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Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

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Post  Karl Lijnders Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:40 pm

Yes looking very similar to about 2 weeks ago today with a bit of convection turning to possibly an area of moderate rain before clearing at sundown. Hopefully this scenario comes off with 5-10mm about the region and over the catchment.
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Post  Power Storm Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:38 pm

Well just got back from the Melbourne show, left Thursday night, and had a fantastic time. Met some presenters from the Weather Channel, and it was quite interesting to see how they got into the business. Otherwise, overall a great show with fantastic weather conditions. I was told that here as well it was warm and just Spring type! Wink

I will just look into the models a little more and shortly have a forecast out for tomorrow and the rest of the forecast period.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:00 pm

Most of the presenters from the WC were from infomercial ads and things like that. You don't need a degree in Science, more like journalism or good looks these days Rolling Eyes

Anyhow good to have you back Jake. I am sure the country side was nice and green!!!
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Post  Power Storm Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:06 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:Most of the presenters from the WC were from infomercial ads and things like that. You don't need a degree in Science, more like journalism or good looks these days Rolling Eyes

Well then, there is no chance for me.... lol.... bounce What they really need is someone with a good weather knowledge!!!! Thanks Karl!!! Wink

And just quickly for tomorrow after looking at the models and latest charts etc... we should see isolated showers develop near the change and on the ranges mostly. Isolated thunderstorms could develop as well near the change, but IMO I would give the area NW of Melbourne a good shot tomorrow for one!

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Post  Blackie Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:17 pm

Yeah I find myself disappointed with presenters on the WC most of the time. They don't seem to have any real interest or knowledge in weather and appear to be there only as an entree into show business. Graham Creed was an exception. Looking forward to a cobalt blue spring sky tomorrow and hopefully some bubbles in the afternoon.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:30 pm

Jake looking at the satellite there appears to be a nice field of cold air and I think this could support a fair deal of thunderstorm activity tomorrow across southern VIC with scattered to widespread showers. These events sometimes have the potential to flatten into slow moving areas of rainfall.

BTW Jake your knowledge and enthusiasm will get you to your dream and that is something I understand!!
Graham was a champion back in the day on the WC however since they moved to a different company it is all about colours rather than info!!

And if I hear the weekend lady refer to Strahan and Burnie one more time on her fly around in reference to TAS weather, I will just loose it!!

Anyhow back to the weather, a clearish start looks good and we will need a temp of around 22C to get some decent thunderstorms.
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Post  hillybilly Sat Sep 19, 2009 5:03 am

Still looks mildly interesting today. Trough moving through to be near Melbourne at 4pm. The low level DPs will be near 10C at the time the trough comes through central areas and LI near 0 (BTW wouldn't be surprised to see is get above the predicted 21C just before the front). Looks like a 2-5mm event but with it being showers/storms you could get lucky. IMHO can't see anything too significant (though will get gusty). Case of watching the sky and the radar.

Tip about 2mm for Ferny Creek (but the actual amount will come down to dumb luck). Should see a few rumbles on the trough.

PS Jake there are a few ex-BoM people at Weather Channel (those with the better communication skills!). Is a really interesting set up at Fox (and the Nickelodeon studio is next door with oversized cartoons etc).

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Post  Johnno Sat Sep 19, 2009 7:13 am

1st of all would like to say GO SAINTS!!!!! Its a small world I bumped into Mike Larkin yesterday evening outside the MCG when I went to the match last night he was doing hes nightly 558pm weather cross once he finished I went up to him and shook his hand and the way he is on camera he is off camera full of life cracking jokes lol but nice guy hes a bombers supporter haha & he thought the saints would win by 12 goals told him they wouldn't more likely 4 goals even I was wrong haha but I think Mike should stick to his day job lol great night though all round seeing the saints win in a thriller.

