that has all the lookouts and hill that people have tagged at some point over the course of the internet age. Try these points at own risk.


Bloody hell Rikki, that's a darn handy map!

Some better signs outside, solid line of cu to our sth... not too shabby.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 28, 2009 4:18 pm

Some good signs of nocturnal cooling going on with a modest increase in showers and the odd rumble over the west and south. Keep an eye over the next hour or so to know where we stand later.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  firestorm on Fri Aug 28, 2009 4:29 pm

how exciting i have thunder woo where did that come from! Shocked

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Twister on Fri Aug 28, 2009 4:35 pm

Well that band in SA looking nice but moving very fast, and more SSE than Se.
Malleefarmer you are looking good for wet night starting in a few hours as that band moves though, think the far Nw will miss out but should still see around 5mm in the far NW, with 10mm falls S and W of Ouyen I reckon which will be VERY welcome.

Interesting 48 hours with lots going on, this SA stuff will hang and build around the NE much of the day tomorrow, more action will fly in from SA overnight and in the morning to W Vic also front will move into SW vic late tomorrow so Showers rain and thunderstorms will be all over the state. NE, Central and Sw looking good after sun rise tomorrow many should wake to a wet morning

Showers really starting to fire West of Melbourne and Rain Just coming into NW Vic now should be raining in Mildura within the hour.

Showers should build next hour or to before weakening and been small areas of light rain

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Aug 28, 2009 4:43 pm

PM for ya twister!

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  mick on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:03 pm

Cant believe how warm it is, now a definate possible likely chance here!

EDIT, I just checked, 18.1 on the back porch, thats crazy. I didnt get to go outside all day until 4, its warmer now then then as the wind has dropped but the heat is trapped under the cloud I reckon.

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  rikjpool on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:14 pm

thats good news Mick, gives the convection more to build with. Smile

Keep an eye on that cell south of Bendigo atm, quite often they pulse over there...
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  AmaroK on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:17 pm

Radar is really firing up now. a lot more than i expected thats for sure. south eastern areas really looking like getting a good few drops.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:20 pm

Really nice deck of showers to the NW. Certainly need to watch that.

Seen two CCs to the SE of me here. Loo/Dane any thunder from those??

Looking very unsettled and not dying away... colder air must be available.
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  rikjpool on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:23 pm

Hmm... to head to the lookout or not???
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:25 pm

Well might be worth a look Rik, but there is a lot of concentrated activity south of the divide due to some convergence of the winds. Might be something within the rainband forming along the western ranges.

BTW. Looks like the rainband for C VIC is already starting. Might be a very wet night!!!
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  dagget on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:27 pm

Still warm here too, 11.5 degrees, few showers so far already.

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Jase72 on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:30 pm

Very warm here 14.7c outside

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:31 pm

Let us know if they get thundery up there Dagget Smile Your the eyes and ears for us here in the big smoke Smile

Warm it certainly is!! 15.5C here
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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  dagget on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:36 pm

Watching and waiting Karl first lot is just about to hit..

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  Dane on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:39 pm

Went outside for a look to the south Karl about 20mins ago did not see any lightning and have heard no thunder. those cells looked pretty good on radar but passed over French Island and the northern part of Phillip Island. Too far south for us. Sad

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:41 pm

Must admit that I can't see much in these showers. The main event is across the border in SA and won't be into Vic for another 6 hours (good rainfall rates with this system with rain falling at a rate of 5-10mm an hour). Would be surprised to see more than the odd mm or two from the showers.

Now tomorrow is a different story. Reckon about 20mm for Melbourne and should be lots of 20-40mm falls if it follows the script. I would be inclinded to back the GFS and meso-models which are putting lots of heavy showers through post the cloud band (perhaps wishful thinking Rolling Eyes ).

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:52 pm

Well, raining here now from convective stuff, fairly large drops too. It was quite unstable this afternoon with some Cu development becoming impressive later in the day. Nice to have some 'pre system' showers around, could sneak in a few mm in advance of the main stuff.

Looking really promising for here but I don't want to mozz it. pale Hoping for at least 25mm which is probably aiming for disappointment, but going from the models that's what I would expect locally.

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Re: Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

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