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Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

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Victoria:  Thunderstorm Outbreak.  October 28th-November 3rd 2009 - Page 21 Empty Re: Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

Post  Hinezy Sat Oct 31, 2009 12:56 am

I went for a chase with Brayden as soon as we knocked off work this afternoon and headed down towards Colac. The structure looked really nice on the cell that seemed to be travelling along the Great Ocean Road for a while. We ended up stopping in between Colac and Lorne right on about sunset.. the storm that was heading towards Lorne seemed to be heading out over the water for a while, but soon after this point the storm started to backbuild its way northwards and soon developed into a line that extended up towards Ballarat. For something that was only showing weak intensity at the time on radar.. it was VERY lightning active! There were CG's every 5 or 10 seconds at times.

Anyway Brayden set up the camera to get some lightning shots.. and this is how it looked as it approached where we were..

Victoria:  Thunderstorm Outbreak.  October 28th-November 3rd 2009 - Page 21 Colac310

Victoria:  Thunderstorm Outbreak.  October 28th-November 3rd 2009 - Page 21 Colac210

Then we core punched it back up to Werribee on the beach to try and watch it approach again and had some VERY close CG's..

Victoria:  Thunderstorm Outbreak.  October 28th-November 3rd 2009 - Page 21 Wer10

It was definitely one of the best light shows that i've had in quite a while!

Hinezy

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Post  Sniper Sat Oct 31, 2009 3:40 am

Fantastics photos and stories gang!!

Well I had a pretty unsuccessful chase last night. A mate and I decided to head towards Kilmore. We drove up via Whittelsea and stopped at Upper Plenty. We were approaching dusk and wanted to grab some shots while some reasonable light was on offer. Some nice structure was developing albeit a fair distance away. We decided to stay put for an hour and I noticed a sharp tower develop to our SE which was the Springvale storm cell. It really developed quickly and even from our vantage point see it throw out 2-3 CG's. I was hoping that the Kilmore/Kinglake area was going to explode like it did on Thursday afternoon but alas it didn't eventuate. We were seeing the increased activity from the Daylesford cell past 9pm and ongoing activity from the large mass south of Ballarat.

We jumped in the car and headed over to Donnybrook/Kalkallo. By this stage (10.15pm) it had subsided so we decided to call it a night. Good to get out, but disappointed that we didn't pick the right spot ie. Not adventurous enough to get closer. Hindsight says I should have cooled my heels and gone up to Mount D, but hey I'm still learning this caper Smile.

Nice fine clear morning, hopefully we get another opportunity today!!!

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Post  Johnno Sat Oct 31, 2009 3:55 am

Man I live in a hole here you would think I lived in another city or something.. eastern suburbs copped it even 10ks West of me copped it (Laverton) and I end up with a measly 3mm here last night

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Post  Anthony Violi Sat Oct 31, 2009 3:59 am

Well what an awesome day that was, very similar to Dec 03 with the storm forming on the convergence line and going for many hours..lightning was truly insane and most high level so thunder was a bit dulled.

Much better today with the sun, shear is still tipped to be coming out of the W/NW so northern areas of Melbourne will do well again, just have to wait and see whether anything gets going further South for the rest of Melbourne. Either way they will be big and very wet..LAPS has Dps at 18 - 20 tonight at11pm Shocked

LAPS now jumping all over Monday with 15 - 30mm statewide so with the moisture available should be another epic day. Still strange how GFS doesnt translate that into accumulated rainfall totals but nonetheless its there.
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Post  Johnno Sat Oct 31, 2009 4:06 am

hillybilly wrote:Lots of stuff now firing up in central Vic. With the slow movement could see some very heavy falls if your lucky of the these. Has the potential to be one of those nights where cloud top cooling keeps things going all night.

BTW looking across the models ACCESS seems to have the best handle on things and hasn't changes in 3+ days. It got the convection today in the west and stalls the trough west of Melbourne tomorrow with a rainfall/storms foccusing on central/east central areas. It then brings the Monday low as an easterly low with heavy rain (like the EC scenario but a little further north).

BTW just got a BIG boom from the storm just south of us Very Happy

How good is the ACCESS model DJ?

