Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Fairly unstable in the mid layers this morning with AccAs about and showers to my NE.

No rainfall overnight here but looking better for thunderstorms this afternoon. 10mm possible in quick time if you get one.

Hate to say it but with every model update this system gets worse. Today looks mostly fine to me for most - would really have to get lucky to get anything - it is marginally unstable but every model keeps the the more significant rain east of Melbourne. Tomorrow will be very showery through Bass Strait but only the far south is likely to see much action then Saturday clears up. At this rate we will find ourselves well into September (once one of the most reliable rainfall months) with diddly squat.

The system for Sunday-> Tues still holds some promise but does not look like a general rain producer to me.

Also balmy out there so high evaporation rates - today's forecast is for temperatures about 4C above the average for early September.

Hope to be proved wrong...

PS a trace overnight in FC.

A short, sharp shower with what sounded like a bit of hail in it about 3am this morning but didn't register......in Abbotsford atm, but suspect I may be thrown out and told to go home earliuer than usual, so would be happy with convection (anywhere but Abbotsford )

Models are suggesting an increased level on instability in the ne by 4pm. Li's in mid 5's, CAPE around 1200.
Anyone live up in the Wadonga area?

Can't chase until after 5pm i'd suggest, so i'll have be satisfied with local stuff, if there is anything local that is

I would replot the sounding at 11am to factor in a temp of 22-23C today. May increase our chances.

I hope your right Greg, My dams are only half full or maybe half empty, either way a good thunderstorm is what's required.
9.8 deg. humidity80% , barro 117.4 & falling, DP 6.5

Greg Sorenson wrote:Models are suggesting an increased level on instability in the ne by 4pm. Li's in mid 5's, CAPE around 1200.
Anyone live up in the Wodonga area?

Can't chase until after 5pm i'd suggest, so i'll have be satisfied with local stuff, if there is anything local that is

I use to! Yeah looking good for the models up that way. Greg if we had this set up for the chase last weekend

Have Obs class all day, so will be good to see something eventuate.

brayden wrote:if we had this set up for the chase last weekend

Tell me about it

Already 19C and rising. So is my hay fever.

Is this another fizzer? Was expecting rain from early hours to this morning in the city and woke to blue skies. Seems to have been also nothing across Central and North central areas by the looks of the radar with nothing to come.

Amazing - already cracked 19C and will be 20C by 10am at this rate. What happened to winter this year

Critical thing today will be the low level moisture. The airmass is currently very dry through central areas stretching up to the NW with RH in the 20-40% range. LAPS does bring in moisture as the day goes on and has DPs near 11C in central areas mid afternoon. By far the best prospects look to be in the northeast and far southwest - Melbourne looks marginal but is in with a chance as showers lare ikely to develop in east central areas. Will be a case of watching the sky and the radar this afternoon.

Scott, the possible scattered rain forecast was associated with the pre-frontal trough. These can always be hit or miss. The front should get to central parts this avo. Dp's will rise with daytime heating and moisture build-up. We may not get it in buckets, but some areas should have some action this avo, ie the ne districts.

Thanks Greg for the explanation. I s'pose weather is an inaccurate science at the best of times rarely goes to plan!

Lol, yer.... it can be frustrating at times. If you're up at Yea, you're probably in a better position than the rest of us. I hope you get a direct hit with dams over flowing mate, long over due for back up systems to consecutively dump rain.

Exactly Greg - my main concern is to have the dams full before the onset of summer and we are running out of time. Need to get a good storm downpour or some steady rain for run off.

Oh how i wish i was not working today. Beautiful out there if you ignore the winds. Very warm already. Had some howling wind last night. had to get up and check the solar heating for the pool as it was flapping about all night.

Not quite sure what to expect from this afternoon, looks like a bit of moisture up north early today, but i believe the wind will be the most significant part of todays activities, with local gusts already clocked over 40km/h, may see some higher numbers before the slight change later in the afternoon, would i be correct in suggesting most of the east will only see isolated shower? and the chance of 1 or 2 rumbles? from the basic charts im looking at, will probably be hit by that damn hole in the clouds over melbourne again.

Looks like a line of showers are popping up already towards Seymour.

Talk about SDS, I'm getting excited over the Ac around! lol

Don't no what happened in my last post! My work details for all to see!

was gonna say...... that is kinda weird, lol.

Brayden, i'm hearin' ya buddy.

Cells starting to develop near Mt. Gambier, but will fall into the radar black home shortly, sigh.

Theres the 1st 20c of the season gone, could crack 22c in Melbourne today.

Signs next week of seeing temps around 25c by next Thursday or Friday.

Sorry Scott you will hardly see anything today unless you get a storm perhaps Sunday you could get 5mm or so otherwise its looking like a increasinly dry outlook El Nino starting to take hold.

That's what I was frightened of. Something over Yea at the moment but whether it is hitting the ground or not is another thing.

Once again soon as it hits Sept bang storms develop around Mildura and looking at radar that is happening.
Nice cells going up there and becoming lightning active breeding ground up there really is.
Its all moving quickly Se should approach central areas after 4pm

Yep once again I feel Its happen the tap has turned off again and we are looking at once again 2 dry warm months same every year it really sucks

Watch for quite a few storms about today in the SW NW and NE might see rumble move into this area after 4pm if we are lucky

Boy it warm and windy

And it's off and running near Mildura!!!

Should be interesting to see how it develops off the Grampians and Western ranges this afternoon. Need it to get to 22-23C for any chance of something decent.