All eyes on the sky today if it gets to 23c then could get fairly active around 3-5pm

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Post  Power Storm Sat Sep 19, 2009 7:28 am

Haha, thanks guys Very Happy Yeah I see Dick Whiticker (is that spelt right) is the Senior MET there, so not all things are bad for them! And John, congrats on meeting him mate. I see he has the right mind in supporting the bombers!!! Laughing

Anyhow, today still looking ok. Karl's comments above are remaining in line, so yeah as DJ says, its a satellite and radar watch today. Should be interesting. I am hopeing to get a storm, but a lot of hit and miss involved today.

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Post  norfolk Sat Sep 19, 2009 8:02 am

love this chat about weather presenters, but I do find the weather channel annoying at times because I think even I seem to know more than the presenters!

Anyway, it feels very warm outside at the moment, and I actually have 20 degrees outside just like laverton. Very warm unlike the city which is at 17.

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Post  Sniper Sat Sep 19, 2009 8:27 am

This cloud may put a cap on things. Nice temp increase this morning, but like John mentioned, need the temp to reach 23 for thing to get firing. We will need to watch the sky as on cue, the radar is down.

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Post  Power Storm Sat Sep 19, 2009 8:45 am

Nice and sunny here, temperature here up to 18. Strange how both the Melbourne and Mt. Gambier radars are not working currently. Going to be hard watching storms firing on them if they develop. SAT will have to tell the picture for now.

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Post  norfolk Sat Sep 19, 2009 8:53 am

It was nice and sunny earlier, clouds have developed but while most of the sky is cloudy breaks in the cloud are letting the sun shine at times, and the winds have picked up as well. It doesnt look like much will develop at this stage but I wouldn't be surprised if these warm temps contine, I have 21 here now Smile

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Post  typhoon29 Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:16 am

rather cool and overcast here with a spit of rain. Can't see storms here today too cold. Mind you it was 11 at 7am this morning which is warm. It is 12 now. Rain a bit more steadier.
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Post  mick Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:30 am

Temp has dropped a bit hee and early wind change has ruined things, ruined, ruined ruined!

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Post  norfolk Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:53 am

yes temps are now dropping here too, it is down to 18 from a very early top of 21. Dont see anything happening now Sad

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Post  Melbourne Skywalker Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:54 am

Gotta love our ever reliable radars in this state. If it's not Mt Gambier offline it's Melbourne. Looks like a line of showers about to push through here soon. Might pick up 1 or 2mm but thats about all.

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Post  Bobman Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:23 am

Just starting to rain here in Moorabbin. Looks like not much else after this band passes.

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Post  dagget Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:36 am

Nice little bit of rain from this band so far, looking like 1.5mm here...

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Post  Power Storm Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:53 am

Cell just developed over us, very heavy rainfall. It feels like thunderstorms could happen...

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Post  Sniper Sat Sep 19, 2009 11:00 am

Excellent to hear Jake. After this band clears, temps are quickly on the rise again!!
This band will boost the DP's. Reckon we are a 50/50 chance this afternoon.

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Post  Johnno Sat Sep 19, 2009 11:28 am

Yes that middle junk has gone now allowing for clearer skies to come through should warm things up again abit in N winds the unstable air seems to be around Colac don't give up guys I think the fun is about to begin... Was never going to be a very active day but there will be something about the next 2 to 3 hours coming though

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Post  hillybilly Sat Sep 19, 2009 11:32 am

Nice steady band of rain (all mid level stuff) - seems to have a bit of convection in it as the drop are very big at times.

There are two band of convection behind the rainband on the Viz sat pic. The winds show convergence between NE and W flow into this two bands which seem to mark the trough line. They should fire up quickly in the clear air behind the rain and be into Melbourne in 60-90 minutes. Worth having the camera ready just in case.

Up to about 2mm up here now.

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Post  Greg Sorenson Sat Sep 19, 2009 11:40 am

Am locked and loaded. Will be heading out shortly to get some foreground subject matter. Could make for some dramatic photography.
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Post  Johnno Sat Sep 19, 2009 11:46 am

Dp's now up to 12c and 13c around Geelong and Avalon should all help with temps near 20c again

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