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Post  hillybilly Sat Oct 31, 2009 4:32 am

What a night. Is years since I've seen such intense lightening sustained. We were inside the storm when it surged on its northern edge. Was strange with fog, torrential rain, and a flash going off every second (or so). Funny thing is that we heard only faint thunder during most of it despite flashes directly overhead Question

Had a peak rainfall rate of 182.8mm/hr and sustained over 100mm/hr for about 15 minutes. Also a small number of big hail stones thrown in - up to (around) 20 cent size. 32.8mm in the end - the footpaths got a great wash! Hard to believe that some places in central areas got a big fat zero.

Today splits the state in half. With the surface trough moving into western areas and then central areas. MESOLAPS has it near Melbourne at 8pm. Instability peaks near and south of the ranges - my gut feeling is that initially storms will fire over the ranges then will focus on the trough as the day goes on, meaning central areas could well be in for a great arvo. Is going to be Darwin like with around 30C and DP up to 20C. Very Happy

(Johnno ACCESS is really new but for this event it seems to have been the best model. Hardly changed and picked the convection yesterday.)

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Post  Madmel Sat Oct 31, 2009 4:33 am

Insane pics guys! Very Happy

I had to turn the puter off before the storm hit here last night, there was a few snap, crackles and BOOMS last night when it hit here (and yes Karl a big belated bday pressie for me!! LOL), went to bed and enjoyed the lighting show through the French Doors for say about 30-40mins and upto a hour of rumbles.

Rain hit hard here last night, scored only 7mm from the downpour but shows you that it increased in intensity overtime since Laverton scored nearly over 15mm!! cyclops

We shall see how today pans out

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Post  Johnno Sat Oct 31, 2009 4:51 am

Thanks DJ & thanks everyone else for their inputs and stories of last night sounds like the majority of you copped it and did well.

Weak trough convergance between Geelong and Avalon at the moment with Weak SE winds and 96% humidity in Geelong with temp around 14c while fair bit warmer towards Avalon and other Melbourne suburbs already so we may see storms develop down there by Midday perhaps

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Post  Johnno Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:14 am

As of 8am.. Westmere, Portland, Cape Nelson, Cape Otway, Aireys Inlet have 100% Humidity I would suspect that could be sea fog behind the weak trough?

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Post  droughtbreaker Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:16 am

hillybilly wrote: Hard to believe that some places in central areas got a big fat zero.

You really know how to rub it in don't you. Laughing

Dry as the proverbial here.

Today looking like yesterday was supposed to be. Moisture up a notch, a trough to work with and this time crystal clear skies so the temp will rocket up to 30s at sea level. Another day, another chance for something to get going here. Even if we don't get anything it will be a great day watching it all evolve, structure etc.

Sunday now looking a lot better for us, Monday continuing to look really promising. Might be all stormed out by the end of it.

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Post  Rhino Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:22 am

Know how you feel Andrew, not even one drop here yet, all I wan't is 5mm. Anyway today is another day, to be dissapointed that is. Rolling Eyes Good to see some rain around though.

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Post  hillybilly Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:29 am

You really know how to rub it in don't you.

Tend to find thundery situations near upper ridges often give huge rainfall gradients as the stuff has not got great upper support. Organisation tends to be at a more local scale and slow moving. The current set up has certainly been one of the stranger and more persistent I have seen - the lead up with a big high a long way south set up a very unusual combination of very high dewpoints and temperatures a long way south.

Is warming up very quickly out there - should be near 30C across the burbs by mid morning.

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Post  Lily Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:31 am

Great reports and love the pics, they're brilliant everyone Smile The kids are a bit tired this morning after being woken up by their storm-crazed mother at midnight to watch the show but the "Ooooohs" and the "Woah's" that they were saying last night I think made it all worthwhile - very impressive show put on by mother nature.

19mm here since 9am yesterday, 14mm from the storms last night. Amazing the difference a few km's can make when you look at the difference between me, Karl, Hillybilly & Shell (Piggy, we really need to get you a gauge up in Mt Evelyn!).

We're off to Ballarat today for a few days, I'm wondering what time we should be setting off to avoid getting too drenched while setting up camp?!

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Post  mick Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:37 am

I was too frightened to get out of bed, orright I was too lazy. Lightning without
thunder and thunder without lightning and about an inch of rain. Absolutely belted down for about 20 minutes. fantastic piccies everyone.

