Re: Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

floydlove Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:50 pm

DC449 wrote:Where abouts did you see the CC Floyd? i heard thunder but no Lightning

Saw three CC's looking SW over the CBD. No thunder.

norfolk Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:51 pm

thought i heard thunder but then realised it was a plane flying overhead...how come I never hear thunder? Sad

JC Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:51 pm

Snowd_on wrote:
JC wrote:Best up coming prospective week of weather that I can remember..
Beats anything that this winter managed to dish up - hope it can deliver for all.
If todays GFS are anything to go by Saturday and Sunday have potential to deliver some EXTENSIVE low level snowfall the alps. 50cm is certainly not out of the question by the weeks end and snow for some of the lower hills too.

Great widespread rainband which can be clearly seen on radar atm.
Should be some good totals about from this band, i'm hoping for a solid 10mm round here in Elwood by tomorrow.

Hilly Billy i'll make sure that I go home tomorrow afternoon via the bay and will see some spillage across the road if it is really on..

Macedon Ranges snow JC?

I can't see why upon current GFS model guidance that there wouldn't be a flake or two on Friday night / monday morning. Mt Macedon usually does best I have noticed from the north west before things swing around to the west/south west (if it's cold enough!). The amount of moisture progged for fri night and sat is quite impressive and temps are particularly cold.

I see snow down to around the 1000 metre mark but IMO the potential is there for lower. Anyway enough crystal ball gazing but for what has been a pitiful season for low level snow it has caught my eye...

I got a rumble before and it is still coming down nicely here.
As Karl suggested some stormier weather out the back edge and some embedded rumbles in this band for the luckier ones.

Great totals adding up - here's to a (hopefully) very wet week!

Twister Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:58 pm

BEST SYSTEM IN AGES Very Happy

Many 15-25mm falls right across central east and Se SA
Many 15-25mm falls right across W, SW, NW and Central Vic, bar few spots that got less than 10mm
Rest all around 8-15mm with many areas still to get another 5-10mm

Even the Gippy has had 5-10mm with more to come
Steady thick rains through here now should continue for another hour or so
All the Yellow dots in VIC are great and much more to come Very Happy

So much more for the South and mount areas looking great, shame NE only got about 8-15mm rain really not stacking up there hopefully loads more to come in the following week which looks likely.

Next round in W SA dumping another solid band of rain and few Thunderstorms, should be another interesting afternoon tomorrow, but with more focus on the Showers Rain no massive thunderstorms tomorrow, but they will still be around.

12mm and still raining Very Happy

**Karl Lijnders** Mon Sep 21, 2009 10:03 pm

14mm here with no thunder. Moderate to heavy rain to last till dawn. Melbourne could get towards 20mm

Bobman Mon Sep 21, 2009 10:48 pm

Ah. It feels like 2003 / 2004 in some ways. Just steady long duration rainfall at night. Love it.

I saw a few flashes in the sky after 11pm. Looks like the band fizzled around the Thomson.

Australis(Shell3155) Mon Sep 21, 2009 11:55 pm

17.5mm to 1.50am. Horsham on 42mm will be some happy people with wet feet that's for sure.

Bobman Tue Sep 22, 2009 12:41 am

Avalon with 31.8mm from 9pm last night to 1.40am this morning. Looks like all suburbs got a decent amount. Good week with more to come. I'd say most suburbs would now be close to beating their 1855-2008 September averages. Wonder how far behind we are on rainfall to date from January, compared to last year, across Melbourne.

Lily Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:13 am

Good morning Smile

Well, 17.5mm overnight. I've been up since 4am and there's been nothing on the radar since, just a wet, grey morning.

**Karl Lijnders** Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:21 am

Finished with 19mm here. Good result.

Hard to say what would happen today. Lots of dynamics. Could see another 5mm

SC Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:28 am

14.5mm here.

**Anthony Violi** Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:31 am

16mm at home...excellent start.

Think it will still he unstable this arvo but Bom seem pretty conservative, all eyes now on tomorrows action and where the Low will position itself..

**Johnno** Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:43 am

Must of got lucky here had 23mm one of the best falls in the North western suburbs I would think considering Melb Apt had 16mm Essendon Apt neally 15mm and same with the City just SE of me. I'm rapt.

Australis(Shell3155) Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:55 am

shakes fists in the air for Johnno.. about time he got RAIN..

mladz Tue Sep 22, 2009 5:04 am

just went through my PMs on WZ and saw the nessage from johnoo..

first post here but let me say that I am DELIGHTED with the 29mm I tipped out this morning here in Corio (Geelong).. done alot better than expected. Good to see Avalon just shy of 32mm, great system..

**Karl Lijnders** Tue Sep 22, 2009 5:13 am

Welcome aboard mladz

I swear looking at the sat pic that blob is heading more SE...

**hillybilly** Tue Sep 22, 2009 5:15 am

Very happy to report 24mm from Ferny Creek overnight. Just a long steady rain spread over 6 hours. Very humid up there this morning temp 10C and DP of 10C with light drizzle.

Strikes me that this is one of the best state wide events in recent years. Not overly heavy but almost everywhere scored (with more to come). Top numbers so far...
Horsham 43mm
Ben Nevis 34mm
Stawell 33mm
Avalon 32mm
Rockbank 31mm

Today's looks pretty boring for us as we sit between systems - perhaps - the best likely to happen in the north of the state. Will have to wait to the SW flow re-establishes in the south tonight behind the developing low.

**hillybilly** Tue Sep 22, 2009 5:19 am

I swear looking at the sat pic that blob is heading more SE.

Let's hope so Karl - btw is frustrating today in the south as the low over Tassie is killing the upslide over us (warm air advection). Not often that I wish a low would die .