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Post  The Watto Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:43 am

I have to admit I was taken by suprise by last nights events... Down here in Mentone we copped it big time about 11.20PM

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Post  Melbourne Skywalker Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:46 am

Johnno wrote:Man I live in a hole here you would think I lived in another city or something.. eastern suburbs copped it even 10ks West of me copped it (Laverton) and I end up with a measly 3mm here last night

Morning all, great lightning show last night but that was about it. Johnno you the words right out of my mouth! Been thinking excactly the same thing when it comes to my area. We miss all the good stuff here everytime! Mad

Very steamy out there atm. I'm heading up to Doreen this morning so may get to see something develop up there later.

Only 2mm recorded here last night, apparently Laverton down the road got 15mm, crazy! Shocked

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Post  The Watto Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:57 am

Does anyone know if them cooler southerly winds to the south west are likely to extend into Melbourne this morning or will them places eventually warm up as the day progresses?

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Post  Luken Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:11 am

Did I read right that Karl got 37mm?

Im what 8-10km away approx to the ENE and I got maybe 5mm from that whole band around mid night. Can't believe I missed it. It was so close.

I had constant thunder and CC but all just to the S of me. Must have missed by "that much" Wink

Today has a good feel about it. I can see some great cells popping up this arvo. Good luck everyone!
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Post  rikjpool Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:13 am

Seems like i missed an amazing show last night whilst at the theater. Bugger. ah well.

Seems like its going to be a nice warm day. So where are the storm hotspots today? Eastern Ranges mostly?!
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Post  Bobman Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:37 am

Great shots guys.

The lightning looked great last night. Can't believe it's the last day of October now and 24 hours ago this area was 39mm under the average rainfall for the month, yet there was 29mm overnight, so only 10mm behind. Hope November delivers as well.

Already over 25 degrees now outside.

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Post  Luken Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:43 am

Should see that mark passed by the end of the day Bobman.
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Post  Dane Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:43 am

Fantastic storm here last night, best for ages, mostly cc lightning but a few cg's. very lightning active with a flash rate of up to 20 per minute.
Scored 29.4mm's up to 9am with 27mm's of that from the storm. Takes us to 81mm's for the month which is above the average of 74mm's. YTD now 556mm's, cant believe that the city is still under 300mm's for the year.
Sun is out and currently 23/19 very humid, with the clear skies today could be even bigger than yesterday, got that feel about it.

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Post  Johnno Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:47 am

You have more than doubled me Dane I'm still only on 270mm for the year and I'm only 7ks NW of the City Sad Been a terrible year this way I think even places like Horsham and that have had more rain than me this year. My average is normally 60mm for October I've had 1/3 of that stuck on 20mm for the month which is 40mm below the average. Notice parks and lawns around here yesterday have actually started going yellow again and brown in some areas.

Theres some sort of windchange trying to move up the bay at the moment with cooler southerlies behind it is also going through the Outer Western suburbs hope this stalls and doesn't wreck our chances of storms for later.


Last edited by Johnno on Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:54 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post  The Watto Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:53 am

Johnno wrote:You have more than doubled me Dane I'm still only on 270mm for the year and I'm only 7ks NW of the City Sad Been a terrible year this way I think even places like Horsham and that have had more rain than me this year

Theres some sort of windchange trying to move up the bay at the moment with cooler southerlies behind it is also going through the Outer Western suburbs hope this stalls and doesn't wreck our chances of storms for later.

Hi Johnno, been watching that cooler change for a while now, it looks like the northerlies are now starting to make there way down the bay now, which is good

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Post  AUS_Twisted Sat Oct 31, 2009 7:06 am

Great pics everyone, hope there's another oppurtunity tonight

Twister wrote:
The lighting out Bendigo way around 8-9pm was VERY impressive it was all CGs it was unreal and were multiple at times to was great to watch looks like you got the same show to Aus_Twisted impressive wasn't it.

Yep it was awesome for sure Twister, I've never actually done a chase like this before driving down unknown roads with lightning going off all around me (need to get a laptop one day to check radar etc and check maps a lot faster) fun times Very Happy

BTW Twister, you don't happen to own a ute do you? had one go flying past me on the dirt road I took the pics from when I was packing up
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